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Brexit


Devon Malcolm

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6 minutes ago, MPDTT said:

Your still pushing this MPDTT is a Tory Cunt thing....I'll save you the time of searching through old posts...I was a Tory member until 2016, quit my membership post referendum and supported the Lib Dems ever since. Voted for them at the last election, although Steve Reed won the seat (Labour). Remainer over everything.....

I can never see myself going back, what's left is just rotten.

Also I'm a 2nd generation immigrant and dual national!

 

WELCOME BACK SPURSRIOT!!! COYS 

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I could see the Lib Dems putting a serious dent in the traditional conservative vote, if they push themselves as an alternative to alienated members/supporters.

Problem with that though is that they risk pushing away their own traditional support, after trying to rebuild after the coalition years.

At least for now the opposition parties are somewhat united. Though how long that will last is anyone's guess.

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Dominic Raab just gave the game away in parliament (I'm paraphrasing)...

"There are contradictory laws & vagaries in the no-no deal act. On many occasions a government has acted on legal advice which subsequently was found to be incorrect in judicial review"

 

The government's legal advice would come from... Geoffrey Cox (tory cunt)

He would say xyz reason is why you can still have no deal

It will happen

Judicial review will overrule... but by then it will be done

Government acted on legal advice & therefore are in the clear

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So Johnson closing Parliament has been declared illegal in a Scottish Court AND the Government released some of "Yellow Hammer" documents, which are almost unchanged from the leaked ones that were dismissed as "old and out of date". They flat out refused to comply with the order to release emails, texts, related to the closure of Parliament.

I don't expect this to change anything  They are already appealing the court decision and they are trying to reframe Yellow hammer as a "possible worst case scenario" when even the people who worked on it have said it's the "base scenario". I'm not convinced the EU will agree to another extension either.

What I am wondering is: How the fuck does Johnson survive No Deal? The Opposition might not be able to stop it but they have made it clear that Johnson not only wants it to happen, but is fully aware of the consequences of it. He's gone to extraordinary lengths to stop it being blocked, while slashing the amount of people who are supposed to be negotiating with the EU.

So how does he survive? He might win an early election, before the damage really kicks in, but there's no way that he'll be able to last the term. Even other Tories will see him as an easy scapegoat. Is he really hoping everybody will blame the EU? Or is he just planning to fuck off once the damage is done.

Fuck, does he even have a plan?.

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His plan is to paint it as the people versus parliament, with him as the people's champion (don't bother with the obvious).  He went to parliament to deliver what the public instructed it to do but they wouldn't in spite of his best efforts.  So vote for him so he can get a majority and get rid of parliamentary elite in the Westminster bubble who are stopping democracy.

Of course, it's bollocks, but his audience will lap it up.  There was a guy on Politics Live today saying how leavers have the mindset that anything that gets in the way of what they thought would happen is undemocratic, treasonous and an affront to decency.  Even if something is illegal or impossible, they still see it as being confrontational to their position.  You know the sort, the ones who demanded we have our parliamentary sovereignty, but screamed "NOT LIKE THAT" when they saw what it actually looked like.

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6 minutes ago, unfitfinlay said:

So how does he survive?

Because enough people aren't interested in what's really happening. Facts and critical analysis don't come into it. They don't get the information on what's been happening because they only rely on sources which don't report it and which instead play to the prejudices of their readers and above all push for what they want to happen. If they find out about a legal verdict, it's presented to them as saboteur judges acting as their enemies. Or, in this case, biased Scottish judges, not like our good English judges (except for those who reach the wrong conclusion).

When an election comes, some of these people will vote in enough numbers that the Conservative party, in spite of everything we know and how abominably they've behaved, will win a large number of seats. I suspect that they'll even return the largest number of seats, even if not a majority overall, followed by declarations that 'the people' have thus declared that they want a no-deal Brexit. Were the question of Brexit to be asked in an alternative way, say, a manner in which the result were announced as a number of votes for a position rather than seats won, the answer would be clearly different. And that's why they're trying so hard to goad the Opposition into a GE. I imagine they've got it backed up twice too: if there isn't a GE, which there won't be, then they'll get their no-deal Brexit, will be able to portray themselves as the party of the people, and then will be in a strong position for a GE down the line.

