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Devon Malcolm

Brexit

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36 minutes ago, Dead Mike said:

At what point does continuing to support him as leader become akin to enablng the Government?

"Support Corbyn and you're a Tory". Sure, why not.

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1 hour ago, Dead Mike said:

Anyone who stilll supports him as leader.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/jeremy-corbyn/news/106687/jeremy-corbyn-most-unpopular

The most unpopular oppostion leader of the past 45 years. Approval ratings still worse than Johnson & worse than May when she was in her final days. Anyone who seriously cares about getting rid of the Tories & isn't a fantasist must recognise that people fucking hate him? At what point does continuing to support him as leader become akin to enablng the Government?

You think he's electable but this is based on nothing other than wishful thinking. There's literally nothing that suggests he could beat Johnson in a GE right now. The Labour bounce in the last GE came from people still thinking Labour were anti-Brexit (which they've since fucked) & the fact that the Tories announced the 'dementia tax' & fox hunting in their manifesto. The Corbyn 'youthquake' never happened (https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/there-was-no-youthquake-so-why-did-labour-do-unexpectedly-well-at-the-election) despite people claiming he''d got young Brits interested in politics again. Turned out they just liked chanting his name.

FWIW I like Corbyn, I paid my £3 & voted for him as leader as it seemed like the right direction to go in. He's done his job & needs to have the self awareness to step aside if Labour are serious about winning an election. He won't though because he's still buzzing from losing the last one.

Are people still paying attention to polls? The same polls that got the 2015, 2017 and EU referendum results wrong? Polls are used to influence not indicate public opinion. There are some pollsters whose primary method of data collection is still landline telephone. 

If it was a two horse race then Johnson would undoubtedly wipe the floor with Corbyn in an election, again it's my belief that that's primarily because of media bias but I'll leave that for now. Thankfully, this time there are a few more mules in the running that have the potential to split the vote. Farage isn't going to sit this election out, he and his backers want a no-deal Brexit at all costs, that could split the Conservative vote in your midland and northern, leave-voting, constituencies. Then you've got the home counties and the south west, where Lib Dems are predicted to make the most gains, again mainly Tory seats that are at risk in these areas. Although in fairness, I can't see the Lib Dem bounce being anywhere near what is predicted, they're a party off no-marks and careerists led by a vacuous bint who showed her true colours in refusing to support a Corbyn-led interim Government. Even during the Lib Dem's heyday "I agree with Nick" era, the Lib Dems didn't pick up a fraction of the seats the polls predicted they would. 

Edited to add: There are also 10/11 Tory seats in Scotland that I'll eat my hat if they return Tory again.

You suggest that Labour picked up the anti-Brexit vote in 2015 but there are others who reckon they done well because UKIPers returned their vote, I'm not sure which I believe tbh, all I know is that he done considerably better than the polls or the media were predicting and the country was in much less of a mess back then. Labour won't win a majority, of that I've got no doubt and am actually pretty glad of because I believe parties should co-operate and regularly work  in coalition, a Labour minority government propped up with the SNP in a confidence/supply arrangement is what I think and hope might happen.

Edited by stumobir

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30 minutes ago, Devon Malcolm said:

"Support Corbyn and you're a Tory". Sure, why not.

Not what I said but you can pretend it is if it makes it easier for you. Supporting Corbyn despite the electorate largely hating him doesn't make anyone a Tory, just naive/deluded....take your pick.

Corbyn is toxic to the majority of voters & is the primary reason why Labour are consistently polling behind arguably the worst Tory government we've seen. Media bias undoubtably plays a large part but that's the reality of the situation. Keeping him as Labour leader helps the Tories, provably so.

If you think I'm wrong I'm genuinely interested as to why?

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6 minutes ago, Dead Mike said:

Not what I said but you can pretend it is if it makes it easier for you. Supporting Corbyn despite the electorate largely hating him doesn't make anyone a Tory, just naive/deluded....take your pick.

Corbyn is toxic to the majority of voters & is the primary reason why Labour are consistently polling behind arguably the worst Tory government we've seen. Media bias undoubtably plays a large part but that's the reality of the situation. Keeping him as Labour leader helps the Tories, provably so.

If you think I'm wrong I'm genuinely interested as to why?

I genuinely don't believe it's that big a leap between what you're suggesting and my response. You're saying to me, as a Corbynista or Cult of Corbyn member or football chanter or however you want to frame me, by continuing to back the only political leader in my entire lifetime who has actually made me want to get off my arse and vote for the party they represent, that I'm propping up the Tories.

Naive, forlorn hope it may be, so be it. But supporting him doesn't immediately mean 'you'd rather have the Tories in and moan in opposition'. That's just nonsense.

