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It's today then ... (Trump thread)


mikehoncho

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47 minutes ago, David said:

He's still droned less innocent people to death than Obama did, that's got to count for something surely?

Doubled the number of air strikes in Somalia and tripled them in Yemen within his first year (more strikes in Yemen in 2017 than in the previous four years combined), scaled air strikes in Afghanistan back up to 2009-12 levels, increased use of air strikes and drones in Pakistan compared to 2016 levels, all with fewer checks and balances than any engagement during Obama's presidency, and with less transparency, removed the need for the White House to sign off on any strikes ordered, significantly increased the number of civilian casualties as a result of US strikes in Afghanistan. 

And so on. 

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49 minutes ago, BomberPat said:

Doubled the number of air strikes in Somalia and tripled them in Yemen within his first year (more strikes in Yemen in 2017 than in the previous four years combined), scaled air strikes in Afghanistan back up to 2009-12 levels, increased use of air strikes and drones in Pakistan compared to 2016 levels, all with fewer checks and balances than any engagement during Obama's presidency, and with less transparency, removed the need for the White House to sign off on any strikes ordered, significantly increased the number of civilian casualties as a result of US strikes in Afghanistan. 

And so on. 

Yeah, I said innocent people. I'm sure I've read in a few places that the CIA are getting better at hitting their actual targets than they used to be. That could be down to increased technological advancement or whatever, but still.

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It seems so simple but I actually learn more from TV shows such as The Daily Show, Last Week Tonight, some Colbert than I do reading about US politics. I've got a book somewhere that explains it in very simple terms, but I've lost it. When I dig it out, I'll post the title as it's really bloody good.

The Pod Save America podcast is very decent as well. It's so bloody complex!!!

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21 minutes ago, Keith Houchen said:

For US politics, and loads more, https://fivethirtyeight.com is my go to site.  It analyses stats and data and puts it into terms that a schmuck like me can get my head around.

They literally had to kill their voter modeling machine in the dead of night, because it was giving the snowflakes heart palpitations.

@Sphinx — I'd recommend Gateway Pundit, and following the wise words of @mitchellvii on the Twitter — smart analysis, v. sane.

Edited by Sergio Mendacious
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2 hours ago, Sphinx said:

This might be a good place to ask.

This mid-term elections have made me realise I could do with a bit of clueing up on politics. What are some good political resources? Websites, podcasts, or books you'd recommend.

https://www.politico.com/ is top drawer for non-paywall coverage. 

It's quite difficult to understand a lot of the intricacies of US politics without understanding the Constitution, particularly with regards to separation of powers, as it explains why things like why judiciary appointment and the Democrats winning the House are important in some ways, but not others. Wikipedia is decent for an overview of most of it to be honest: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Separation_of_powers_under_the_United_States_Constitution 

Just to briefly stick my oar in to 'Trump has killed more/less innocents with drones than Obama', that's such a poor way of evaluating anything as it completely ignores context - what legacy wars were going on, the geopolitical situation that required US involvement (the fact that IS was significantly stronger in Obama's presidency than when Trump was elected being one), ability to execute strategic goals with technology vs using ground troops (and the political expediency of doing so) and a load more. FDR killed far more innocent people through his prosecution of WW2 than Andrew Jackson ever did, but it means absolutely nothing because it ignores context and doesn't in any way illustrate the relative qualities or of either man or their inclination towards needless slaughter.

Anyway, I had a fun time staying up until 4AM watching mid-term coverage and it ended pretty much as expected. Few thoughts:

I still think on balance that Trump will be reelected in 2020 for a number of reasons. Firstly, I still  believe that elections are most usually won on economics and he's managed to turbocharge the economy so there is a feel good factor, even though Democrats making inroads this year shows how toxic Trump is for certain sections of America. The fact that the economy will some point explode is irrelevant if it happens after November 2020, which I think it will. 

Additionally, I don't think there wasn't enough evidence of Democrats winning big in the states their candidate will need to take in order to have en Electoral College winning coalition. Republicans are doing better than before, if anything, in Florida and enough of the rust belt states didn't move a lot. The various governorship contests Democrats won will help longer term in striking down some of the more egregious gerrymandering going on presently.

I still hate most of the more likely candidates in a nationwide contest. Sanders and Biden are 1,000 years old. The former I still don't feel is palatable nationally (and please don't hang your hat on 'this one poll said he'd beat Trump in 2016', because there were significant flaws with its methodology) and Biden stinks of the prior 'liberal elite' administration. Warren is politically Sanders-lite and I struggle to see her winning the rust belt. People like Corey Booker and Kamala Harris are good, but have no national profile (that might even be advantageous to be fair) and then you're left with the likes of Oprah and (to a lesser extent) Blomberg- by which point let's just give up on the whole election thing and just run it like that recent C4 social media show. 

Trump is also an incumbent president and that gives you an enormous locked in boost in media profile, (often) funding and not having to dive around like a slippery eel on issues during a primary campaign (not that this hurt him, but he is fundamentally different). 

On the plus side, Texas is going to go blue in the next few electoral cycles I reckon, despite Beto's loss. At the very least, Democrats controlling the house enables gridlock and investigations, though spending the next two years subpoenaing everything around the Big Orange Baby isn't a good electoral tactic.

The Senate results were about as expected, though not exactly positive. It was a generationally terrible Senate map for the Democrats, but it makes the composition of the Senate more full of pro-Trump Republicans and makes judicial appointments easier. 

Christ, the Dems feel like they need new blood though. Pelosi is ancient, Steny Hoyer is even older, the two main left firebrands have a combined age of 133. Biden seems to be back to being voice of the working class centre and he's pushing 80. It's turned into political WrestleMania where they keep bringing back the same faces. They desperately need to try and better promote some of the quality newer faces they have and just on messaging, it still feels like the party of 'not Trump'. Having worked in negative political campaigns like that in the past, it's a fucking terrible message to win over swing voters.    

Anyway, two years is a long time and this will almost all be certainly proved totally wrong. It's always dangerous to hold too much stock in midterms anyway as a bell weather for the next full slate. 

 

Edited by Gus Mears
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For me, the only way to get rid of Trump any time soon is to find from somewhere a candidate who is essentially Trump-lite. It has to be someone who can relate to those pesky sorts who work in factories and on farms, but at the same time not be a complete lunatic.

It surely makes sense that in order to win, the opposition will likely have to convince some of those who voted for Trump to jump sides, right? Well, I don't see them doing that for anyone who is the exact opposite of the Donald. 

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