Paid Members Hannibal Scorch Posted October 17, 2019 Paid Members Share Posted October 17, 2019 Yeah I just watched him be interviewed. He says there will be no need for an extension because there is a deal, but it seems clear if it doesn't pass and the EU27 accept, there could be an extension. He is taking purely based on a deal being agreed by the PM and the EU and knows it still has to be passed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Factotum Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Quote he ERG and the DUP will be happy I'm going to assume this is utter sarcasm? These two groups probably frown during sex. Quote Well, Juncker has ruled out an extension so looks like it’s no deal or shit deal. Juncker is saying that now, of course he is. Doesn't mean shit. The EU leaders will decide that, not him. Tusk also hasn't said that. If its voted down on Saturday it is a completely different ballgame. He's being bullish as they want this through. Anyway, taken from Twitter, here's a breakdown of three likely situations on Saturday: DUP rebel but ERG + Lab MPs who backed May + indy Cons support: Johnson loses -5 DUP+ERG reject but Lab MPs who backed May+indy Cons: Johnson loses -55 DUP rebel, ERG support+Leave Lab MPs+Lab MPs 4 deal + indy Cons = Johnson wins +29 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loki Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 That third option is the likeliest at the moment. I think the threat of No Deal is going to scare enough MPs into this deal, even though it's worse than May's. What grinds my gears is that the Tories have sacrificed some of their precious red lines, just to get Johnson into power. That's the only benefit since May put her deal before them. The twist on Saturday may be that Parliament votes to have a referendum on this deal, but then we have to decide what the options on that vote will be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loki Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 Another humiliating day for the Prime Minister, another stinging Commons defeat, and to cap it all he stood up in Parliament and said he wouldn't negotiate an extension with the EU, and then promptly did, as he was required to do by law. It's genuinely embarrassing to have a PM who thinks it's somehow winning a moral victory to send a photocopy and not sign it. He probably rubbed bogies on it as well, the child. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members stumobir Posted October 20, 2019 Paid Members Share Posted October 20, 2019 Read a quote yesterday that sums it up pretty well “The DUP mistook the ERG for Unionists and the ERG mistook the DUP for Brexiteers, now the wheels have come off” I still think Johnson will get his deal through by promising everything to everyone, seemingly MPs still can’t see through this trick. If May had proposed the exact same deal it would be roundly defeated, voting down her deals was never about the content but rather a mechanism for the extreme right-wing of the Tories to “take back control” of their party. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Dammer Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 10 hours ago, Loki said: Another humiliating day for the Prime Minister, another stinging Commons defeat, and to cap it all he stood up in Parliament and said he wouldn't negotiate an extension with the EU, and then promptly did, as he was required to do by law. It's genuinely embarrassing to have a PM who thinks it's somehow winning a moral victory to send a photocopy and not sign it. He probably rubbed bogies on it as well, the child. Well, he said he wouldn't negotiate an extension, not that he wouldn't request one as he is legally required to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members Chunk Posted October 22, 2019 Paid Members Share Posted October 22, 2019 What just happened? Is the passing of the Brexit bill this evening equivalent to the deal getting a majority? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members JNLister Posted October 22, 2019 Paid Members Share Posted October 22, 2019 The vote Johnson won was for the Second Reading of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill, which is what approves the EU deal and puts it into British law. Second Reading is where you vote to approve the general principles and move on to more debate. It's not a vote to make it law. Instead you go on to committee stage where MPs can propose and vote on amendments to it. You then have a final vote on the bill (including any amendments) called Third Reading. It then goes through the same process in the Lords and if it gets the thumbs up there it becomes law. The "majority" is that 329 MPs have voted for the general principle of accepting the deal. Given those who voted against today are almost certainly not going to approve the final bill, Johnson needs to get through the amendment process to the final bill without losing the support of 15 or more MPs. That's possible but very tricky given different groups have very different ideas about what amendments they'd like to see and what other people's amendments they'd accept. That's all on hold anyway thanks to losing the second vote, which was on the proposed timetable of getting to Third Reading in the Commons by the end of Thursday, which was objectively a ludicrous proposition. In theory Johnson now has to come back with a new proposed timetable that allows longer for debate. In practice the EU is going to grant the extension and he's not going to get the bill passed by October 31st, so he's almost certainly going to try again for a general election