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22 minutes ago, Dead Mike said:

Not what I said but you can pretend it is if it makes it easier for you. Supporting Corbyn despite the electorate largely hating him doesn't make anyone a Tory, just naive/deluded....take your pick.

Corbyn is toxic to the majority of voters & is the primary reason why Labour are consistently polling behind arguably the worst Tory government we've seen. Media bias undoubtably plays a large part but that's the reality of the situation. Keeping him as Labour leader helps the Tories, provably so.

But as Carbomb said, it doesn't matter who the leader is if they're from the left, they will get the same treatment as Corbyn and have the same polling. At which point, you have to decide if you're going to sell out or hope you can get your message out via social media, people on the streets, skywriting, subliminal messaging, involuntary hypnosis, the transperambulation of pseudo-cosmic anti-matter, puppetry of the penis, etc. 

Maybe Corbyn has been there too long, but you simply can't disregard 2017 as a one-off just because it fits your narrative. Regardless of the reasons why, it wasn't supposed to happen at all. He was in a similar position in the polls then as he is now. The Telegraph-commissioned poll on the day of the election gave the tories a 100 seat majority. I'm never letting that one go because it shows you how full of shit they are. Neither am I saying he can definitely win a majority. As stumobir said, and as I did a while back last time we chatted about this, I think a coalition with SNP is gettable.

One more thing about media bias. Not how it derails Corbyn, but how the tories somehow maintain 36-38% of the vote on an almost unflinching level, despite a cabinet of some of the most evil, lying, sociopathic shitheads ever to hold public office, championed by the biggest lying cunt of them all in Johnson. 

 

Edited by hallicks

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I don't see how the Tories can hold onto their Scottish seats, gain seats in Wales AND fend off the looming threat of Emperor Cunt Farage and his band of Brexit Ballbags. Especially if the UK hasn't left the EU, King Cunt's "dead in a ditch" remark could very well come back to haunt him.

There's also the Lib Dem factor.

Imo the next election is still wide open. I wouldn't bet on any result right now.

 

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Wow. When you've got even a Trump-approving, right-wing Brexiter (as opposed to a Lexiter) like Peter Oborne prepared to actually have a go, you just know far gone BJ is.

 

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And so the trap snaps shut.

The first time Corbyn refused to go for an election, he caught the Tories genuinely napping and messed up their plans.  This time they expected it.  They've got the extension, as he asked, and yet he still refuses to go for it - a narrative that they can now deploy against him when the election DOES happen.

A lot of responses in this thread about how unfair it is that Corbyn is so disliked by the electorate - I totally agree, but putting that all down to the press is just an exercise in self-delusion.  Yes, the press have treated him badly BUT he's a massively easy target due to his past on the fringes of the party when he could hang out with whomsoever he wanted; and his continual shifting in Brexit (however strategically clever it may seem) is putting a lot of voters off.

If Jesus himself was leading the Labour party right now and in Corbyn's position, I'd still be hoping they ditched him for one of the more moderate disciples.  The Tories need to be stopped - and he's not the guy to do it.

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1 hour ago, Loki said:

If Jesus himself was leading the Labour party right now and in Corbyn's position, I'd still be hoping they ditched him for one of the more moderate disciples.  The Tories need to be stopped - and he's not the guy to do it.

Rest of your post is correct, but come on - he's not "immoderate" or "hard left", for fuck's sake. He's espousing policies that Harold Wilson enacted while he was PM. He's tactically and strategically wrong-headed, but he's not the Marxist/Communist/Trotskyist the media's making him out to be (partly because they don't know what they're fucking talking about). If he was, he and Labour might be proposing some fundamental changes to our social and economic paradigm that might actually change life for people, instead of just carrying on with the same-old same-old.

Also, the Blairite/Gaitskellite wing of the party are not "moderates". This is the problem I have with the Left-Right spectrum thing - "Centre/Centrist" doesn't mean "moderate", it just means "half-way between two accepted systems". They're not balanced, they're not the "reasonable" route, they're just in between.

Edited by Carbomb

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The date of the extension hasn't been agreed yet has it? So the same reason applies for not going for an election yet, to stop no deal happening by default. If EU confirms Jan 31 I think they'll go for it. 

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5 hours ago, Loki said:

They've got the extension, as he asked, and yet he still refuses to go for it...

 

4 hours ago, hallicks said:

The date of the extension hasn't been agreed yet has it?

Exactly, the extension has been asked for but is yet to be granted or the terms for it announced.

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Also nobody wants a bloody election in December.

Quote

Corbyn is toxic to the majority of voters & is the primary reason why Labour are consistently polling behind arguably the worst Tory government we've seen

Corbyn was 20 points behind in 2017. Yes she was shit, but polls are pretty meaningless given how our electoral system works.

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