Brexit

[Loki]

5 hours ago, BomberPat said:

There's a Stewart Lee interview I can't find at the moment, where he talks about having been at Oxford with a lot of Tory politician types, and how the entire political system for them was just an extension of the school debating society, just a game that they all played together, and never stopped. 

 

I completely agree with this.  I went to elite schools from the age of 13, and went on to Oxford so I spent my teenage years and early 20s with this set of people, and am still friends with a few of them.

What you get from that background is a fantastic education - so Boris is highly literate, well read, capable of thinking on your feet etc.  But it's also entirely possible to go from School to Uni to journalism to politics without ever leaving school, if you see what I mean.  Always surrounded by the same people, always with the same privileged access to people in power, always a job when you need it.  You never have to actually think for yourself, and you never have to experience real life.

I have a few friends in politics, including in the House.  It's all a game to them.  One of my oldest friends took me round after he was elected, and we remarked how much the place just LOOKED like our old school, or an Oxford college.  The same wood panelling, same carpets, same porters and staff at your beck and call, same cliques, same smell even.  As I said to them " what a feelgood story - if a white, middle class Oxford graduate like yourself can get here, ANYONE can."

They have aspirations to do some good, don't get me wrong.  But it's the exercise of power that really fascinates them.  Getting it, keeping it, using it.

[HarmonicGenerator]

12 hours ago, Carbomb said:

Not just that - out of Britain's 54 PMs, 40 of them went to Oxbridge, 27 going to Oxford.

Poor showing by Cambridge here. You don’t hear that mentioned on Boat Race day.

[The King Of Swing]

Little Tommy got nine months.

Apparently he'll only do about ten weeks but I'll take it.

Edited July 11, 2019 by The King Of Swing

[BomberPat]

On 7/10/2019 at 8:38 PM, Loki said:

 

What you get from that background is a fantastic education - so Boris is highly literate, well read, capable of thinking on your feet etc.  But it's also entirely possible to go from School to Uni to journalism to politics without ever leaving school, if you see what I mean.  Always surrounded by the same people, always with the same privileged access to people in power, always a job when you need it.  You never have to actually think for yourself, and you never have to experience real life.

I have a few friends in politics, including in the House.  It's all a game to them.  One of my oldest friends took me round after he was elected, and we remarked how much the place just LOOKED like our old school, or an Oxford college.  The same wood panelling, same carpets, same porters and staff at your beck and call, same cliques, same smell even.  As I said to them " what a feelgood story - if a white, middle class Oxford graduate like yourself can get here, ANYONE can."

There was a bit in the latest Popbitch about how Gove and Hunt were both seeing the same woman when they were at Oxford, she settled down with someone else, and named them godfathers of her twins (one each!). The whole thing is just extraordinarily incestuous.

I've been at a wedding for a friend who went to a private school, and someone asked me, "what house were you in?". I was 30 years old, and talking to someone who couldn't conceive of a social circle defined by anything other than school.

As for Corbyn as an example of someone "book-smart" but not savvy - he left school with approximately fuck all, didn't he? And still managed to become an MP and keep his seat for 30 years. Not bad going.

[David]

35 minutes ago, BomberPat said:

As for Corbyn as an example of someone "book-smart" but not savvy - he left school with approximately fuck all, didn't he? And still managed to become an MP and keep his seat for 30 years. Not bad going.

He is intelligent though, isn't he? He may have left school with the bare minimum, but we're not talking about a guy who came from a poor background and who left school to sling bricks on the local site, are we? I don't think he was ever found waiting on the doors to his local Shropshire job centre to open before heading back to Yew Tree Manor.

Whilst not on the level of a Boris or Cameron, his parents had some dough and he was able to leave school and then embark on travels through Latin America doing student protests and whatnot, and he also worked for a bit as a geography teacher I think.

Again, there's a difference between the likes of Corbyn, who is undoubtedly an intelligent fellow, and the likes of Boris, who's not an idiot by any stretch, but who's more savvy with a healthy dollop of sociopathic behaviour about him.

And don't misunderstand me, if given the choice I'd rather we had Corbyn leading the country than any of the other candidates, but the original point I was making was that the very lack of sociopathic tendencies is what sees the left, for the most part, fail in politics. Being an intelligent, stand-up character and wanting to do what's right isn't what gets you the win in politics, it's being a savvy networker who forms alliances in the right places and who is able to negotiate the minefield.

[hallicks]

I'm still not sure about this idea of Corb getting pally with Mail and Telegraph journos and them suddenly being on board with renationalising the trains. Even if he was best mates with 90% of them, he'd still have gotten 4 years of relentless character assassination. Your Rupes, your Rothermeres, your Desmonds, they won't stand for any kind of progressive change. 