and campaign on needing a strong majority to pass the deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members JNLister Posted October 22, 2019 Paid Members Share Posted October 22, 2019 tl;dr: This is a total fucking lie: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loki Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 I think this whole short timetable was a trap myself. They must have known it wouldn't pass, which begs the question - why did they do it? As Lister says, I think this is yet another attempt to force a General Election. Boris can say that the deal has "passed" (it has certainly got further than May's deal ever did) but that Parliament (the new right-wing boogeyman, depressingly enough) blocked it. Looking at the polls, a small but workable Tory majority looks possible. Labour have entirely shit the bed this year with the electorate. A weak minority government, threatened from their own right wing by an insurgent populist party - Labour should be 10 points clear in the polls. But the shilly shallying over Brexit has meant they've bled both Brexiters and Remainers. I have no particular issue with Corbyn, but as a leader of a national party he's just no good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Chest Rockwell Posted October 23, 2019 Moderators Share Posted October 23, 2019 I'm with you on Corbyn. I can't imagine how the hardcore like @hallicks can explain this away with 'media bias'. A strong and consistent message is what is needed to cut through and they haven't had one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members tiger_rick Posted October 23, 2019 Paid Members Share Posted October 23, 2019 I like and respect Corbyn but he's never been the guy and still isn't. The fact that this absolute shit show has exposed Cameron, Farage, May, Johnson and others and yet masses of the voting public detest Corbyn above most speaks volumes. I see lots of criticism of him on Facebook and I live in a staunch Labour area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members Carbomb Posted October 23, 2019 Paid Members Share Posted October 23, 2019 7 minutes ago, Chest Rockwell said: I'm with you on Corbyn. I can't imagine how the hardcore like @hallicks can explain this away with 'media bias'. A strong and consistent message is what is needed to cut through and they haven't had one. I think it's both. We only have to look at what happened with Ed Miliband to see the media's biases at play, and he was seen as much less radical. It was practically bullying, and the only reason they didn't go on a trumped-up anti-Semitism tip against him was because he's actually Jewish. Corbyn's been under even worse assault. The AS outrage has been a mix of legitimate and bogus; he's done the old urban Left thing of being too soft on it because of his position on Israel/Palestine/America, but he's not actually racist against Jews himself. It doesn't matter, though, because he's left himself extremely vulnerable to those accusations, in addition to the whole "IRA sympathiser" bollocks. However, it is also true he's just not up to the task of being Labour leader - at least, not as a leader of a party that can get into government. I've said it before that I think he's already accomplished the biggest thing he'll ever do, regardless of whether or not he becomes PM, which is to boot the door back open on left-wing politics in the mainstream. He's not all that left-wing, very few of the Labour Party are, but he's managed to shove the Overton Window further back leftwards than many of us thought it would ever be again after Blair. He did a great job of making a case for socialist policies in the run-up to his leadership election, and got a lot of young people, as well as people who'd been apolitical for ages, talking about them - and once you get enough people talking, it's near-impossible to stop those ideas gaining critical mass and influence in the general populace. He should step down for someone like Long-Bailey, Lewis, Rayner, or even Starmer. Someone from the new Labour left who doesn't have the stink on them that the right-wing tabloids can rage-vomit about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members Hannibal Scorch Posted October 23, 2019 Paid Members Share Posted October 23, 2019 7 minutes ago, tiger_rick said: I like and respect Corbyn but he's never been the guy and still isn't. The fact that this absolute shit show has exposed Cameron, Farage, May, Johnson and others and yet masses of the voting public detest Corbyn above most speaks volumes. I see lots of criticism of him on Facebook and I live in a staunch Labour area. I feel the same as you. Unfortunately because of all the media bile the only way I can see Johnson outed in a GE is if he steps down. There is no way he is going to win which is a massive shame Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members Dead Mike Posted October 23, 2019 Paid Members Share Posted October 23, 2019 30 minutes ago, Chest Rockwell said: I'm with you on Corbyn. I can't imagine how the hardcore like @hallicks can explain this away with 'media bias'. A strong and consistent message is what is needed to cut through and they haven't had one. The hardcore/Momentum faction in the Labour party would rather be in permanent opposition & live under the Tories for another 5yrs than admit Corbyn is unelectable. It's the epitome of 'being in a bubble'. The only thing the Tories have going for them heading into a GE is that the vast majority of the electorate despise Corbyn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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