I think I'm pretty much done with the whole thing. Brexit won't be terribly bad for me personally, I think. Our jobs are safe. We can absorb the rising prices without having to tighten our belts. Houses are overpriced anyway and I'm not against them crashing (it's better for people who aren't yet on the ladder); the supposed drop of one third will take us back to where we started. That's not the end of the world, even though we were hoping to sell and move abroad in about four years' time. Probably the worst way in which we'll be hit personally is longer queues in airports, a trivial affair in the grand scheme of things. Meanwhile, I see poor cousins and people who grew up near me, the typical poorly educated and struggling to make ends meet type, still bleating on about how they want their precious WTO Brexit, even though they and people like them are the ones who will be worst hit, whilst the people they get their information from make a killing on shorting the pound and escaping the new tax regulations. At some point you've got to say 'fuck it'; let them reap the consequences of what they're so fervently pushing for. I think the old thinking about voting being a civic duty should be rephrased into something like 'it's your civic duty to be informed and vote'. I'd feel bad for the people hard hit who are innocent of unleashing all this but what can you do when their friends and neighbours are powering it?

Fuck me, this is a depressing post.

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11 hours ago, Ronnie said:

if there isn't a GE, which there won't be, then they'll get their no-deal Brexit, will be able to portray themselves as the party of the people, and then will be in a strong position for a GE down the line.

I think it depends on how quickly and how many people die because they can't get vital medicines. Johnson basically needs a GE on D1ND. The base scenario yellowhammer doc says the worst bit will be the first few months. 

I don't believe there's any kind of master plan with Johnson/Cummings. Their rich mates have already staked their bet of billions of pounds that requires the UK to leave with no deal on Oct 31 to come in. Once their friends have collected the money, that's that. They'll just be making shit up as they go along.

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Despite the opportunity for the opposition to take advantage from any fallout of no deal, I'm still firmly of the belief that we must avoid or at least mitigate the impact of Brexit. There's really no point in being in politics if you don't believe in the betterment of society (regardless of perspective). The angle of 'let Boris wreck everything and we'll take advantage' is pointless for me. That's quite literally minimizing politics to a game - trouble is, we're playing with peoples lives.

I'm not one of those people that believes that domestic policy can reverse the impact of Brexit either. We live in a globalised world where the real megapowers are corporations whose influence transcends borders. Splitting from political unions with other countries is the total reverse of what we should be doing. It's really a macro version of labour unions - countries with high levels of unionisation and collective bargaining generally have better, more equal living standards than those that don't. We need to stand together to improve things. 

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16 hours ago, AVM said:

Despite the opportunity for the opposition to take advantage from any fallout of no deal, I'm still firmly of the belief that we must avoid or at least mitigate the impact of Brexit. There's really no point in being in politics if you don't believe in the betterment of society (regardless of perspective). The angle of 'let Boris wreck everything and we'll take advantage' is pointless for me. That's quite literally minimizing politics to a game - trouble is, we're playing with peoples lives.

I'm not one of those people that believes that domestic policy can reverse the impact of Brexit either. We live in a globalised world where the real megapowers are corporations whose influence transcends borders. Splitting from political unions with other countries is the total reverse of what we should be doing. It's really a macro version of labour unions - countries with high levels of unionisation and collective bargaining generally have better, more equal living standards than those that don't. We need to stand together to improve things. 

Unions worked in the 70s. Now it's vehemently anti-worker. The populace has redirected their concerns from wages to class warfare. The union culture has changed. If Brexiters thought they had a voice in unions we would still be in the EU.

What you're talking about is solidarity among a division of a divided populace. Which will ultimately lead those on the left and right to a collusion course never before seen in this country. The country is rotting, and has been for 50 years. I don't see a political solution. I was under the impression Brexiters were still on board with the liberal democracy project, now, not so much. 

The idea that various interest groups can resolve their problems in a liberal democracy have proved to be fallacious. Democracies work in homogeneous societies, this was worked out thousands of years ago in ancient Greece.

Not to doomsday too much, but there is going to be an explosion in this country this century. Too many interest groups involved for it not to. Those in the commons have no idea. 

In any event Brexit isn't going to happen. 

 

edit: I'm sure I'll get some pushback from BomberPat for this, but whatever. I've heard his arguments, and they're all flip-floppy. No mental gymnastics is going to change the fact that Brexit SHOULD happen, and if it doesn't. Well, strap me to a DeLorean and transport me back to monarchical Britain, because if Brexit isn't delivered we're going to see civil war.

