The General Politics Thread v2.0 (AKA the "Labour are Cunts" thread)

[SuperBacon]

17 minutes ago, hallicks said:

WHY IS HE DOING THIS

He's not. I don't like Keir Starmer but the article is about how the Blue Labour group are saying why he should do adopt this policy change, not that he has adopted this.

Now I'm not saying it's not going to happen, or that he hasn't been influenced by that group already, or that Starmer can be trusted not to do this, but I feel its important to distinguish between "shoulds" and "haves" 

And just so we're clear, I cannot stand the bloke and am not defending his shitshow so far.

[hallicks]

4 minutes ago, SuperBacon said:

He's not. I don't like Keir Starmer but the article is about how the Blue Labour group are saying why he should do adopt this policy change, not that he has adopted this.

Now I'm not saying it's not going to happen, or that he hasn't been influenced by that group already, or that Starmer can be trusted not to do this, but I feel its important to distinguish between "shoulds" and "haves" 

And just so we're clear, I cannot stand the bloke and am not defending his shitshow so far.

Fair enough. I think articles like this are a bit of a “testing the water” type situation though. It may not come directly from Starmer but you can bet your bottom dollar McSweeney is desperate to push in this direction. 

[CTXRussomark]

5 minutes ago, hallicks said:

Fair enough. I think articles like this are a bit of a “testing the water” type situation though. It may not come directly from Starmer but you can bet your bottom dollar McSweeney is desperate to push in this direction. 

Articles like this are designed to get the exact reaction you had - outrage aimed at Starmer and the government when it's not even something they've done.  How many other people read that headline but don't have SuperBacon around to point out the actual details?  It's how you get so many people regurgitating false information under the guide of "well I read a report that said....".

Disclaimer - Starmer is still definitely a cunt though

[Chili]

I think I said it before but and yes it's me doom predicting mixed in with a bit of hopeless depression at the moment, but Reform are winning aren't they. It's just going to happen because in my head seeing the way the wind blows and how extremely stupid Starmer seems to be hopelessly courting the voters, it'll happen. The Tories feel like they're in a down cycle for a generation. In my head I just see those cunts winning because the stupid country just wants something different because they think they're in charge and what they think Reform will do, so the consequences don't matter, not will they take any blame for it when they fuck themselves.

I really hope I'm permanently in France by then.

[Just Some Guy]

There was a period during the May premiership where the polls showed UKIP winning the next GE in a landslide.

The polls changed with a change of Tory leader.

Many events will happen between now and polling day which will change things again.

On top of which, if Reform completely bungle things or implode now they have the levers of power, this will play negatively with the electorate.

I'm worried too @Chili but I don't think the situation is hopeless just yet.

[Devon Malcolm]

33 minutes ago, Just Some Guy said:

I'm worried too @Chili but I don't think the situation is hopeless just yet.

The situation is already hopeless, whether Reform get in or not, when the supposed left-wing government is introducing policies that the previous right-wing government didn't introduce.

[Chili]

1 minute ago, Devon Malcolm said:

The situation is already hopeless, whether Reform get in or not, when the supposed left-wing government is introducing policies that the previous right-wing government didn't introduce.

Yeah it's stuff like that, in my head surely it's just normalising what they're opponents have craved and makes them more palatable to people who are horrible fucks but slightly undecided, you are just not going to win Reform voters over or away, you can't deprogram them, they think they're the victims and they want nothing but Nigel Farage to win, they want to win. They don't care about what happens afterwards and when he fucks them over, and they'll be convinced it was something else at fault. People are incredibly fucking thick, but that makes them easy to mobilize, especially now when they feel as emboldened as ever. 

I just don't see what changes. Is anyone much much smarter than me able to explain where Reform could absolutely fuck it up and not get in? By the way I'm aware that Labour and the Tories really don't seem any better and your other options like Libs or Greens are just not there yet, well not in this generation, maybe 20 years from now or something.

[BomberPat]

The mad part is that it's not unfeasible for the Conservative Party to be able to regroup and outflank Labour from the left on multiple issues, and still be considered a sufficiently right-wing conservative party to get in. 

