Covid-19 Megathread

[ElCece]

7 hours ago, CAREBEAR LUVVA said:

I've been in a similar situation since this whole thing kicked off. Finally managed to speak to a GP at my local surgery a few days ago, who looked through my notes and immediately decided I should be on the vulnerable list. I had a text message the following day to confirm, then "the letter" arrived the day after that. The doc reckons loads of people have been missed off the official list due to how quickly it was put together. Might be worth registering yourself here just in case:

https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus-extremely-vulnerable

It's not even the speed it's been put together. It's a mixture of the fact information needs to be collated from secondary and primary care and they are held in very different systems to pairing the 2 data sets isn't a fail safe and the how the GPs and consultants keep there data. Often it is accurate and well kept but not in a format or place that is accessible to the people pulling centrally.

Also worth noting there is an element of clinical judgement for most of the High risk categories so therefore the process requires that final call to come from the GP. 

 

[Divorced Dad]

Wifey and I went to get tested today after she developed a cough in the last few days. It was quite a surreal experience to be honest.

The closest test centre to us is in the long stay car park at Glasgow Airport so we drove there. When you arrive you're greeted by a barrier and signs everywhere telling you to keep your windows up. Someone approaches your car with a piece of paper asking you to show ID which you show through the window. You're then directed through a series of checkpoints (round a one way system) where all communication is done by someone holding up a sign telling you what to do and you responding with hand gestures etc. Eventually you are directed to a large white drive thru tent where you are again instructed to keep your window up until instructed to put it down. 

Someone comes out of the portakabin with the swab kit, they put it down your throat first until you gag and scrape the back of your throat with it before taking it out and putting it straight up your nose while twisting it round. You're then given a card with a QR code/barcode on it to scan when you get home to register to receive your results by text. 

In the 15 minutes we were there we were the only car in the whole of the test centre. 5 tents with portakabins inside with 2 NHS staff in each and about 25 security guards and we were the only bloody car there. Like I say it was a surreal experience. 

Just need to sit and wait now to receive the results in the next 72 hours. 

[Hugh Thesz]

@Divorced Dad

Hope this all works out well

[Ted]

I’m over a week into self isolation now & we’re fairly certain my mum did have Coronavirus.  Thankfully she only had mild symptoms but had to monitor her oxygen levels for a few days when she was breathless.  I’m not sure if I’ve had it though, I’ve had a couple of odd days & hour spells where I don’t feel right but no fever or major cough although my mum didn’t either.

During the government update on Friday last week they announced my job role was eligible for testing but my manager checked & was told that they weren't expecting the guidance on how to get a test arranged until next week by which time my 14 days isolation would have ended so I wasn’t likely to actually get tested.  

[King Pitcos]

On 4/22/2020 at 8:17 PM, Chest Rockwell said:

I'm lucky enough to have a job where I can work from home. As a contractor I don't have the job security that a permanent employee has, so I am really even more lucky they haven't just got rid of me. But all that said, I am finding it really difficult at home to motivate myself to work. I should be busting a gut to prove my worth and keep my job, as there's no chance I'd get another one in this economic climate but I'm finding it tough to do anything more than the bare minimum. I need to do something to get myself to snap out of it..

I’m spending most days just trying to stay awake, hoping none of my colleagues skype me for anything, and texting my furloughed friends calling them jammy bastards. I live for the feeling of relief at about quarter to five, when pretty much everyone else has logged off and I know I’m safe from a bothering.

Because of this, on days with hard deadlines, I’m very rushed.

Edited April 23, 2020 by King Pitcos

[David]

There was an interesting press conference with Swedish health minister Anders Tegnell the other day, carried out in Swedish obviously. Luckily, there's been a few translations into English doing the rounds and it amounts to this. It's pretty lengthy, but what else do any of us have to do anyway?

Quote

Sweden, led by Tegnell and his colleagues at FHM, went its own way, to the shock of the world, and created its own model to achieve national herd immunity. Moderate social distancing was advised (but not enforced) and the focus was on protecting the elderly. Businesses were advised to limit density of crowds, schools were not closed—life went on. It’s working.

