Covid-19 Megathread

[Keith Houchen]

21 minutes ago, Chest Rockwell said:

But what are the hospitalisation rates like? Important information if the relevant metric is no longer case numbers.

Isn’t there something about the more cases and the faster the spread, the more chance of mutations and new variants?

[BomberPat]

5 minutes ago, Chest Rockwell said:

But what are the hospitalisation rates like? Important information if the relevant metric is no longer case numbers.

Hospitalisation rate is very low - in fact, it has been in Jersey pretty much across the board, with the exception of over Christmas. Most recent update is actually only 5 people in hospital, while of those not in hospital, 1062 are symptomatic, 531 asymptomatic.

So if they had stuck to "case numbers aren't the relevant metric" - which will be an increasingly common argument across the board - the latest delay would seem a bit pointless. But they've seen the rising numbers and panicked, and gone back on that way of thinking at the first hurdle. I think it's going to take a long time for anyone to actually adjust their way of thinking accordingly. 

What's forcing their hands a lot is the number of direct contacts, and the failings of track and trace. Without the NHS app, they've basically got a team of people working overtime literally phoning people and knocking on doors, and relying on a lot of self-reporting by text, phone or email. It's worked surprisingly well up until the last few weeks, when the IT infrastructure has just been fucked - people isolating are asked to take a test after X number of days, and the automated texts inviting people to those tests just weren't happening. The number of direct contacts has been fucking up schools and businesses, by forcing people to isolate even if they don't have symptoms, and it's got to a point where the economic damage probably outweighs the risk of the virus to the general public - but at the same time, the public will always fall back on "we're an island, we should have just shut the borders and not let this happen" which is what Guernsey did pretty effectively, and a similar complaint to the UK not shutting the borders when they could have done. 

Generally, as we reach the (hopefully) tail end of the pandemic, I am a little bit more on the side of making economic decisions, as vaccination and learned immunity should mean that there's a ceiling on how far infection can spread now - but seeing numbers go up with no real sign of showing down does make me think that, really, is there any harm in delaying just a little more? If it's a question of "delay until more people are vaccinated", it's still a pretty arbitrary distinction, because my second jab is still a couple of weeks ago, which means there are still plenty of people out there with only one jab. Funnily enough, I'd have probably been more in favour of opening up on the 23rd than now - things seems to have declined since then, but the government aren't prepared to make the same decision they did then. 

[Chest Rockwell]

10 minutes ago, Keith Houchen said:

Isn’t there something about the more cases and the faster the spread, the more chance of mutations and new variants?

Yeah I don't know enough about the science to understand what the relevant metric should be tbh. I was asking as this is the logic that's guiding the UK's approach, rightly or wrongly.

[Keith Houchen]

7 minutes ago, Chest Rockwell said:

Yeah I don't know enough about the science to understand what the relevant metric should be tbh. I was asking as this is the logic that's guiding the UK's approach, rightly or wrongly.

Yeah, I was of the understanding that the number of cases isn’t the most important metric once the populace has been vaccinated. Most of the pushback seems to be that we should wait a few weeks so more people are vaccinated. According to “Sources”…

 

[garynysmon]

As I understand it, Wales is ahead of the other UK nations in vaccinations. Yet I'm 37 and not due to have my second jab until the end of the month.

If that's the case then surely there are hoardes of people in their 30s and 40s not fully vaccinated in England at this juncture? The idea of lifting all restrictions at this point would scare me a little. Surely another month or so would make a world of difference?

Edited July 14, 2021 by garynysmon

[stumobir]

1 hour ago, garynysmon said:

As I understand it, Wales is ahead of the other UK nations in vaccinations. Yet I'm 37 and not due to have my second jab until the end of the month.

If that's the case then surely there are hoardes of people in their 30s and 40s not fully vaccinated in England at this juncture? The idea of lifting all restrictions at this point would scare me a little. Surely another month or so would make a world of difference?

