thevestofdeanambrose Posted November 4, 2020 Posted November 4, 2020 Biden down to evens on the market now. Looks like we are on another swing! Fingers crossed!!
Paid Members BomberPat Posted November 4, 2020 Paid Members Posted November 4, 2020 2 hours ago, Dead Mike said: Nobody who supports him cares if he lies, same deal as over here. Those who are genuinely surprised by this are those who are still looking at politics though an 'old' lense. One of the first Tweets I saw this morning was someone saying "the American public need to realise that the President is lying to them", and it really pissed me off. How can we be this far in and have people still not realise that "but but but he's lying" doesn't achieve anything when he's proved time and time again that he can lie with impunity and with zero consequence, and his supporters have proved that they don't give a shit so long as it's not them at the sharp end of it? Only the other day I saw someone talking about some legal quagmire the Trump kids are wrapped up in, and how they're "in serious trouble". As if this time the Trumps have been dishonest and broken the law will be the one that finally nails them, unlike every other time before. People clinging to points of electoral or political protocol as being the thing that might turn the public against him - what are you going to do, impeach him again? We've had four years of the political and journalistic class acting as if somewhere there's a mechanism to have him removed on a technicality, rather than actually opposing him in any meaningful sense, or working to resolve any of the problems that gave us Trump in the first place. And, honestly, if Biden wins I think it only gets worse. You end up with a furious Donald Trump backed up by QAnon conspiracy nutjobs and people who have tied their identity so closely to their support of him that they're in too deep to back out now, contesting the result for months. If this is called for Biden, it's not going to be over in days, or even weeks. Trump and his cronies will attempt to tie this up through every legal mechanism available to them, while working to question and undermine the legitimacy of Biden's presidency through every other channel. That will hang over Biden for the entirety of his presidency. Meanwhile, Trump won't just disappear or (as people still madly, naively seem to believe) ever face justice. He'll basically go into full-time campaign mode, free of the (for him, minimal) commitments of the actual work of being presidency, he'll do media appearances with tame journalists, and increasingly deranged rallies where - even moreso than now - he can promise his base the world with absolutely no requirement to deliver. Meanwhile, the Democrats will treat Biden's win as a victory for Back To Normal, Business As Usual, without realising that Business As Usual is broken, and Business As Usual being broken is what gave us Trump in the first place - arguably, it's what gave us Obama as a hope/change candidate, and his failure to deliver on that in any meaningful sense only exacerbated the problem. By resting on their laurels and thinking that a Biden win would be anything less than a pyrrhic victory, all they're doing is throwing open the doors for either a resurgent Trump in 2024, or something even worse.
Paid Members Cod Eye Posted November 4, 2020 Paid Members Posted November 4, 2020 I might be clutching at straws here, but I'm paying close attention to the running totals on the BBC. Biden has just gained an extra 1% of the vote in Michigan, for only 1% extra on the vote count. That's encouraging, isn't it?
Guest Posted November 4, 2020 Posted November 4, 2020 To be fair I've seen no evidence of the Democrats treating a Biden win as "business as usual." They're campaigning on the message to "Build Back Better" and are talking about reforms to both the police and the courts. Biden talks of being a transitional president, wanting to raise up a new generation. Of course all of this can be dismissed as empty rhetoric, but I'm seeing nothing to contradict it so far.
Paid Members tiger_rick Posted November 4, 2020 Paid Members Posted November 4, 2020 Obama was hamstrung by a Republican house. Biden won't have that problem. There's hope there if he scrapes this. Closed slightly in Michigan but still a big gap. Some significant Cities to count though. Nevada is getting close though, less than 1% in it now.
Factotum Posted November 4, 2020 Posted November 4, 2020 I suppose Trump going on for 4 years about a conspiracy as to why he didn't win will make a change from Hillary going on about a conspiracy as to why she didn't win. Kinda mad, that Biden could still end up winning quite comfortably electoral college wise.
Paid Members tiger_rick Posted November 4, 2020 Paid Members Posted November 4, 2020 Betfair have Biden favourite again. Trump was 4/9 this morning, now out to 5/4. Michigan now down to less than 1.5% in Trumps favour and less than 68k votes. Was 200k+ only an hour ago. 87% counted. Edit: Trump 11/8 now.
Guest Posted November 4, 2020 Posted November 4, 2020 People are going to drive themselves mad following every little twist and turn. Stop it. Think of your health. *refreshes Twitter*
Paid Members LaGoosh Posted November 4, 2020 Paid Members Posted November 4, 2020 27 minutes ago, tiger_rick said: Betfair have Biden favourite again. Trump was 4/9 this morning, now out to 5/4. Michigan now down to less than 1.5% in Trumps favour and less than 68k votes. Was 200k+ only an hour ago. 87% counted. Edit: Trump 11/8 now. I've never bet on anything and don't really know what any of the above figures mean or how they are calculated. What does Trump being at 11/8 mean?
Paid Members tiger_rick Posted November 4, 2020 Paid Members Posted November 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, LaGoosh said: I've never bet on anything and don't really know what any of the above figures mean or how they are calculated. What does Trump being at 11/8 mean? Simplistically, it means he's now second favourite. Just divide them and look at the ratios. 4/9 = 0.44. 11/8 = 1.375. So that's how much you'd win for every £1 bet. In a two horse race, unless it's dead even, the one that's less than 1 is the favourite and the further below 1, the bigger favourite they are and vice versa.
Paid Members Jazzy G Posted November 4, 2020 Paid Members Posted November 4, 2020 If memory serves odds of 11/8 means if you bet £8 you'd get £11 back if he won (you win £3). It means the odds have slipped slightly from 5/4 (£4 bet, £5 back), but not by a lot. This is still a pretty safe bet, but not as much as Biden's even money, which ostensibly means if he wins you'll get your money back.
Members SuperBacon Posted November 4, 2020 Members Posted November 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, jazzygeofferz said: which ostensibly means if he wins you'll get your money back. I mean, you back either of them to win and they win you'll get your money back. Too much importance is shown to betting odds IMO. It's almost as if they're always shifting to get people to continuously change and place different bets. (Well aware it is mostly to do with action placed)
Paid Members Carbomb Posted November 4, 2020 Paid Members Posted November 4, 2020 I wasn't going to pay any attention to the results until the final declaration. Fuck it, low blood-pressure's overrated anyway.
Moderators Chest Rockwell Posted November 4, 2020 Moderators Posted November 4, 2020 52 minutes ago, Factotum said: I suppose Trump going on for 4 years about a conspiracy as to why he didn't win will make a change from Hillary going on about a conspiracy as to why she didn't win. Huh? ? I literally haven't heard a peep from Hillary once since she lost the election.
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