The General Politics Thread v2.0 (AKA the "Labour are Cunts" thread)

[JNLister]

Whacking it in here, don't fall into the trap of thinking the BBC's projected national share (Labour 34, Conservative 25, Lib Dem 17, Other 24) is a sign the opinion polls are off or that we're headed for a hung parliament/narrow Labour win.

These figures are a projection of what the national vote share would have been in yesterday's local elections if every ward in the country had been voting. They are not meant to relate in any way to what would have happened/will happen in a general election. They are useful only for comparing to previous PNS figures. (Short version: no real change from last year.)

The difference is that in local elections, many more people are voting in a contest where somebody other than Labour or Conservative has a serious shot at victory, so the Lib Dems and others get more votes. In a general election, the seats cover bigger and more diverse areas, so it's more likely to be a straight Labour-Conservative battle and make tactical voting necessary. (There's also a possible factor of people treating local elections as the place to do the protest vote/vote with their hearts but treat the general election as a straight choice between the two main contenders for government.)

[Fog Dude]

The analysts on the TV said they've made their projections based on just over 2 million votes that have come in from yesterday so far. At the last general election there were more than 32 million votes cast, so it's a relatively small sample size (albeit way more than any opinion poll). 

Not a single vote was cast in Scotland this week, for starters. Politics is massively in flux again north of the border. The other thing to note is that Reform only put up candidates in around 1 in 8 wards this time, whereas for the general they claim they'll be standing in every constituency. 

Anyway, North Wales was a Labour hold - might sound obvious but that's actually a good result compared to both 2019 and 2021 when the Tories topped the poll across the region. In my old haunt of Avon & Somerset, there was a Labour gain but that was entirely down to the huge margin in Bristol where the Greens pushed Conservatives down into third place. In the rural areas trends suggest nasty pieces of work like Jack Lopresti, Rees-Mogg and Marcus Fysh would keep their seats, but then again turnout was pitiful there. 

The other results that stand out to me are Tories managing to lose Norfolk and North Yorkshire, although hopefully that's not a massive endorsement of the current state of Labour either.

[Donald J Trump]

1 hour ago, JNLister said:

Whacking it in here, don't fall into the trap of thinking the BBC's projected national share (Labour 34, Conservative 25, Lib Dem 17, Other 24) is a sign the opinion polls are off or that we're headed for a hung parliament/narrow Labour win.

These figures are a projection of what the national vote share would have been in yesterday's local elections if every ward in the country had been voting. They are not meant to relate in any way to what would have happened/will happen in a general election. They are useful only for comparing to previous PNS figures. (Short version: no real change from last year.)

The difference is that in local elections, many more people are voting in a contest where somebody other than Labour or Conservative has a serious shot at victory, so the Lib Dems and others get more votes. In a general election, the seats cover bigger and more diverse areas, so it's more likely to be a straight Labour-Conservative battle and make tactical voting necessary. (There's also a possible factor of people treating local elections as the place to do the protest vote/vote with their hearts but treat the general election as a straight choice between the two main contenders for government.)

A good example of this would be the last general election in 2019. We had local elections in May, and a GE towards the end of the year, which I expect will be the case this time around. It's not a perfect example however, as the winning party changed leaders. The projected national equivalent for both Labour and Conservative was 28% each, Lib Dems 19%, and everyone else 25%. 

At the General Election later that year Conservatives took 43.63%, Labour 32.08 and Lib Dem 11.55%. Even taking into account the fact that it was a slightly chaotic few months between elections, it supports the idea that we shouldnt read too much into the PNE/PNS for this local election. When you factor in Reform, areas that weren't voting yesterday and the fact that for many it will be a binary choice at the next election, I expect the picture to be different, for Labours share of the vote at least. 

I wouldnt be surprised if the Tories remained around the 25% mark, and Reform selling out isn't off the table either. 

[Jazzy G]

The front of today's i was pretty grim reading today as well. Starmer and members of his shadow cabinet going to meet with Trump and his inner circle, and the Trump reps saying they preferred them compared to their government equivalents? I know you have to try and keep the Americans onside, but to actually resonate more with Trump than the Tories do? Scary.