You can probably bring your second vaccine forward. Initially, everyone was given 11 weeks between vaccines (I think) but since they’ve increased capacity you’ve been able to bring it forward by a few weeks. I wasn’t due my second until mid-August but have managed to get in before the end of July. Really easy to do if you just google “manage vaccine booking”, all you need is your name, DOB and postcode.

[HarmonicGenerator]

3 hours ago, BomberPat said:

 I'm dreading the inevitable stories of anti-mask pricks abusing people on public transport for still wearing masks, and I feel for the customer service and hospitality staff that are largely in demographics least likely to have had their second jab yet have no choice but to be surrounded by people who think it's all over, and with mask-wearing no longer being legally required, won't even have government support should they prefer their patrons be masked or take basic precautions. Bar staff and supermarket employees aren't paid enough to put up with the arguments and abuse that will ensue from that. It's basically outsourcing public health measures to the general public. 

This. I work in a tourist attraction and it's going to be hell for every one of us faced with the public every day.

 

3 minutes ago, stumobir said:

You can probably bring your second vaccine forward. Initially, everyone was given 11 weeks between vaccines (I think) but since they’ve increased capacity you’ve been able to bring it forward by a few weeks. I wasn’t due my second until mid-August but have managed to get in before the end of July. Really easy to do if you just google “manage vaccine booking”, all you need is your name, DOB and postcode.

My wife got her first jab in Edinburgh a week or two ago, she got told she couldn't book a second, but just to walk-in eight weeks later. Did you manage to book your second?

[Ted]

1 hour ago, garynysmon said:

As I understand it, Wales is ahead of the other UK nations in vaccinations. Yet I'm 37 and not due to have my second jab until the end of the month.

If that's the case then surely there are hoardes of people in their 30s and 40s not fully vaccinated in England at this juncture? The idea of lifting all restrictions at this point would scare me a little. Surely another month or so would make a world of difference?

Wales focussed on getting everyone their first vaccine whereas England started prioritising the 2nd dose so a lot of people in England have now had both doses.  The younger age brackets were delayed a bit in getting the first vaccine while they focussed on the 2nd round but they’ve been able to get the 1st one for a few weeks now so a lot of the youngsters will be waiting for their 2nd now.

[PunkStep]

4 hours ago, garynysmon said:

 

If that's the case then surely there are hoardes of people in their 30s and 40s not fully vaccinated in England at this juncture?

86% of adults in England have had their first jab, 65% have had their 2nd. Wales' vaccination rates are even higher.

Edited July 14, 2021 by PunkStep

[garynysmon]

65% isn't anywhere near herd immunity is it?...

[Vamp]

Personally I'm waiting for the day the PM decides to cut the legal restrictions against kicking him in the knackers and announces that its up to people's personal responsibility as to whether or not they want to give his bollocks a good punting. 

 

[SaitoRyo]

Got my second dose of The Fizz yesterday and feel like one giant ache today. 

Was a rough night, with my wife feeling the same (actually a bit worse as she ran hot and cold too), but we're both glad to be fully vaccinated now. That, coupled with my folks coming to visit in less than two weeks, has made the summer look a lot more positive. 

[David]

On 7/13/2021 at 1:44 PM, Chest Rockwell said:

 

 

Wow, okay. You're kind of grasping at straws there chief, that post was made in March of 2020! How many people actually knew what was going on then? Come on now 😉

[Chest Rockwell]

Your post was 5 days before the first lockdown was announced officially and had been the subject of much discussion already.  I assume you must have got fully onboard 4 and a half days later, so your earlier statement was definitely accurate and not just you concern trolling and being contrary.

[David]

1 hour ago, Chest Rockwell said:

Your post was 5 days before the first lockdown was announced officially and had been the subject of much discussion already.  I assume you must have got fully onboard 4 and a half days later, so your earlier statement was definitely accurate and not just you concern trolling and being contrary.

No, I got fully onboard when I found out more about the virus itself and saw the numbers in the weeks and months that followed. Like most people, I didn't quite know the full extent of what was coming.

But hey, if that's a "gotcha!" for you then batter in. I'll happily hold my hands up.