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13 minutes ago, PunkStep said:

Ah, I've just read on BBC that the 'voters have told us to get on with Brexit' line was straight from Theresa May's mouth. Well that explains it then!

Ah.  Wish I'd stumbled across that fucker earlier today.  Explains why I've seen those words attributed to about five different Tory MP's this morning.  Now I'm definitely even more inclined to think that the pro-remain party resurgence has a degree of credibility to it.  Not that I expect that to count for fuck all.  A party, and a leader that's managed to make this degree of monumental fuck up to date, survive no confidence votes, and STILL be in power feels about as bulletproof as it gets at the minute

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The huge problem with scrying local election results are the reasons for voting are so varied. 

In my region, the Conservative paperwork focused on getting Brexit sorted. The Lib Dem flyer talked about how much money the Conservative councillors wasted on a public toilet in our town. How is it useful to bounce these two leaflets against each other when trying to decide who to vote for? 

Local elections should be that; a vote on local issues such as school support, roads, housing developments, environmental issues, whatever matters in your community. But many people - not incorrectly - use it to vote nationally. 

I don't think it's strictly pro-Remain. I interpret the results as a general 'please stop fucking about with Brexit, just sort it out either way' but I can't speak for local initiatives.

I particularly feel for SME businesses whom Conservatives often have support from, needing clarity for their future planning. 

Edited by Onyx2

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Best news of the night had to be Boris tweeting that he'd proudly been out to vote Conservative before deleting the tweet having realised there were no elections happening where he lives.

What a giant idiot.

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5 hours ago, Onyx2 said:

The huge problem with scrying local election results are the reasons for voting are so varied. 

In my region, the Conservative paperwork focused on getting Brexit sorted. The Lib Dem flyer talked about how much money the Conservative councillors wasted on a public toilet in our town. How is it useful to bounce these two leaflets against each other when trying to decide who to vote for? 

Local elections should be that; a vote on local issues such as school support, roads, housing developments, environmental issues, whatever matters in your community. But many people - not incorrectly - use it to vote nationally. 

I don't think it's strictly pro-Remain. I interpret the results as a general 'please stop fucking about with Brexit, just sort it out either way' but I can't speak for local initiatives.

I particularly feel for SME businesses whom Conservatives often have support from, needing clarity for their future planning. 

A 17% turn out in my ward. 17%! Basildon Council is now split where it has been Tory for so long. Probably due to selling golf course land for £1 to a hotel chain, spending over £50k on door mats for their offices and continued tax increases for homes and businesses. We don’t even get streetlights after 1am.

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So, what's going to happen with these EU elections then? Is Farage's new party going to do well as much of the mainstream media seem to be shitting themselves about? Will "man of the people" Tommy Robinson see any kind of success? Aside from that I don't know who else is actually running, but those results will be what I'm watching for with a moderate amount of interest.

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I'll be voting Labour, because the MEP for London, Lucy Anderson, is the most hard-working and dedicated, and I don't feel she should pay for the general population's indifference to MEP elections or Labour's stance on Brexit. Regardless of what one thinks of the EU, she deserves to be in that seat, even if it's just for a few more months.

To be honest, the incompetence of both campaigns during the lead-up to the referendum was astounding already, but I'm really surprised that, with someone like this around, the Remain campaign didn't call her up.

https://theovertake.com/~meps/meps-the-best-and-the-worst/

 

Quote

 

Lucy Anderson

Plenary attendance: 93.1%

Number of report amendments: 3,225 (!)

Lucy Anderson, Labour MEP for London, is the best British MEP, based on The Overtake’s scoring system. While a couple of (mostly Labour) MEPs do have Anderson’s impressive plenary attendance of 93.1% since the Brexit vote beat, her work ethic appears unparalleled.

Anderson is vice chair of the Committee on the Internal Market and Consumer Protection, as well as a member of two others. Over the past three years, she has produced four reports and made an overwhelming 3,225 report amendments, putting most of her coworkers to shame.

