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Ukraine / Russian War


Loki
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4 minutes ago, Loki said:

"Putin orders Russian troops into Easter Ukraine" is the current BBC headline.  Yowzers, that was faster than I thought!

And it was all going so well and then you create a bloody thread about it. How are the rest of the horsemen of the apocalypse doing? 

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Watching with interest as someone that lived and worked over there for a years to see how this plays out. "Western" media has portrayed it as intended to be a full scale war, that they'll flatten Kyiv the way they flattened Grozny and it's unlikely to the the case.

A couple of scenarios that Ukrainians and Russians on the ground signposted via twitter have or are coming to pass.

Firstly, Putin has been unhappy with Lukashenko for quite some time (18 months approx.) and there was real talk of Putin changing him for someone more compliant and less inflammatory. That died down for a bit but the migrants crisis (October/November 2021) brought unwanted media attention and Lukashenko did an interview with Steve Rosenberg of the BBC in which he made bold claims about Belarus smashing anyone that disagreed with them. The media backlash riled Putin. Why is this relevant? There's now around 30,000 Russian troops in Belarus "indefinitely" so a regime change there is infinitely easier than it was previously.

Secondly, taking the whole of the Ukraine isn't feasible or justifiable but by encouraging the Russians in Donetsk and Luhansk to declare independence it gives Russia a "justifiable" reason to send troops...to "protect" Russian citizens. That theory was floated a fortnight ago by several natives and it has come to pass. 

Putin knows NATO aren't giving Ukraine membership status any time soon. So he's systematically carving it up to reduce their power and influence and ultimately create a barrier between Ukraine and Russia proper. Having 100,000 troops breathing down your neck is going to force compliance sooner or later. And the world showed in 2008 when Putin invaded Georgia that the threats were empty. There was no international response. Nobody rushed to defend them just as nobody is going to rush to defend Ukraine. 

Russian media (state controlled TV which makes up a majority) have been wall to wall covering this as the Ukraine getting ready to invade, genocide in Donetsk/Luhansk (as there was in Serbia in the '90s) so that any response is "justified." There isn't one news channel that's transmitted anything close to the truth in the last 24 hours. 

And if he does flatten Ukraine, then everyone is buggered because it's not a war that Europe wants or can win, especially with Russia likely to have Chinese backing. 

Anyway that's a ramble. Fascinated (that might sound morbid) by developments since I was last there in November and hope that it is just a land grab of the predominantly Russian demographic areas mentioned above. Anything more serious will have consequences for years to come. 

 

 

Edited by Suplex Sinner
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Brilliant thing to read first thing in the morning. 

The shit is about to imminently hit the fan, I'm almost certain my brother will be being deployed if he hasn't already. 

This is going to be a fucking truly scary situation. I can't imagine it will take long for it all to escalate. And here's us thinking we were going back to normal after covid 

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39 minutes ago, Kfogg1991 said:

The shit is about to imminently hit the fan, I'm almost certain my brother will be being deployed if he hasn't already. 

Unless your brother is in the Ukrainian or Russian army I wouldn't worry. There's no chance that the UK and US are going to declare war on Russia over Ukraine or start any military action. The West will deploy all the soft power political triggers and mechanisms to punish or deter Russia that they have in their arsenal but neither side is willing to start WW3 over Ukraine.

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