“The curve is very flat, really since the beginning of April and that’s very good news,” Tegnell said. “It’s very good news, there’s no rise in cases in Stockholm, at all.”

Tegnell said Sweden has fanned out with regional testing, and they are finding that about 1/3 of the populations tested are positive and not sick, while 2/3 have never been exposed. “We’ve started testing a lot of healthcare professionals,” he said.

Sweden does not count positive RNA PCR tests as “cases” but rather calculates case loads from patients presenting with acute symptoms to the emergency hospitals, known as “IVA.” Once again, Tegnell used the word “flat”

“It’s rather flat. Looking at Sweden and the number of IVA cases, the IVA cases have not moved. We have 15,000 new cases reported and one thousand one hundred fifty eight people who have been treated at IVA so far.”

The number of deaths, he said is very complex and hard to get at, because Sweden is still trying to toggle between the death registry and the IVA to see how many deaths may be COVID-19 and which ones are not. In Sweden, like it is in the rest of the world, those who died had co-morbid conditions, were over 65, and many over 80 or even 90 years old. The main comorbidities were diabetes, hypertension, chronic heart and lung conditions, and obesity. A total of 1536 sought medical care for COVID-19, and all told, 1209 people have been hospitalized. No children have gotten any form of what is called COVID-19 in Sweden.

Tegnell pointed out that this data was evident from Wuhan and has remained consistent: Children neither spread it nor get it. He spoke of a school in Finland where a child was “infected” but nobody else at the school was infected. Nor did the child get sick.

The deaths have been (as far as I can tell) entirely in the elderly and primarily those in nursing homes. Deaths from what? I need to call them “Ostensible COVID-19 Deaths.”

First of all, how many have died in Sweden of Ostensible Covid (OC)? 100,000 are said to have died in all of Europe but that number is very questionable, since there is no agreed upon standard of determining a COVID-19 death from an influenza or multiple-underlying-causes pulmonary death.

Tegnell said he and his team had begin testing sample populations that exhibited no symptoms. Over the past three weeks they have tested approximately 20,000 people per week, including health care workers, in various parts of Sweden. “It was about two and a half percent that tested positive,” Tegnell said. “If we let our statistical mathematicians calculate this, they’ve arrived that the most cases hit us on April 15th, a week ago and then the peak was reached. That doesn’t mean the spread stops, but that was the peak of the curve. This model also says that in a week, at around the first of May, about a third of Stockholm’s residents will have been exposed, but two thirds have not been exposed and can still be exposed. We also have studies that show that for every confirmed case, there are 999 others who have not sought medical care. Mild cases that have been cleared up at home. It speaks to that there are very many who never need a diagnosis. Diagnosis is not important. Those who need (go for) medical care get diagnosed.”

“This modeling is consistent with the one presented last week by Thomas Britton. We will refine it as we get more data. We’re going to keep testing various regions of Sweden and see how many are sick and refine our modeling. We’re going to get more data for all of Sweden. And we’re going to do studies on immunity to see how many have already been exposed by measuring antibody reactions. All this points to understanding how we’re going to act, it’s also the basis of our strategy.”

“Together we can stop the spread. Even if we’ve plateaued and it’s not increasing, that doesn’t mean there’s no spread. Like we said two-thirds can still be exposed, so stay home even if you feel a little bit sick. So, wash your hands with soap and water. If you’re seventy years or older, stay home and avoid contact with people.”

Denmark is reportedly planning to allow gatherings of up to 500 people starting on May 11th. There were also questions about something being announced on April 30, to which Tegnell smiled wryly and said: “Ask the government,” suggesting that he does indeed have the full support and backing of Prime Minster Stefan Lofven, a Social Democrat.