In addition, she has submitted a respectable 32 written questions, done 26 speeches, worked as a shadow rapporteur on five opinions — facilitating compromise on legislative report proposals — and put forward a motion. Her recent activities include a debate on new rights for the sale of digital content and goods and a proposal regarding the prevention of terrorist content online.

We take it back, Nirj Deva. Lucy Anderson is the real-life Leslie Knope, and she gives us hope.

 

 

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The turnout will probably be low, but I suspect the new Brexit Party will do spectacularly well, with the main 3 parties probably about even with each other afterwards.

I still think it's likely a deal will go through Parliament before any of them take their seats anyway, so the whole thing is a spectacularly embarrassing and costly waste of time.  But that's what the magic Brexit shit wand has turned politics into for this decade.

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In as much as you can rely on polling at this stage/for this election, it looks like Brexit Party and Labour near the top, ChUK/UKIP/Greens in low single figures, and Conservatives and Lib Dems at some point in between, with Conservatives hoping to be closer to the top two and fearing being closer to the bottom lot. Polls have been all over the place though, mainly due to trying to big, quick effects of Tories collapsing and Brexit Party getting loads of publicity at their launch.

One thing to remember is that although it's a proportional representation election, there's a big hitch here. Pretty much everyone else in the EU does it nationally, so if you get 20 percent of the nationwide vote, you get roughly 20 percent of the seats. We do it by regions, so it hurts smaller parties generally, and those with spread-out support in particular.

For example, the Northeast only has three MEPs, so you need to be getting around a third of the vote to win one. That pretty much guarantees it will either be Labour and Brexit splitting them, and every other vote will be "wasted". Meanwhile the SNP won't get a single vote outside Scotland, but they'll almost certainly get two or three MEPs there.

In the majority of regions you need a good 15% to be sure of getting a seat. In fact if you got 10 percent in every region, you could very easily wind up with only one MEP rather than the 7 or 8 you'd get if it was literally proportional across the country.

The big fear among remainers is that nearly all the hardcore "leave means leave" vote will go to the Brexit Party, but the "second referendum/stop Brexit" will be split between Lib Dems, Green, ChUK (and to some extent Labour). That could mean you get many regions where those smaller parties all get too few votes indvidually to win seats, even though they have got a respectable total nationwide.

So whatever happens, everyone will be picking the "measure" that best helps them explain why they won. Could be who gets the most votes, who gets the most seats, who "wins" the most regions, or how many people vote for "leave" parties vs "remain" parties (and how you then class Labour and Conservative in that split.) Farage is already saying that if Brexit Party "win" then Britain has voted for a no-deal Brexit.

As for Tommy Robinson, he's standing as an independent as he's genuinely too fascist to stand for UKIP under its party rules. Depending on turnout he'll probably need at least 150,000 votes and likely 200,000+ votes to get in, which is a tough ask given he's really only going to get a personal vote as a lot of the hardcore Brexit supporters will go for Brexit Party or UKIP.

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Good insight @JNLister, thanks.

Maybe you'll know the answer to this, but how much would someone like Robinson be paying to actually run? Is there fees associated with this kind of thing?

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£5,000 deposit, which you get back if you get 2.5 percent of the vote. Rather unfairly, it's £5,000 for an independent, but also £5,000 to cover an entire party putting up a batch of candidates in a region.

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Then there's every chance that Robinson would see it as five grand well spent considering the vast amounts of mainstream media coverage he's had since announcing his candidacy. From the moment he announced the media have been all over him, providing him with the oxygen he needs, and I reckon that'll be the case until well after the results are tallied up.

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1 minute ago, The King Of Swing said:

I have long believed that Brexit somehow being revoked would be a dream come true for Farage. He's irrelevant when/if we actually leave the EU imo.

Well he has his seat at Question Time at least, Anna Sourbry is on as well tonight.

I saw one of those Brexit party adverts which began with a straight faced Farage saying how the people have been lied to. The brass neck of the cunt!

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