Paid Members JNLister Posted November 4, 2020 Paid Members Share Posted November 4, 2020 58 minutes ago, Cod Eye said: I really hope your right! It's going to rumble on for months though, isn't it? What strings is Trump clutching at that makes him think he would have a case to take it to the supreme court? The two main possibilities so far: * Until 2020 Pennsylvania law said mail-in ballots had to be received by the day of the election. That was changed to say they had to be postmarked by election day and received by three days after. That wound up in the Supreme Court, which voted 4-4 on whether to ban that change before the election. The officials are going to count the ballots received in the next three days separately in case the case winds up back there and they vote to retrospectively ban the change, in which case they can just knock them off the totals. This only becomes relevant if Trump is ahead once the votes received by yesterday are counted. * One county in Pennsylvania had been contacting people who made an administrative error in their mail-in ballot (such as not signing the cover form) and giving them the chance to come in and correct it. The Republicans are suing to say it's not fair to do that in one county but not others and to fix it, these ballots should be disqualified. It's a bit of a legal stretch and it's unclear if it would affect the result anyway.  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members JNLister Posted November 4, 2020 Paid Members Share Posted November 4, 2020 A bit of visual context as to how the results played out against expectations. This is the 538 "snake chart" which shows the states lined up in order of how big the margin of victory was forecast to be. The big line down the middle is the winning post, which is why Pennsylvania was forecast to be the "tipping point" state. The colours are which way 538 predicted was most likely for each state to go, though obviously the ones in the middle were not far off a "coin toss". The two brackets I've drawn (at the ends of Pennsylvania and Texas) are pretty much the limits of the outcomes that seemed plausible based on the polling and potential error. Assuming the remaining states go as expected, the line between Arizona and Florida is where the actual result will be. It's really only three states that were "wrongly" forecast (and in each of those cases Trump was predicted as having a 30-40 percent chance of winning.) Upshot is that if you had realistic expectations based on the polls, the likely result should be mildly surprising but certainly not shocking.  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members garynysmon Posted November 4, 2020 Paid Members Share Posted November 4, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gaffer Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Whilst there's no detracting from the misery of Trump's growth, it appears Biden has become the presidential candidate to receive the most votes in a US election in history, with more still to count. It's something which I found utterly gobsmacking when I first read it, even though obviously this election has had a massive turnout. In my head nothing could ever get quite as zeitgeisty as 2008 and Change, but there you go. So after four years scraping the bottom of the barrel, Trump's an even bigger inexplicable force than before. But it's still looking plausible he could just about lose to one of the all time underwhelming Democratic candidates. I know you can spin these kind of things any way you want to, but that's my spin. I'm keeping my silver lining. And will be far more excited for Joe to get over the line than I felt like I could have been before the last night of buttfuck befuddlement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members LaGoosh Posted November 4, 2020 Paid Members Share Posted November 4, 2020 Â Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gaffer Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Â Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members tiger_rick Posted November 4, 2020 Paid Members Share Posted November 4, 2020 This was tweeted although Twitter has labelled it as no official source has confirmed it. PA now down to 8.3% in Trumps favour (480k votes) having been over 12% and 600k votes a few hours ago. Still an estimated 20% of the votes to count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members JNLister Posted November 4, 2020 Paid Members Share Posted November 4, 2020 It appears most/all of the networks won't be doing an "official"Â projection for Wisconsin because it's within 1 percent. If that holds, then unless Biden wins Pennsylvania we may never get an overall winner called until the states certify their final results (which can take weeks.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith Houchen Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Live chat is still shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperBacon Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Keith Houchen said: Live chat is still shit. Innit. At least wait until we've seen the Trump highlights on Fash Of The Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gaffer Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Â Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Chest Rockwell Posted November 4, 2020 Moderators Share Posted November 4, 2020 2 hours ago, BomberPat said: Â I have a slightly unhinged and unsubstantiated theory that, in having set Separation Of Church & State in stone early in their development, before having truly organically negotiated the role of religion in public life the way older countries had reckoned with for centuries, America ended up in a position where, despite being an ostensibly secular nation, the concepts of Church & State became utterly intertwined, rather than separated. In some respects that's evidenced in outright evangelical Christianity, but I think it's actually more apparent in ostensibly secular patriotism across all aspects of their political life. They don't see the Constitution or Bill of Rights as man-made documents, or in any way fallible, but as holy scripture - how often do you hear them refer to "God-given rights"? - while the flag, and the abstract notion of "America" stands in for God. You have to also factor in the fact that the country was founded by people who left the uk because it wasn't religious enough for them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperBacon Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 ABC* (which has been really decent all night/day) have just said Georgia wont be counted until FRIDAY. The states is too big, cut it in halve. *The anchor George went for a 3 hour nap and is back full time now. What a pro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith Houchen Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 26 minutes ago, SuperBacon said: The states is too big, cut it in halve. They tried that once, didn’t work out too well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Briefcase Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 This might be a really dumb question - but with the postal votes how do they know they are legit? Do they tick names off a list? Is this inputted onto a PC? Basically could someone be naughty and change/add more postal votes? Not suggesting its happened, just wasn't sure how bullet proof it was, this is America after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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