Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Gus Mears

General Erection 2019

Who are you voting for?  

213 members have voted

You do not have permission to vote in this poll, or see the poll results. Please sign in or register to vote in this poll.

Recommended Posts

23 minutes ago, HarmonicGenerator said:

The Swedish People’s Party Of Finland?

Ooh, just looked that one up. Turns out it's basically a single issue party that's about the Swedish language rather than the country as such. They usually get about five percent of the vote and then join whatever the governing coalition is, which is simple to sort out as their only demand is "let's keep Swedish an official language."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Keith Houchen said:

 It makes me wonder if Brexit is such a massive priority as is made out. 
 

Anecdotally, it doesn't seem to be. Everyone I know that's campaigning/doorstepping for Labour has said that the only people bringing it up are the frothing-at-the-mouth diehard "leave means leave" Brexiters.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, BomberPat said:

Anecdotally, it doesn't seem to be. Everyone I know that's campaigning/doorstepping for Labour has said that the only people bringing it up are the frothing-at-the-mouth diehard "leave means leave" Brexiters.

Terrifying for Labour's prospects if that's the case. Getting bummed in a one issue election in which one is fussed about the one issue would be peak Corbyn.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, Keith Houchen said:

I know their number isn’t huge but there were people who voted leave not to stick it to Brussels but to stick it to Cameron.  And the Brexit party have all but evaporated with their predicted zero seats (by some commentators). It makes me wonder if Brexit is such a massive priority as is made out. 
 

I’m probably clutching at straws because like Soapdish my mental health has nosedived recently and I’m shitting it at the prospect of a Johnson led Tory majority. 

That is one of the reasons to grasp at straws when trying to explain how the massive Tory poll leads might not mean a landslide. This chart is the from the oddly named Tortoise site. The colours are the current holders. The further left, the bigger the Conservative majority, so a small swing to them would mean they pick up the seats just to the right of the central line. The horizontal line is 50-50 in the EU referendum and the further up, the more Leavey the constituency.

At the moment the majority of seats projected to change hands are in a cone shape in the top right corner, with the logical explanation that it's the Conservatives picking up votes in Labour-held Leave constituencies.

One thing that stands out to me is that there's a big lump of Conservative held seats that have a narrow majority and are in seats that voted Leave but not heavily. If you assume the swing is the same in every seat, that's irrelevant. However, if it varies, it could be that some of those seats decide that Get Brexit Done isn't as big a factor as "save the NHS/Johnson's a bellend/nine years of Tories is enough."

To give an idea how varied the picture is, one place I've seen doing individual seat projections currently has the Tories as basically a 50-50 chance to pick up their 44th biggest target seat (ranked by current majority) but about the same chance of losing the 55th most vulnerable seat they are defending.

 

ELSwu5yXkAM5NdV.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, BomberPat said:

Anecdotally, it doesn't seem to be. Everyone I know that's campaigning/doorstepping for Labour has said that the only people bringing it up are the frothing-at-the-mouth diehard "leave means leave" Brexiters.

Similar experiences with people I know or work with. Only people that still talk about Brexit are those that were already obsessed with the EU/immigration.

None are indicating that they will vote Tory with some indicating that they won't vote at all. The one ones that would probably be considered "traditional" Labour abandoned the party long before Corbyn's leadership and have long been lost to the cult of Farage.

They are also the ones that currently show no interest in voting.

One of the few LibDem I know starts every political conversation with "I'd never vote Tory" which I always consider a red flag. He's also very reluctant to criticize the Tories outside of Johnson himself.

For balance there isn't much love for Corbyn in my social circle. Though some have moved from "he's an idiot" to "he has some good ideas but some bad ones" which is somewhat positive and almost identical to what I came across in 2017.

Of course I live in a relatively safe Labour seat which obviously is unlikely to reflect national vote intentions.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Johnson now coming out with scrapping the license fee despite not being able to touch it until 2027 is just the sort of shitty tactic to take away from him looking like a bellend taking that reporters phone away. You just know whats making the headline news.

I feel a sense of dread about this on Thursday. I just know he's going to walk in with a majority.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The ovation he gets at the end is like Hogan/Rock levels of noise. Just listen to it. Sorry to link to my own tweet, but I’ve uploaded the clip myself so couldn’t find it elsewhere

 

Edited by Hannibal Scorch

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, The King Of Swing said:

Link not working for me.

I’ve changed it

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...