Covid-19 Megathread

[Onyx2]

1 hour ago, johnnyboy said:

However, we've now started recording deaths differently (a shift in hours and procedures) so today's deaths might not necessarily be today's deaths any more.

Yeah there's a lot of wobbly stuff in it but it's what we have. Really hard to normalise. More to show trends that we aren't accelerating at the same rate as Italy. 

[tiger_rick]

1 hour ago, Onyx2 said:

I've been looking at UK versus Italy as we have similar population sizes, and WHO think UK is around 14 days behind Italy. There are differences in terms of how Italy is lots of separate regions connected by large cities, and like the US they have an element of devolved legislature. This means regions shut down gradually rather than in a blanket way as they (finally) did here. I've not shared this elsewhere but here's cases and deaths in the two countries, with the UK staggered forward two weeks (so 1st March in Italy is 15th March in the UK).

I've put it in spoiler tags because not everyone wants to face the numbers.

 

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It shows the Italian death rate is continuing to rise while the UK day on day isn't yet having the steep climb. Cases are rising at similar rates but mortality isn't. Schools were closed over a number of days in Italy rather than one deadline in the UK, additionally just being further along in the crisis likely means we are able to diagnose and give mitigating advice.

Source: wikipedia

 

Really interesting stuff. Doesn't the population of Italy skew quite old, hence explaining some of the high death rate?

[The King Of Swing]

From what I have read (so take it with a pinch of salt) lot of older people apparently live with family members as well which possibly sped up the spread of the virus.

Hasn't a hospital been linked to it? Read something about an infected patient making multiple undetected trips to a hospital.

[GeronimoJacksBeard]

3 hours ago, WyattSheepMask said:

While I want to agree with you, I can’t help but feel like once things get relaxed (whenever that may be), the wider population will just go back to how we were before things escalated. We’ve seen plenty of people who either just don’t get the seriousness of it all or just blatantly flout what they’re being told to do

Something i've not really seen discussed a whole lot currently, but i'm fascinated that may change (and surely has to) our lives in the future is the positive affects this could have on climate change. A month or so back, when i was still working and this was all really starting to kick off - just to make some interesting conversation on the subject as Covid was all anyone was talking about and to play a bit of devils advocate i was being all tinfoil hat theory and would say something along the lines of "It's interesting how everything this seems to affect are things that are issues contributing to climate change - overpopulation, fuel emissions, big events with huge mass gatherings, etc".

Now, i don't actually think this is a man-made virus or government conspiracy to solve climate change or anything like that before anyone jumps on me. As i said, was merely creating some interesting debate/conversation. My main point being that, the big measures that the world knows it's needed to address and change to combat climate change, not nearly enough people would. People just wouldn't be willing to change their way of lives, even with the fear and knowledge of the long term affects, presumably because it just doesn't affect us enough immediately for us to take real action. Earlier in the year it was being said that we were basically to the point of no return on the matter, if DRASTIC action wasn't taken, we are basically fucked. Even with that knowledge, it wouldn't truly change how we live. A very sudden, immediate, very real fear that does affect us RIGHT NOW has caused us to drastically change our way of life immediately. If this does all continue for a number of months and the evidence continues to suggest the actions taken are having a positive impact on climate change, i'm interested to see if once COVID-19 issues have settled, whether we do just go completely back to normal and our usual way of life, or the climate change evidence is too strong to be ignored any more that periods like this could be enforced every so often in future or whether they even could. Whether the fear of the impact on global economy is too great for that to be a reality, but if we manage to live like this for an extended period now and get through it and the evidence suggests it's what we need to do to stop the rapid rate of climate change, could we live like this for short periods every so often in the future? 

[Onyx2]

38 minutes ago, tiger_rick said:

Really interesting stuff. Doesn't the population of Italy skew quite old, hence explaining some of the high death rate?

I didn't realise that, but yes:

[Hannibal Scorch]

@GeronimoJacksBeard funnily enough, we discussed this at work this morning https://www.businessinsider.com/quarantines-air-pollution-china-but-wont-last-for-long-expert-2020-3?r=US&IR=T

[Loki]

This virus is not man made, indeed it’s the opposite.  It’s natural outcome of a population exceeding the resources of its habitat.

 Normally in nature populations are self regulating, through disease and other factors.  We’ve artificially suppressed that with our technology but you could argue that was unlikely to last forever.

[CavemanLynn]

The idea of it being man-made just some people's way of attempting to rationalise nature's way, by trying to believe that somebody has to be controlling it. It's not the case, and nature is much more random and unthinking than that. Bugs happen and will keep happening, and as far as we advance, the race for survival will never stop.

Obviously it's lovely reading stories like fish returning to the canals of Venice now the boats have stopped churning up the water, but any attempt to link this to some conspiratorial climate change experiment is again misdirected, if anything because the onus on turning that tide is on big business, the military and infrastructure. No amount of reused bags or electric cars is going to outdo the mammoth daily output of fossil fuel power production. No one is going to jack in their car until there's a convenient, high-speed and cheap clean alternative.

Even more cynically, coronavirus' mortality rate is still well below other rarer diseases and conditions, so there are surely more efficient diseases they could have engineered and circulated if culling swathes of the global population was the goal. But that's me going full-on devil's advocate and hating myself for it.

[Mr_Danger]

I heard a lad refer to it as the Cor-OWNER- Virus and state that all those with money were making a mint off it. He had the raspy voice of Bob Einstein too which added to the effect. 

[SuperBacon]

Just seen something really lovely out the window. A lad who can't have been more than 13/14 saw an old boy walking his dog, and waited in the space/stairway between two shops (I live across from a parade), to allow him to pass so he wasn't too close to him. Choked me up a bit.

[Kaz Hayashi]

This is usually one of the busiest junctions in Newcastle city centre st 5.00pm on a weekday. Bang in the middle of the city library, Uni, art gallery and main shopping streets.

Incredibly eerie but highly pleasing to see it almost completely deserted. Well done you daft geordies.

[KingofSports]

Just heard a random burst of applause @ 8:00. Is that a thing now?

[DEF]

3 minutes ago, KingofSports said:

Just heard a random burst of applause @ 8:00. Is that a thing now?

Yeah they idea is we are clapping the NHS staff as a nation.

[wordsfromlee]

The thing I'm dreading the most about this whole situation is the town centres the day we're told the lockdown is over, businesses are allowed to reopen and we can all go back to work. It's going to be absolute carnage. It'll be like Mad Friday times a million. 

[ElCece]

3 minutes ago, wordsfromlee said:

The thing I'm dreading the most about this whole situation is the town centres the day we're told the lockdown is over, businesses are allowed to reopen and we can all go back to work. It's going to be absolute carnage. It'll be like Mad Friday times a million. 

Honestly mate the joy at things beginning to return to normal is going to be followed with a flood of relief and ecstasy without trying to exaggerate.  I cant wait.