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Gus Mears

General Erection 2019

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1 hour ago, Chunk said:

I must've heard Corbyn give the party position on Brexit about 100 times. Even to the point that Johnson repeatedly used it against him - "how can you have a leader that won't pick a side" etc.

I'm not sure how he could've made it any clearer. It's was clear enough for all the leave voters that defected to the Tories. 

And what was the party stance? For Labour to negotiate yet another deal with the EU, then put that to the people for yet another vote? Like I said, clear as mud. Their moniker of "let the people decide" was nonsense. Decide on what? How long would it take them to re-negotiate another deal? They claim three months, but there was no guarantee there. Then they put the deal to yet another vote? How many votes, referendums, elections have we seen these past few years?

While the Labour Party announced their position, it simply wasn't clear enough. I said previously that they should have seized the initiative at the beginning. The public voted to leave the EU? Fine, take control of the leave narrative. Provide the voting public with assurances that they'll respect the initial vote, but look to negotiate a more sensible exit.

Labour didn't do that, and Corbyn didn't commit to an answer that the electorate could identify with. That's why he and the Labour Party lost, in my opinion.

Edited by David

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If Labour went all in with Brexit under a left narrative it would have been a hung parliament. My constituency was part of the red wall which went blue, but talking to people in the pub they didn't like Corbyn but would have voted Labour if Brexit Meant Brexit and they'd Get Brexit Done. Men in their 60s saying their dads are spinning in their grave as they've voted Tory. They should have taken a Lexit position. It wasn't as if Corbyn was a fan of the EU anyway. 

Edited by PowerButchi

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6 hours ago, neil said:

Except that I can actually control who gets to post on this forum, so see ya later

I called him a fucking Tory cunt as well so I should get some time off. Max is sound.

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6 hours ago, PowerButchi said:

If Labour went all in with Brexit under a left narrative it would have been a hung parliament. My constituency was part of the red wall which went blue, but talking to people in the pub they didn't like Corbyn but would have voted Labour if Brexit Meant Brexit and they'd Get Brexit Done. Men in their 60s saying their dads are spinning in their grave as they've voted Tory. They should have taken a Lexit position. It wasn't as if Corbyn was a fan of the EU anyway. 

You're probably right. People are constantly trying to map Remain & Leave to conventional Right & Left positions, and they're just not like-for-like. For all the talk of "SEND THEM BACK" knuckledragging racists, there are plenty of solid left-wing arguments for leaving the EU. There is no left-wing argument for leaving the EU under a Tory majority government. While my preference would have been for a second vote/referendum, a Labour-managed Brexit deal that prioritised workers' rights and EU citizens' rights in the UK would have likely been a strong, clear electoral policy.

It's probably the area where the gulf between the middle-class membership and working class voters is most glaringly apparent, and if I were to find any specific truth in criticisms of the party becoming too London-centric, it would be on thinking the Remain option was a stronger possibility than it was.

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6 hours ago, PowerButchi said:

If Labour went all in with Brexit under a left narrative it would have been a hung parliament. My constituency was part of the red wall which went blue, but talking to people in the pub they didn't like Corbyn but would have voted Labour if Brexit Meant Brexit and they'd Get Brexit Done. Men in their 60s saying their dads are spinning in their grave as they've voted Tory. They should have taken a Lexit position. It wasn't as if Corbyn was a fan of the EU anyway. 

Hypothetical discussion, then (because it's way less depressing than reality): Corbyn holds firm on soft brexit/honouring outcome of referendum. Red wall more or less holds and as you said, hung parliament. Lib dems pick up a few more seats in remainy areas. Both potential kingmakers in the SNP and Lib Dems oppose Brexit. Who forms a coalition with who, and what would the price be?

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I have severe doubts about this narrative that 'Labour would have won a hung Parliament if they had backed Brexit'. Assuming a 3% Con>Lab swing from what eventually happened you're still looking at a net loss of between 52 and 57 seats - between 20 and 25 remain seats, 6 Scottish seats and 26 marginal seats . 

Brexit was always going to be a tough nut to crack with Labour needing to please the remain majority of its popular vote and the leave minority that were key in terms of seat count. 

That is also ignoring how unpopular the leadership is/was, which was equally key to the result as Brexit was. 

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Assuming the election is still happening in the same circumstances with all the votes in Parliament, I don't think Labour backing leave would make that much difference. The Tories wouldn't just have said "Well, we agree on the big issue now, so let's spend our time debating the NHS."

We'd have had six weeks of Boris Johnson shouting "Real Brexit, Right Now" and claiming the Labour position was a big scam to dither and delay and then deliver a "fake Brexit" that didn't take back control, and that a vote for Labour risked a hung parliament where they'd sell everyone out and agree a second referendum anyway.

Plus if the Lib Dems had got wind of Labour adopting a Leave position, they would likely not have campaigned on the obviously flawed Revoke position. You'd probably have got a healthy chunk of Labour Remain supporters going to the Lib Dems and losing a bunch of seats, many of them to Conservatives sneaking through the middle under our joke of an electoral system.

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Interesting piece here on the "red wall" theory: https://thecritic.co.uk/the-myth-of-the-red-wall/

The gist is that it's too simplistic to treat all Labour/Northern seats the same and that about half of them are actually historic swing seats anyway, it's just that the Tories haven't actually had a big win nationally since 1987 so they haven't swung all the way in that period. There's good reason to think that even if Labour were to claw back a bit of the gap nationally they'd be recoverable.

It's the other half that's the big problem, mainly former mining or "single industry" towns that have lost their industry and broken the historic affinity for Labour. A lot of them have gradually been shifting towards the Tories since the early 2000s but this was the year a wave of them finally moved over and they may be harder to reliably win back.

 

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6 hours ago, Devon Malcolm said:

I called him a fucking Tory cunt as well so I should get some time off. Max is sound.

Lucky I only have 😍for you. He'll be back. But seriously, I'm interested in this thread actually containing discussion, so one line insult posts can go elsewhere as they add nothing to what has otherwise been a great thread.

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On 12/18/2019 at 9:13 AM, RedRooster said:

I’m still absolutely baffled that the Tories managed to gain such a large majority. What possesses people to vote against their own interests in such numbers?

’Boris is a liar and I can’t trust anything he says...but I DO like what he says...’

It’s bizarre and utterly deflating. Almost one week has gone since the general election and I’m still struggling to process what has happened, and what it actually means.

Homer Simpson, somewhere in England, December 2019...

"...I don't approve of their NHS killing policy, but I do approve of their EU membership killing policy!"

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Gawd damn double post! Sorry.

Edited by PJ Power

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I wonder how it applies to Coventry seeing how for the first half of the year and the referendum our home ground was in a different city than it is now. It’s a Labour town but I thought it voted leave. 

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That Liverpool one can't be right, surely, the Scousers didn't vote to leave.

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