Covid-19 Megathread

[Chris B]

8 hours ago, Hannibal Scorch said:

As hilarious as this all is, I really would like some reassurance in how to deal with a wife who is panicking that she cannot work and is self employed so no idea when she has any money coming in (hopefully resolved tomorrow).  is having to look after 2 kids full time because my son was turned away from his school, even with EHC because of my wife having to give up work due to the lockdown, and worried if she gets it she will die. Just something to give me a glimmer of hope to stop her wanting to cry every few minutes.

 

If her main fear is about what happens to her if she gets it, it might be worth talking about the individual rather than the large-scale.

On an individual basis, your odds are great. You'd have to be a bit unlucky to get it. You'd have to be more unlucky to show symptoms. You'd have to be even more unlucky for the symptoms to be bad. You'd have to be really unlucky for the symptoms to be really bad. And you'd have to be incredibly unlucky to be life-or-death.

On an individual basis, her chances of being on the better side of all of those is pretty damn good. And the more careful she is, you are, and those around you are, the better the chances are.

What we're bad at is scaling up and keeping proportionality. It's difficult to think about, say, just how busy the London Underground is at any point in time. We can see that our carriage is busy and we can easily understand how busy the train is. We might be able to scale up to a train on each line being similar. But when we start to take into account all the trains on each line, it gets really complicated. Then all the people getting on and getting off... these are numbers we're not used to comprehending. And it's the same with this virus - it's difficult to make sense of on a personal basis. And because we have such huge networks, it feels very close when a friend of a friend, or someone close to someone you know a bit, gets it - whereas it's more down to just how many people you know.

The Excel centre etc is being used because the numbers are enormous - but that's separate to your personal odds.

Not sure if any of that will be reassuring, but it might be useful in terms of keeping some proportionality and avoiding catastrophising on a personal level.

 

EDIT - this doesn't mean be complacent. It's exactly because your network is so huge that you have to be careful - the odds of you infecting people are high if you have it, and the odds of that leading to someone getting it badly are even higher. And you don't know if you have it.

Edited March 26, 2020 by Chris B

[CavemanLynn]

7 minutes ago, Chris B said:

 

The Excel centre etc is being used because the numbers are enormous - but that's separate to your personal odds.

Not sure if any of that will be reassuring, but it might be useful in terms of keeping some proportionality and avoiding catastrophising on a personal level.

EDIT - this doesn't mean be complacent. It's exactly because your network is so huge that you have to be careful - the odds of you infecting people are high if you have it, and the odds of that leading to someone getting it badly are even higher. And you don't know if you have it.

These points are the ones that I think are most important, and easy to miss if you start feeling overwhelmed. I'd recommend a mental practice called fear-setting, where you write down the worst case scenarios, and then write next to each one what you can do to mitigate or avoid them. For a start, writing things down helps arrange your thoughts so you don't end up spiralling from one into the next. Secondly, it puts things into perspective for YOU in the situation. And thirdly, it breaks things down into manageable tasks or situations, which can make it much easier to understand. It's something I do fairly regularly anyway (once every few months, or if I start thinking about a big lifestyle change like a new job). I cover everything from running out of porridge oats to losing the house. It helps me, because I then know that, whatever happens, I'm ready to make the changes and take the actions to ensure my family's safety and wellbeing.

[Divorced Dad]

This has hit home for me this morning. The grandpa of one of the children in my class died of Covid-19 today. 

[Hannibal Scorch]

Thanks @Chris B for another excellent and informative post. It's helped me if nothing else. Wife seems a bit better today. I think she got more sleep then she had been and a chance to switch off for a bit, but I will discuss your post with her later.

[thevestofdeanambrose]

Anyone else realised just how many mailing lists they are actually on from all these Covid emails. 

[WyattSheepMask]

1 hour ago, Hannibal Scorch said:

I honestly think the way we work is going to shift when this is all said and done. A lot of businesses who refuse to let people work from home are now finding that they have had to, and it's been more positive then negative. I can see home working becoming a lot more of a common thing when this is all said and done.