In other words, Sweden says, it’s not a case until somebody seeks treatment. Positive PCR tests (naturally) are emerging in other parts of the country, and the pattern emerging is that most who test positive have no symptoms. Addressing acute care (and contrast this with Andrew Cuomo’s daily morbid, self-important braying) Tegnell said:

“As I said the IVA cases are at a very consistent level with possible decline of late. No dramatic changes there. Dead per day: we found—everybody who was reported as a COVID patient, we ran them in the computers against the death registry and we found some COVID deaths that were not reported earlier. [Retroactively, there was a slight spike.] We caught a few more cases that way. In conclusion, we’re following the blue curve, we’re under-capacity in the hospitals in Stockholm and the rest of Sweden. But to stay there, it’s important that we not lose these fundamental messages about staying home if you feel sick. And for those who are seventy or older, it’s important to reduce contact with different people. Do go out and exercise, but don’t go to places with a lot of people. Think about hygiene and social distancing so we stay on this curve.”

One of his colleagues spoke next. (She did not give her name.) He message was short and to the point:

“No region is reporting a rise in catastrophic medical preparedness. Nobody is reporting that being activated and this is very positive. Those of us who work with catastrophic medical preparedness… it means that we can continue to keep our eyes on the two-thirds that are not infected.”

Let me drive home the point: The country that did not lock down its people, has seen no region reporting any rise in catastrophic medical preparedness.

A reporter asked Tegnell: (compare and contrast with Trump pressers)

“I’m asking on behalf of my mother, I’ve been buying food for my parents for several weeks because they’ve been self-isolating. It’s not problem, to buy food for them but they miss their grandchildren a lot and I can imagine many more who also do. She’s wondering when she can hug her grandchildren again. Can you say anything? How long shall our elderly have to be without their grandchildren?”

Tegnell replied:

“It’s a very difficult question. Just because the curve is flattening and all the numbers are staying low, it doesn’t mean we can feel totally secure for our elderly because most of them will not have immunity and that’s what we’re talking about now, we’re talking about this exit strategy, when can you let things go. And we feel it will take a bit of time before we can release the protections around our elderly because they’re going to continue to be vulnerable. I would say it will be a few more months. [Before they can hug their grandchildren.] We’re going to solve a lot of problems when we get the population immune, but the elderly, we’re still working on how to protect them. And we’re also looking at getting better tests, so we can determine that the grandchildren are immune. That’s one possible solution. If these tests work out well and we can guarantee that a person is no longer infected—it’s still a little shaky. We don’t have a great solution or great answer right now.”

A reporter asked about the deaths. Tegnell’s answer was very interesting. Again, Sweden does not diagnose COVID cases nor deaths with the promiscuity/laxity/non-specificity seen in other parts of the world.

“We don’t use deaths for our modeling because they are too uncertain in many different ways,” he said. “But our modeling instead is based around diagnosed cases. We have said several times deaths are important in many ways, but not when it comes to building strategies because there’s too long [an interval] between getting exposed and dying. We’ve done this quality control against the death registry for cases where they died long, long after they were exposed and for some reason were not picked up by our healthcare system. But now with this new quality control system, we’re finding them. We do this once a week.”

Asked again if the overall trend was a flattening of the curve, he said yes. Then he continued to quietly blaspheme against the global new religion of COVID-Panic, driven by mass media’s unexamined assertions, by saying this:

“We still know very little about this illness, above all how it spreads. But even the earliest data from China pointed to children not being vulnerable for infection. That data was already available from many different sources and it depends of course, how you interpret that data. I haven’t seen any data about contagion in schools. All the data I’m seeing is that children don’t get sick. Data from Iceland and other places all point to that children are not contagious. We found a few cases in Sweden and Finland of positive children but they didn’t spread to anybody. Even if it isn’t highly publicized, there’s a lot of data saying schools aren’t a driver of Covid.”

Why then, did America close its schools?

Why then, do we seem focused on “experts” that can not even get the data with which they form their models correct?

Why then, does anybody believe a word Bill Gates says?

