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Ukraine / Russian War


Loki

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9 minutes ago, gmoney said:

I'll sound trite here, but it doesn't hugely matter who's favourite for the US election now. Nearly 3 years is eons in political terms. 

Not really, Putin laid the groundwork for this in 2014.

Its eons in party politics. In terms of large scale international relations, 3 years is nothing. 

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5 minutes ago, gmoney said:

The US election is party politics, which is what I was referring to. 

Sure, but the longer the US election seems like it’ll go Republican (at this point, it being Trump is irrelevant… the US right is competing to out-Trump Trump anyway) the more likely it is that the Russians will consider a strategy of defiance before turning to NATO countries like Estonia, Poland etc

The US election is the crucial part in the next stage of this, as I still think it’s unlikely Putin will target a NATO country with an internationalist president and administration.

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Trump isn't 'runaway' favourite.

He's currently a best priced 7/2, with Biden at 9/2.

So as a percentage that means that Trump has a 28.5% chance of winning whereas Biden has a 22.5% chance (in the eyes of the bookies of course).

Trump is only 11/8 to be the next Republican Candidate - meaning he's around 60% to not even stand.

 

Edited by Max Power
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51 minutes ago, d-d-d-dAz said:

Runaway favourite currently, yeah.

Just had a quick check on odds checker. He is favourite but I wouldn’t say runaway favourite. Even so, I didn’t even think he’d even get the GOP nomination so he’s already doing way way better than I thought! Fucking hell!

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I think Putin going after Poland or wherever next is getting waaaaay ahead of things. If Ukraine put up a decent enough fight and it ends up in street battles there's a chance of this being an incredibly long drawn out and bloody on both sides affair. If Russia is getting hammered from all sides by brutal sanctions and Russian soldiers are coming home in body bags in droves they'll only be so long before some kind of agreement is made.

Edited by LaGoosh
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With the US Election stuff, it's also worth considering whether Biden will actually stand for re-election given his age. It's not a certainty that Trump or Biden necessarily stands (health issues and age are both potential hurdles), so I wouldn't put too much stock in the results of the 2024 election and how that might affect the current situation just yet.  

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52 minutes ago, Max Power said:

So as a percentage that means that Trump has a 28.5% chance of winning whereas Biden has a 22.5% chance (in the eyes of the bookies of course).

Yeah but add Bernie Sanders into the mix and then they have at most a 33 and 1/3 chance of winning, but Trump has a 66 and 2/3 chance because Biden KNOWS he can't beat Trump with Bernie in the mix. So if you take Biden's 33 and 1/3rd chance minus Trump's 28.5% chance and he has 4 and 3/4s chance of winning. So if you take Trump's 78.5% chance if its just Trump and Biden and add 66 and 2/3'rds percents then Trump has a 145 and 1/10ths chance of winning. The numbers don't lie and Trump will win at US PRESIDENT 2024.

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54 minutes ago, mim731 said:

With the US Election stuff, it's also worth considering whether Biden will actually stand for re-election given his age. It's not a certainty that Trump or Biden necessarily stands (health issues and age are both potential hurdles), so I wouldn't put too much stock in the results of the 2024 election and how that might affect the current situation just yet.  

Absolutely.

 

Betting odds at this stage mean nothing for the presidential (and I suspect aren't even really genuine), the midterms haven't even happened yet. Plus we have two years of all sorts of possible crises that could either shore Biden up or destroy him. And either or both of them could die in that window.

 

It's not a guarantee that trump will run. It's not a guarantee than he'll get the nomination, it's even less of a guarantee that he then goes onto win.

 

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I've probably distorted things by saying Trump. Should 'Trumpism' win the next election, NATO's stance becomes less surefooted.

Trumpism is the problem, not the man himself. And I'd say Republicans are probably a safe bet to sweep the mid-terms, and would be strong favourites for the Presidential election. It's also worth saying it's very unusual for a non-announced candidate from an opposition party to be a favourite, by any margin, to win the next election. It's a sign of the dissatisfaction with the current regime, which itself is a sign that the party could be booted out.

On a separate note, as I don't want to be solely focused on Trump when Ukranian's are living in hell... but it's quite moving to watch the House of Commons on the same page, giving passionate anti-war speeches.

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Not gonna lie lads, this situation is really triggering serious anxiety in me. My wife has banned me from looking at the news because of it. 

The level of anxiety I'm feeling is really irrational, and at the level it should probably be if we actually entered full on war. I catastrophise massively in these situations. Quite a lot of Ukrainians seem to be handling this news better than I am.

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25 minutes ago, d-d-d-dAz said:

On a separate note, as I don't want to be solely focused on Trump when Ukranian's are living in hell... but it's quite moving to watch the House of Commons on the same page, giving passionate anti-war speeches.

It’s also kind of daft. You’ve got Johnson giving it Johnny Big Potatoes like he’s an actual important figure in world politics, that classic British mentality of still thinking they’re at the top table. Like Putin is going to be scared by the UK, he’s already got his agents entrenched over here paying for the tories so he probably laughs at these threats. It’s like that scene in Mad Men, with Putin being Don Draper

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Johnson has well got a hard on over this because he wants to be a wartime Prime Minister and be all Churchillian, but he’s more chinchillian. One for the Tory cunts thread but I see two days before a Russian bank was sanctioned, Rees Moggs company sold its 44 million pounds worth of shares. I’m sure it’s a coincidence and not insider trading. 

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