[Devon Malcolm]

48 minutes ago, Jazzy G said:

The front of today's i was pretty grim reading today as well. Starmer and members of his shadow cabinet going to meet with Trump and his inner circle, and the Trump reps saying they preferred them compared to their government equivalents? I know you have to try and keep the Americans onside, but to actually resonate more with Trump than the Tories do? Scary.

In fairness, I wouldn't read much into that.

As much as the easy answer would be to say that this proves Starmer is a Tory, there's also the fact that Trump sees the writing on the wall. He knows Starmer will be the next Prime Minister so he's going to get himself onside with him for his own personal relationship benefit as soon as possible.

Of course, Starmer's mob should have told him to fuck off. But he's a spineless prick and it does indeed prove he's a Tory. That's who you're all voting and advocating for. 

Edited May 3 by Devon Malcolm

[Donald J Trump]

Trumps the guy at the party that'll talk to you but he's always looking around the room for somebody more important/interesting. He also suffers from chronic recency bias in that he's more likely to lean heavily towards the last thing that's happened, whether it's advice he's received or people he's met. If he sat down with Sunak and his people tomorrow they'd be flavour of the month until he met Starmer again. It's just how he operates. 

For Starmers part in it whilst finding common ground with Trump might give centrist dad's like myself the creeps it's just pragmatic politics again. Given where he's positioned himself there's no political capital to be gained in refusing to play the game. I really wish the political, media and electoral landscape weren't entirely at odds with my own moral/political compass but I can't kid myself, it is what it is. 

[Weezenal]

I feel like your username isn’t you,@Donald J Trump

[Merzbow]

It's looking like Sadiq Khan is steamrolling through to victory, the way it's going he'll have an even bigger lead than last time.

[SuperBacon]

You love to see it.

[Keith Houchen]

Andy Burnham remains King In The North in a surprise to nobody. He got 63% while second got 10%. 

[Carbomb]

42 minutes ago, Keith Houchen said:

Andy Burnham remains King In The North in a surprise to nobody. He got 63% while second got 10%. 

The commentators were saying that it seems like he was the Labour equivalent of Ben Houchen, in that his personal brand outperformed the party's.

[Devon Malcolm]

43 minutes ago, Carbomb said:

The commentators were saying that it seems like he was the Labour equivalent of Ben Houchen, in that his personal brand outperformed the party's.

He's been a decent mayor even if his pledges on homelessness have failed appallingly. His transport and Covid positions have been very good though and I might have voted for him if he'd made a firm pledge on building a Metrolink line to Stockport. The new bus station is a good start though.

Meanwhile, #TelAvivKeith has been trending all afternoon as Starmer's popularity shows no sign of abating.

[Keith Houchen]

14 minutes ago, Devon Malcolm said:

He's been a decent mayor even if his pledges on homelessness have failed appallingly

He gave up on this very quickly too. 

 

[Donald J Trump]

6 hours ago, Weezenal said:

I feel like your username isn’t you,@Donald J Trump

In hindsight, I perhaps should have went with a WWE Hall of Famer who's moral outlook isn't entirely at odds with my own (and it seems the overwhelming majority of the forum). I might enquire to see if VKM is available. 

Burnham has always had that likeability factor, even going back to the last days of the Reich under Gordon Brown. Getting out of Westminster, keeping a high profile and ensuring he was doing something constructive while Jezza was at the helm turned out to be fortuitous, if not shrewdly calculated. If he does decide to come back to Westminster further down the road, he'll have left himself well positioned for a shot at the leadership if the timing works out. 

 

[westlondonmist]

3 hours ago, Merzbow said:

It's looking like Sadiq Khan is steamrolling through to victory, the way it's going he'll have an even bigger lead than last time.

It's hard to fully compare as previously London used supplementary vote. Done better based on 1st votes from 21 to 24 (43% rather than 40%) but people may have voted differently. Say give Binface first vote, Kahn second but this time just voting Kahn. 

 

Sadly Binface lost 165 votes but turnout was lower.

 

Im not surprised the turnout was low, even lower than COVID times 21 election. Kahn isn't popular but the Conservatives are not popular in London at all and are pretty much a single policy party (ULEZ).