And from a hygene point of view, I hope we continue being conscious of washing our hands more often.

While I want to agree with you, I can’t help but feel like once things get relaxed (whenever that may be), the wider population will just go back to how we were before things escalated. We’ve seen plenty of people who either just don’t get the seriousness of it all or just blatantly flout what they’re being told to do

[Keith Houchen]

1 hour ago, Lord-Mountevans said:

Amazingly sunbathing is one part of the health guidelines to beat the virus!

If only the "hilarious" dude on here who pretended he had some friends around for a barbecue, had bragged about getting the sun beds out. He could have got a rise out of us and been factually correct (well not about having any friends 😂).

It's not as cut and dried as that, unfortunately.  https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200323-coronavirus-will-hot-weather-kill-covid-19

[Jazzy G]

I think here in Manchester  they're doing something similar with the GMex/Manchester Central?

[Factotum]

Quote

While I want to agree with you, I can’t help but feel like once things get relaxed (whenever that may be), the wider population will just go back to how we were before things escalated. We’ve seen plenty of people who either just don’t get the seriousness of it all or just blatantly flout what they’re being told to do

I think we're at least 3 months away from relaxing it. I actually think there will be harsher measures before relaxing even happens. It will become a lot more normal, so the stockpilers and panic shoppers will not be as prevalent as it will settle down into the everyday run of things. People were shitting it as they didn't know what was going to happen. We know now.

Also in the next 3 weeks we are going to see huge numbers. The Government will no doubt step up the messaging all over the place

My work has e-mailed to tell me that holiday and sick days do not have to be reported now. Just simply inform your manager if you will not be at your desk WFH.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, John Matrix said:

An eerily timed post. Last night I watched this show for the first time in 30 years and was wondering whether there'd be enough material for a reboot series...

[Loki]

51 minutes ago, thevestofdeanambrose said:

Anyone else realised just how many mailing lists they are actually on from all these Covid emails. 

Yeah.  I mean, during this time of national crisis, do I really need an update about how my Porsche dealership is coping?

@Keith Houchen

[Onyx2]

I've been looking at UK versus Italy as we have similar population sizes, and WHO think UK is around 14 days behind Italy. There are differences in terms of how Italy is lots of separate regions connected by large cities, and like the US they have an element of devolved legislature. This means regions shut down gradually rather than in a blanket way as they (finally) did here. I've not shared this elsewhere but here's cases and deaths in the two countries, with the UK staggered forward two weeks (so 1st March in Italy is 15th March in the UK).

I've put it in spoiler tags because not everyone wants to face the numbers.

It shows the Italian death rate is continuing to rise while the UK day on day isn't yet having the steep climb. Cases are rising at similar rates but mortality isn't. Schools were closed over a number of days in Italy rather than one deadline in the UK, additionally just being further along in the crisis likely means we are able to diagnose and give mitigating advice.

Source: wikipedia

Edited March 26, 2020 by Onyx2

[Hannibal Scorch]

Great stat work @Onyx2, and obviously who doesn't appreciate a good graph. I didn't realize they left it so late to close schools there. I spoke to a work colleague in Milan yesterday. He was called a bastard by a local because he went out for a run at the weekend in his local forest, so he's not been out since. Seems like people are taking it more seriously, even though I don't think him going for a run was an issue.

[SuperBacon]

8 minutes ago, Hannibal Scorch said:

Great stat work @Onyx2, and obviously who doesn't appreciate a good graph. I didn't realize they left it so late to close schools there. I spoke to a work colleague in Milan yesterday. He was called a bastard by a local because he went out for a run at the weekend in his local forest, so he's not been out since. Seems like people are taking it more seriously, even though I don't think him going for a run was an issue.

If he's anything like how my brother in Naples speaks to everyone, he could've just been saying hello.

[Mr_Danger]

There's hope! The dick head who asked me for a lighter the other day ran out of his house and told his kid to get in because "he's playing out too much". He then coughed, uncovered, in to the open air but it's still progress.