[David]

23 hours ago, hallicks said:

I'm still not sure about this idea of Corb getting pally with Mail and Telegraph journos and them suddenly being on board with renationalising the trains.

No one said they would do. He could get pally with the people who write the Morning Star I guess, but I'm not sure about the influence of that particular publication.

[David]

It seems that the fella who was played by Benedict Cumberbatch in Channel 4’s Brexit: The Uncivil War is a favourite to become Boris' senior advisor. That would be a controversial appointment.

[Dead Mike]

16 minutes ago, David said:

It seems that the fella who was played by Benedict Cumberbatch in Channel 4’s Brexit: The Uncivil War is a favourite to become Boris' senior advisor. That would be a controversial appointment.

Only if he's held to account over it. Hiring someone who's already been found to have been complicit in breaking electoral laws & been held in contempt of parliament should be an own goal by Johnson. We'll see if the opposition parties make any noise about it? I'm guessing they won't, why start now?

[David]

Or they will, but they'll be drowned out by the media narrative that Boris has hired "the guy from the Channel 4 film who was played by Benedict Cumberbatch."

It probably doesn't help that the film itself kind of portrays him as some sort of anti-establishment loose cannon/political genius type who "masterminded" the whole thing.

EDIT: In fact, it looms like it's a done deal. I assumed it was still to be decided.

[Keith Houchen]

Haven't watched it yet, but The Great Hack is on Netflix today.  It's about Cambridge Analytica and their role in elections, and how data is more valuable than oil.  Carole Cadwalladr is featured.  She is the journo who exposed it and Aaron Banks (Farage's funder) had threatened to sue.  Quite funny how he and others have been at Cadwalladr for ages and now seemed totally rattled that she hasn't gone away.

[Dead Mike]

After Johnson puts together a cabinet of the most hard-line Brexiters imaginable, to cheers from the hard-right it's all eyes on the opposition. What will their next move be? John McDonnell goes on TV to tell Robert Peston that Labour won't definitely back remain if there's another GE. You couldn't make it up!

I'm at the point now where I'm convinced the current Labour leadership don't actually want to win, they can't. They've constantly ignored their membership, the mood from their voter base & are seemingly just in an echo chamber of idiots still basking in the glory of not winning the last election. They'd rather be in permanent opposition but 'ideologically pure' than actually get rid of the fucking Tories. When you've got Guido fucking Fawkes' wet dream line-up opposite you and the threat of a Brexit Party/Tory coalition is very real, and Labour aren't directly opposing them what's the point? When Labour aren't sticking up for British workers what's their purpose? As a paid up party member this is grim as fuck, it's not even 9am & I'm livid.

 

[Loki]

I don't get what they're doing either, but I'm so fucking tired of this Labour civil war.  I thought Corbyn was a breath of fresh air when he became leader, and to some extent I think he's been good in injecting genuine socialism back into the Labour movement, but he's also a terrible, terrible leader.  Divisive, authoritarian, incapable of making a decision.  He's made the Labour party the weakest opposition party I can ever remember, at a time when we desperately need a strong one.

I was musing the other day - imagine what Britain might be like now had Ed Miliband won the 2015 General Election.  He was a proper left-wing Labour guy as well, although not to the extent of Corbyn.  Imagine - no referendum, no chaos, we'd be strong on the international stage, speaking out on Saudi Arabia and Trump, continuing to shape Europe to our own needs...

I didn't vote for him but I respected him and he'd have made a good PM.  I can't say that about Corbyn.  He will lose an election to Boris just as he lost to May.  Keep some of his policies but get rid of him, for God's sake.  For all their sins, at least the Tory party understands that you have to be IN power to make a difference.  Corbyn has spent so long on the outside, that's the only place he's comfortable.

[Dead Mike]

Pretty much echoing my sentiments. James O Brien described the current situation as 'the 'footballisation' of politics' which I thought was pretty much spot on. Whereas you've got a section of the electorate who have always been politically engaged you've also got large numbers of people who have 'picked a side' & are just wanting to rally against the 'others'. Whether it's Tommy Robinson supporting Brexiters calling anyone they don't agree with 'Traitors' or Momentum cretins calling other Labour members 'Red Tories' it's the exact same thing & neither side has the self awareness to recognise they're different cheeks of the same arse. Completely devoid of any pragmatism, nuance or flexibility.

The main difference is that when it comes to crunch most Tory voters will still vote Tory, there might be enough hard-liners who'd jump to UKIP/Brexit party but it's mainly a protest vote. The left will continue to eat itself as people would rather vote for a minority party like the Greens or 'spoil their ballot' so they can preach to friends about how principled they are as this takes precedent to them over actually making achievable change. It's 6th form politics at it's worst & as you rightly say, we're at a time when a 'progressive alliance' is desperately needed.