A reporter asked: “In France and Denmark they’re saying 15 students in class, 2 meters social distancing. What do you think of this?” Again, Tegnell’s reply was quietly, soberly, explosive. “You’re talking about countries that have been under lock-down. When you do lock-down—it’s always a worry when you’ve had total lock-down that you’ll get a sudden spike of very many cases and many people who weren’t infected will be hit. In Sweden we’ve had a low spread the whole time, probably also in the schools which means we don’t have to worry about these spikes. There are recommendations also for Swedish schools. They’re discovering in France I’m sure, it’s very difficult to enforce them.” Faint smile.  (Picture children when the bell rings for recess. How would you enforce “social distancing, to minds who can’t yet think in terms of processed ideological submission?)

A reporter from Norway asked why statistical bureau SCB seemed to have contradictory data. Tegnell: “No we all have the same basic data and the same death registry that SCB has so I don’t think there should be a discrepancy.”

Norwegian reporter: “But is it rising or is it flattening?”

Tegnell: “Our curves that are much longer than SCB’s, we see a very stable level right now.”

Lastly, two reporters asked about two high tourist areas—Blekinge and Gotland, both isolated, what have almost no “cases,” a number below 20. They want to know whether the parts of Sweden with very slow spread will be behind the rest of the country, meaning not have achieved herd immunity. (Though nobody expressly uses the term.)

Tegnell says: “This is a brand new model we’ve brought forward now and it was not the basis for our decisions but we’re going to keep refining them and it’s going to continue guiding us going forward, especially when we think about how we can ease restrictions in society. There are many parts of the country where the spread is going very slowly. We have to be very careful not to make long term interpretations based on that.”

The reporter persists, asking: “What are the chances that Blekinge and Gotland are so isolated that they will continue to have fewer cases when the pandemic is over?”

Tegnell replies:

“This illness is unpredictable. It would surprise me if over time most parts of Sweden would not have about the same number of people infected.”

A reporter asks yet another question about Ingmar Bergman’s beloved island, where he lived most of his life: “On Gotland, we’ve had 19 positives for a very long time, which is very good and there’s great hope that we should be able to travel this summer. Since Gotland has these very few cases, won’t we be more vulnerable if we can’t get these numbers up?”

Tegnell replies, “Well that could be, I can’t promise that in parts of the country where there are extremely low infection rates that they wouldn’t go up later.”

Journalist: “So how to you look upon opening Gotland for the summer for tourism?”

Tegnell: “We’ll see, too early to say.”

The last question is, “We understand there’s going to be a big press conference on April 30th.”

Tegnell:

“I’ll leave that to the government. Ask the government.”

(Smiles)

 

Edited April 24, 2020 by David

[Hannibal Scorch]

Got the call this morning that my Dad passed away. He was 67. He had had kidney failure as well as the heart failure and though the dialysis worked, I think they were just trying to ease the suffering. Had a good cry this morning and I’m going to go for a long walk to speak to my Aunt and Uncle. 
 

stay safe

[Divorced Dad]

Sorry to hear that @Hannibal Scorch. Thoughts are with you and your family. 

[Onyx2]

So sorry to hear that @Hannibal Scorch. I understand you weren't close but take time to grieve for yourself, and be prepared to have unexpected emotions over the next few weeks. 

[David]

29 minutes ago, Hannibal Scorch said:

Got the call this morning that my Dad passed away. He was 67.

Sorry to hear that Hannibal. Losing a parent relatively young is never easy and my thoughts are with you and your family at this time.

[mim731]

Sorry to hear that Hannibal, hope you're holding up as well as you can be in the circumstances. Even though you've mentioned you weren't close, I can't imagine how difficult this must be, especially with the added stress of the current circumstances, so thoughts are definitely with you and yours.  Take Care. 

[PunkStep]

Sorry to hear of your loss Nick.

[Devon Malcolm]

I'm sorry for your loss. My best wishes and condolences to you and your family.

[Hugh Thesz]

Sorry to read that Hannibal

 

[Guy Bifkin]

That's shit news Hannibal, sorry for your loss. We came very close to losing our uncle but somehow the old warhorse survived despite being over 80 and in the advanced stages of Parkinson's.

In other news, Trump's press conferences continue to resemble something from the cutting room floor for Brasseye, considered too out there to be used.