Edited by Richard
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On 9/12/2019 at 8:44 PM, Keith Houchen said:

His plan is to paint it as the people versus parliament, with him as the people's champion (don't bother with the obvious).  He went to parliament to deliver what the public instructed it to do but they wouldn't in spite of his best efforts.  So vote for him so he can get a majority and get rid of parliamentary elite in the Westminster bubble who are stopping democracy.

Of course, it's bollocks, but his audience will lap it up.  There was a guy on Politics Live today saying how leavers have the mindset that anything that gets in the way of what they thought would happen is undemocratic, treasonous and an affront to decency.  Even if something is illegal or impossible, they still see it as being confrontational to their position.  You know the sort, the ones who demanded we have our parliamentary sovereignty, but screamed "NOT LIKE THAT" when they saw what it actually looked like.

On 9/12/2019 at 8:45 PM, Ronnie said:

Because enough people aren't interested in what's really happening. Facts and critical analysis don't come into it. They don't get the information on what's been happening because they only rely on sources which don't report it and which instead play to the prejudices of their readers and above all push for what they want to happen. If they find out about a legal verdict, it's presented to them as saboteur judges acting as their enemies. Or, in this case, biased Scottish judges, not like our good English judges (except for those who reach the wrong conclusion).

When an election comes, some of these people will vote in enough numbers that the Conservative party, in spite of everything we know and how abominably they've behaved, will win a large number of seats. I suspect that they'll even return the largest number of seats, even if not a majority overall, followed by declarations that 'the people' have thus declared that they want a no-deal Brexit. Were the question of Brexit to be asked in an alternative way, say, a manner in which the result were announced as a number of votes for a position rather than seats won, the answer would be clearly different. And that's why they're trying so hard to goad the Opposition into a GE. I imagine they've got it backed up twice too: if there isn't a GE, which there won't be, then they'll get their no-deal Brexit, will be able to portray themselves as the party of the people, and then will be in a strong position for a GE down the line.

Replying to you both here.

See that sort of works in the short term. I was more talking about the long term. If No Deal is as bad as Yellow Hammer suggests then we're looking at some pretty horrific times ahead of us.

I just don't see how Johnson can come out of it with his political career intact. If he wins the next election (and I agree that it's likely) then he's going to be the one responsible for dealing with the return of violence in Northern Ireland, the collapse of the pound and shortages of food and medicine. You can't really solve those by bluffing and blustering. It's not like he can go crawling back to the EU either, because that would be admitting he fucked up. Plus, a Post-Brexit trade deal will take years.

Unless he uses the chaos as an excuse to go all Dictator-y, which might actually be his plan -There's references to Martial Law in the leaked Yellow Hammer documents, and May's manifesto had a frightening pledge to, essentially, ban the free press - then I don't see how he gets out of it.

21 hours ago, Richard said:

edit: I'm sure I'll get some pushback from BomberPat for this, but whatever. I've heard his arguments, and they're all flip-floppy. No mental gymnastics is going to change the fact that Brexit SHOULD happen, and if it doesn't. Well, strap me to a DeLorean and transport me back to monarchical Britain, because if Brexit isn't delivered we're going to see civil war.

Disagree on both points. At least sort of.

I agree that Brexit should happen. But only the version that was promised in 2016. You know, the one that promised us ALL the benefits of EU membership, including one-sided free movement (for us, not for them) and free trade WITHOUT contributing to the EU's budget.

Leaving for the sake of leaving though, regardless of the damage it causes? That's just fucking stupid.

I'd also say that we're more likely to see Civil War if Brexit happens, particularly No Deal. Johnson is building a House of Cards and claiming it's made of concrete. It's going to collapse at some point very soon and all his lies will be exposed. He can dismiss predictions as "Project Fear" but not events that are actually happening.

As for the alternative? I don't think we've got much to worry about from the Pro-Brexit lot. There's a lot who are passionate about it on social media but very few who care enough to do anything about it. Has there even been any kind of Pro Brexit event that hasn't been a fucking embarrassment numbers-wise? Remember Farage's march where even he said "fuck this?" The idea that they'll all suddenly turn to terrorism seems a bit ridiculous, even for me.

Plus most of the problems blamed on the EU have actually been caused by our own, shitty, Governments. If we remain, get the Tories to fuck, and begin repairing all the damage that they've done since 2010 then nobody will really give a fuck in a few years. That won't happen when Johnson's lies lead to people dying.

Edited by unfitfinlay
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