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Gus Mears

General Erection 2019

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Tempting fate in the current climate, but Labour are on board (dependent somewhat on the date), so it's probably happening. 

For those who have enjoyed it in the past (basically @HarmonicGenerator), I'll be loading up on caffeine and having a fun old 24 hour polling day, likely running data in a committee room before attempting to not fall asleep at the count. 

Excited for a month of the high-quality political debate, both in this thread and the wider nation.

EDIT: Now with a poll because I love Keith. Sorry if you're from Northern Ireland (blame Moo). 

Edited by Gus Mears

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10 minutes ago, Gus Mears said:

Tempting fate in the current climate, but Labour are on board (dependent somewhat on the date), so it's probably happening. 

For those who have enjoyed it in the past (basically @HarmonicGenerator), I'll be loading up on caffeine and having a fun old 24 hour polling day, likely running data in a committee room before attempting to not fall asleep at the count. 

Excited for a month of the high-quality political debate, both in this thread and the wider nation.

 

 

I enjoy your reporting, for sure. It helps me feel like I have some idea of what's going on! But I must make it clear I do not enjoy general elections. 'Dread' is closer to it... I've moved constituency since the last one, though, so will have to do my research more thoroughly this time.

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 I love an election, the BBC updates, whatever channel 4 do, the Gusdates (see what i did there?? Gus Updates - Gusdates! I've been waiting since the last election to use it) the whole thing. However with all this talk of it potentially being on the 9th or 10th my mind has been trying to think of the last time an election was held on a day other than a Thursday. it'll be weird voting on a different day of the week. I could Ask Jeeves for the answer but I think the UKFFs resident Election guru would be a more reliable source - @Gus Mears surely knows!

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I'm pretty sick of the ballot box tp be honest. I can see a shocxking turnout and a tory romp home.

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Last non-Thursday was 1931.

Shit procedural trivia of the day: assuming we have the December election, the Fixed Term Parliament Act automatically sets the next election as May 2024. So this will guarantee three straight parliaments running less than the "fixed" five year terms.

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5 minutes ago, PowerButchi said:

I'm pretty sick of the ballot box tp be honest. I can see a shocxking turnout and a tory romp home.

This is what I'm expecting.

Labour really needs to mobilise the youth vote to have any chance of winning this, and I don't think the degree of youth interest in Corbyn last time around is something that can see lightning strike twice. Low turn-outs and a Tory win seem almost inevitable, short of significant scandal (does scandal even still matter?), major Brexit developments, or a very interesting election.

Edited by BomberPat

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oh God, just realised we have Poppy Fascism season to get through before then anyway, so that'll be a perfect opportunity to rile up some "unpatriotic" slurs against Corbyn et al.

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As for the result, I'm very torn between on the one hand seeing it very plausible the Tories get most votes by a considerable distance, but struggling to see which 320 seats they win to form a majority. I've posted something along these lines before, but I can very plausible see:

* They have a dozen seats in Scotland and will do well to hold on to a couple.

* There's 22 seats that the Tories won from the Lib Dems in 2015 and held on to in 2017. There's a strong shot they lose most of those this time.

* There's a couple of dozen seats where a Tory was elected in 2017 and has since lost the whip/defected. Most of these will retire or be defeated, but I could see half a dozen of them either retaining their seats or splitting the right-wing vote and letting another party win.

* There's possibly a half-dozen Conservative seats Labour just missed on last time where Johnson and his policies are enough to tip the balance.

 

So between that and it no longer being a guarantee the DUP will help make up the numbers, the Conservatives could very easily need 40 gains from Labour to get a majority. Go through the list of marginals, chuck out half a dozen where Brexit being an issue will probably make them impossible gains, and you're well into the field of Midlands/Northern/Welsh towns that have literally always been Labour.

It's not impossible by any means, but it's a big ask. The real questions are:

* Does Labour make up ground and be the clear #2 in the polls?

* Are "Remain" voters willing to vote tactically?

* How big is the Brexit vote and where does it have an effect?

* Does the genuine prospect of Corbyn being PM change the debate/people's views?

Edited by JNLister

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While I think turnout will be down on 2017, I reckon it'll hold up surprisingly well. Partly, this is because I'm just sparing my own blushes after boldly predicting it would be shit in 2017 and being resoundingly wrong but also, people will vote if they really want to and there is a fuck-tonne riding on this election, both through the prism of Brexit and other major issues. 

I'm certainly not convinced that it being cold will matter. February '74 had nigh on 80% turnout and it wasn't exactly balmy out. One of the things I am most interested in is general Tory voting fatigue in a fourth general election since they have been in power. Irrespective of anything else that's happened, or the merits of the party's, four in a row as largest party is tough, doubly so if you're looking for an absolute majority. As Lister says, it's not entirely clear where those seats come from.

Edited by Gus Mears

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5 minutes ago, BomberPat said:

oh God, just realised we have Poppy Fascism season to get through before then anyway

 

How can you be against Poppy Season when it gives you a gem (a blinder, if you will) like this to buy

6APV85C.jpg

Edited by WyattSheepMask

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20 minutes ago, WyattSheepMask said:

 

How can you be against Poppy Season when it gives you a gem (a blinder, if you will) like this to buy

6APV85C.jpg

When I saw that I pointed out that the Peaky Blinders support the RA, are commie sympathisers and are at war with fascists. 

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