Covid-19 Megathread

[Uncle Zeb]

6 hours ago, waters44 said:

Thatcham hospital is right opposite my house! I can almost feel Covid walking over and knocking on my door.

 

6 hours ago, waters44 said:

Somebody hold me and say it’s all going to be ok!

Do you mind if I pass?

[Gay as FOOK]

I have been guilty of overthinking it the last few days, which I'm certainly not enjoying. I made a pact with herself not to discuss it unless it was absolutely necessary - such is the general drain of the newsfeed hysteria - but you invariably find yourself reading through new reports and predictions from those in medical science who've developed a budding career in apocalyptic punditry over the last week or two. My wild guess is that the virus will probably peak in the next few weeks, batter the economy a bit and settle into being a normalized part of the flu season.

I'm not a dyed in the wool hypochondriac by any stretch but I do tend to get a bit overemotional about what I see in the news so this special snowflake is looking forward to it fucking off as soon as possible, even if any pragmatic assessment of the situation deems him to be completely fine and able to deal with it. 

[Undefeated Steak]

11 hours ago, Loki said:

Looking at the infection rates and fatality rates (2%), this could end up being the most serious health crisis this country has seen since Spanish Flu. 

 @wordsfromlee (Won't delete)

What about SARS, with a mortality rate of about 10% or Ebola which had an even higher mortality rate?

This is just the latest virus to get a main event push. For the elderly, there's statistically still a far higher chance they'll catch the flu and die from that, so it's daft to be worried about them getting the coronavirus if you wouldn't normally be overly worried about them catching a flu.

I think it'll be like any other outbreak. Mass panic at first, infected numbers charts shooting up at an alarming rate, but a vaccination or whatever found before it gets too out of control. 

 

Edited March 3, 2020 by Undefeated Steak
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[Keith Houchen]

I’ve had tuberculosis twice, including last year. I’m currently laid up with what feels like a real heavy cold and my breathing is as laboured as Loki’s butler. I’m  dead already, aren’t I. 

[tiger_rick]

Greggs winning again.

 

[Uncle Zeb]

My mum's gone into panic buying mode (toilet rolls, tinned food), and feels dirty for it because she doesn't believe the virus itself will disrupt the supply chain, but doesn't want to be the one caught out when every other numpty's cleared the shelves. Which is hard to argue with, really. Fears of shortages become a self-fulfilling prophecy after a point.

[Chris B]

38 minutes ago, Undefeated Steak said:

What about SARS, with a mortality rate of about 10% or Ebola which had an even higher mortality rate?

Absolutely not claiming to be any expert, but my understanding is that it's not the mortality rate - it's the transmission rate that's the scary bit here. SARS, Ebola... high mortality rates, but you were fairly unlikely to get it. Think closer to the common cold here, in terms of the chances of you catching it. 2% of the people catching it dying would likely be a far higher number than 10% of those with SARS.

Basically, the risk of passing it onto someone vulnerable to it is far higher than with most things like this.

[johnnyboy]

53 minutes ago, Undefeated Steak said:

What about SARS, with a mortality rate of about 10% or Ebola which had an even higher mortality rate?

The incubation period during which a carrier could be infectious without showing symptoms is one of the biggest issues.  Ebola has something like an 80% mortality rate, but it makes you really ill really fast (usually before killing you) so it's not that effective a spreader as no one is letting you on an international flight or going near you when you're bleeding from your eye sockets.

There are people who are carrying this who might not even get a runny nose for another ten days, by which time they've possibly transmitted it to a huge number of people.  Once it has infected enough people it's endemic in the population at large and we just cycle the infection until there's an effective vaccine.

It could end up killing more than something like SARS or Ebola due to the numbers game.  It may "only" kill 2% but 2% of the entire population is more than 10% of a million cases, or 80% of 100,000 cases.

Edited March 3, 2020 by johnnyboy

[johnnyboy]

6 minutes ago, Chris B said:

Absolutely not claiming to be any expert, but my understanding is that it's not the mortality rate - it's the transmission rate that's the scary bit here. SARS, Ebola... high mortality rates, but you were fairly unlikely to get it. 

Yeah, Ebola kills you too quickly for it to spread "efficiently.". If Ebola could spread like this coronavirus we'd have all died already.

[cobra_gordo]

I work for a massive global company and some posters appeared around our building yesterday morning reminding people to wash their hands to stop the spread of viruses. Whilst not specifically referencing Coronavirus/ Covid it wouldn't take a genius to work out that's what they were referring to. The image on the poster? A sneezing Chinese man. The posters had all sadly been taken down by the time I went back to take a picture.

Edited March 3, 2020 by cobra_gordo

[quote the raven]

The country will go into melt down in a few weeks, the panic will see to that. 
 

Part of me wants to be sensible and not add to it and start buying and hoarding but then I don’t want to run out if shit roll. 
 

[Gay as FOOK]

I'd imagine the actual mortality rate is lower than 2% when you factor in that they've gotten that figure from diagnosed cases. The high figures in Wuhan were also whilst hospitals could not meet the huge sudden influx of those presenting with symptoms. Apparently since February the death rate there is just 0.7%. You've got lord knows how many unreported cases out there that came and went as a common cold. 

1 out of every 1,000 people in Hubei contracted this. Containment response should be taken as seriously as possible, but the reporting does seem incredibly alarmist. Social media was in its infancy when swine flu hit in 2009. This is the first proper big boy of the dad's-got-a-Twitter-too age, and it ain't pretty. 

 

Edited March 3, 2020 by Gay as FOOK

[SuperBacon]

1 hour ago, Keith Houchen said:

I’ve had tuberculosis twice, including last year. I’m currently laid up with what feels like a real heavy cold and my breathing is as laboured as Loki’s butler. I’m  dead already, aren’t I. 

If you do, I’ll score an amazing own goal header at 7 a side in your memory mate.

Is anyone else having massive anxiety issues with all this? I don’t know why but I am constantly reading everything about it and it’s really doing my head in. I wish I’d home schooled my kids to be honest. 

Every school drop and pick up I’m eyeing up all this filthy little bastards and guessing which ones are just plain dirty feckers.

And that’s just the parents.

[DavidB6937]

Add me to the list of people having ridiculous anxiety about this. My mum has had breathing issues for years. My wife had pneumonia last year. I don't really give a shit about me but I'm definitely worried about it getting anywhere near them.

I've taken to switching off news alerts etc as I can't be dealing with constant notifications of another person having it. It's too much.

[Loki]

57 minutes ago, Gay as FOOK said:

the reporting does seem incredibly alarmist.

I think it's been super restrained.  Nobody should be having panic attacks about this, but this is the most serious virus this country has seen in a century and we need to start taking it seriously.  I'm surprised we're not taking more measures to limit large crowds etc, that would just seem like a sensible move at this stage.  But I guess they're trying to balance the response against disruption.

PM's statement:
 

Quote

 

From the Chinese study of Covid-19 so far

Risk of dying if you get it per age group

AGE DEATH RATE*

80+ years old 14.8%

70-79 years old 8.0%

60-69 years old 3.6%

50-59 years old 1.3%

40-49 years old 0.4%

30-39 years old 0.2%

20-29 years old 0.2%

10-19 years old 0.2%

0-9 years old no fatalities

Risk of death from pre existing conditions combined with covid-19

PRE-EXISTING CONDITION DEATH RATE*

Cardiovascular disease 10.5%

Diabetes 7.3%

Chronic respiratory disease 6.3%

Hypertension 6.0%

Cancer 5.6%

no pre-existing conditions 0.9%

 

 

Edited March 3, 2020 by Loki