The Lib Dems are sweeping up votes from former Labour voters sick of Labour's Brexit policy & moderate Tories who aren't happy to trash the economy in pursuit of Brexit. They've said they wont go into coalition with a Corbyn led Labour as he's a staunch Brexiter. As I said previously, Labour's last manifesto was spot on, they don't need to change much in there at all. It just needs to be presented by someone capable who isn't completely toxic to the vast majority.

Edited July 25, 2019 by Dead Mike

[Dead Mike]

Trying to get some thread integrity back after the Cunty Tory thread got derailed. For those (understandably) confused by this weeks parliamentary shenanigans this is a decent summary to bring you up to speed......

 

It's hard to imagine where he goes from here. Boris Johnson had clearly wanted an election. You knew he wanted it from the first time he said he definitely wouldn't hold one. Everything he'd done since the Tory leadership contest seemed to corroborate that, from testing Facebook ads, to finessing attack lines, to announcing policy measures on policing and education.

Most of the events during the summer seemed to fall in line with that strategy. He needed an excuse and he was fairly certain some development in parliament would provide him with one. But tonight he finally pulled the trigger and nothing came out.

He needed a two-thirds majority under the Fixed-terms-Parliament-Act. But Labour rejected the request. In the end the vote came in at 298 to 56, with the opposition party abstaining.

He lashed out as best he could. "I can only speculate about the reasons for his hesitation," Johnson said of Jeremy Corbyn. "The obvious reason is that he doesn't think he will win."

But in truth, he seemed completely stuck. What could he do now? He has no majority. It left with Phillip Lee to walk across the floor of the House yesterday, and then bottomed out into the centre of the earth when the prime minister withdrew the whip from the 21 Tory MPs who rebelled against him in the emergency debate which followed.

The ensuing legislation shuttled through its stages in the Commons today. Brexit-supporting peers will try to kill it in the Lords, but the chances are pretty good that it can be secured by the end of the week or the start of the next.

It would force the prime minister to extend Article 50 by October 19th if he doesn't get a deal. Johnson has promised he would never do that. But what avenue does he have if he cannot fight an election before then? To break the law? To resign? Neither option can seem particularly attractive.

Politics now becomes an extremely delicate game of strategy, conducted to impossibly high stakes. Labour has spotted the trap and does not want to fall into it. But it also knows that it will be vulnerable to the argument that it is frightened of going to the country. How long can it withstand?

If it goes too quickly, it hands Johnson exactly the thing he wants: to go for an election while he still has a bounce, with a pre-prepared parliament-versus-the-people message, while being sufficiently mercurial on no-deal that he can neutralise the threat from the Brexit party.

Allowing the vote to happen before late October would also fail to prevent no-deal, because a new Johnson administration would be in place in time to deliver it.

"The offer an election today is like the offer of an apple to Snow White from the wicked queen," Corbyn concluded. "What he is offering is not an apple, or even an election, but the poison of no-deal. Let this bill pass and gain Royal Assent, then we will back an election."

On the face of it, this seemed ruinous. The bill will probably get Royal Assent in the next few days. If Corbyn then immediately accepted one of Johnson's requests for an election, it would take place before late October. A Johnson majority, if he got one, could then be used to repeal the rebel legislation and secure no-deal.

But there was a little more wriggle room in there than that. Saying he would "back" an election is not the same as saying he would activate it. Could he block an election during the tiny gap between Royal Assent and prorogation starting? He'd then be clear for the next five weeks, with Johnson's own plan to silence parliament now working against him. 

Or perhaps a no-confidence vote could be used. This would start a 14-day period in which to try and form a government, either through himself as prime minister or someone like Harriet Harman. They could then extend Article 50 and then hold an election. And importantly the process would kill more time.

There is space to work with in Corbyn's statement. It's still not clear which way he'll go. And there's a sustained effort from within the Labour party to stop him falling into Johnson's trap.

What happens now will all be about pressure. If Corbyn feels it is building against him and the public see him as cowardly, he'll pull the trigger. If it starts to feel like politicians are playing clever-clever games over the heads of the electorate, he'll pull the trigger.

But that goes both ways. This week showed just how badly Johnson could be made to squirm in a trap made of his own misjudged strategy. He looked increasingly like he was being damaged and weakened. If that pressure seems to be having a serious effect, it will hold Corbyn back.

Either way, we'll probably know how it pans out by early next week. The result could decide which way the Brexit story finally ends.

Ian Dunt is editor of Politics.co.uk and the author of Brexit: What The Hell Happens Now?