I'm genuinely not that concerned about a Reform win; we're still potentially more than four years out from the next general election, and any number of things could change by then. I don't see Labour meaningfully moving any further to the left - though by then we should have seen most, if not all, train companies nationalised at least - but I think it's more likely that in that time we see a slow rebuild of the Tory party, rather than an increasingly strong Reform. After Reform's successes in local elections, we've already seen multiple Reform councillors step down or be suspended within days or weeks of getting elected - either because they were paper candidates who never expected to win, because they had posted offensive stuff on social media, or because they broke the rules and stood for election despite holding jobs that either prohibit them from doing so, or prohibit them from doing so as a member of a political party. They're just not a serious party that are remotely prepared to stand in meaningful numbers at a general election.

On top of that, the Tory Party have far better and longer established connections in the corridors of power. The press will be quick to rehabilitate them the closer we get to an election, and present them as the natural party of power all over again - the Tories are allowed to escape their baggage more than any other party. I think the next election will be a two-horse race, with the Tories still not quite getting enough votes to win, and their base being split with Reform, and Labour winning a very narrow minority, then losing to a fully restored Tory Party at the next go-around - and I wouldn't rule out a Conservative Party/Reform merger by that point, and I'm still not entirely unconvinced that Reform hasn't always been a grand project designed to give Farage a platform to play kingmaker for the Tories in return for a prominent cabinet position.


More than anything, though, Labour are fucking things for themselves by trying to push further right in the hope of winning over Reform voters. It's the near collapse of the Tories that has handed Reform success, not Labour insufficiently out-bastarding them. The Telegraph two days ago ran a headline about "Starmer's enslavement to woke ideology". It doesn't matter what Labour do - they will never push as far right as Reform on immigration, so people who vote for Reform won't start voting for a lesser version of what they're offering, and they're never going to win over the rest of the right-wing, who will go on slandering them as Muslim-loving, anti-British, woke Stalinist loonie leftie wokes regardless of what they do. 

[Carbomb]

To make up for the imagined awfulness of the last page, here's some real awfulness: Poland just narrowly elected, 51-49% (roughly), a far-right president.

[SuperBacon]

3 hours ago, BomberPat said:

though by then we should have seen most, if not all, train companies nationalised at least

I read the other day that 3 companies own 90% of the train stock in the UK and leases it to the operators, which means unless they bring the stock into public ownership as well, that the trains will never be fully nationalised, which sort of defeats the point a bit that they're still paying private companies.

I don't like the name Great British Railways either. Sounds like a Portillo TV show.

[LaGoosh]

Labour's insistence on getting drawn into the never ending "culture war" is baffling to me. They can never win that. They shouldn't even acknowledge it. If they can demonstrably prove that they are doing positive things that actually matter to the day to day needs of the average person - getting the prices down in the supermarkets, genuine widespread affordable housing, cheaper childcare, fix the fucking roads, improve the NHS etc. - and focus their message entirely on those things they'll be fine. Right wing views on Immigration, diversity and trans rights is not going to save them.

[RedTwoster]

6 hours ago, Chili said:

I think I said it before but and yes it's me doom predicting mixed in with a bit of hopeless depression at the moment, but Reform are winning aren't they. It's just going to happen because in my head seeing the way the wind blows and how extremely stupid Starmer seems to be hopelessly courting the voters, it'll happen. The Tories feel like they're in a down cycle for a generation. In my head I just see those cunts winning because the stupid country just wants something different because they think they're in charge and what they think Reform will do, so the consequences don't matter, not will they take any blame for it when they fuck themselves.

I really hope I'm permanently in France by then.

Maybe it’s naive optimism, but I think tactical voting will keep Reform out. If we had proportional representation in Westminster elections I don’t think they’d ever get in - but given that we don’t, there’s certainly a danger that Farage will end up in Number 10. But if the polls threaten that outcome, I really do think seats at risk of falling to them will experience tactical voting at a level that’ll make it tough for them.

I reckon we’ll either see a hung parliament, or a narrow Labour majority. 

[Carbomb]

41 minutes ago, RedTwoster said:

Maybe it’s naive optimism, but I think tactical voting will keep Reform out. If we had proportional representation in Westminster elections I don’t think they’d ever get in - but given that we don’t, there’s certainly a danger that Farage will end up in Number 10. But if the polls threaten that outcome, I really do think seats at risk of falling to them will experience tactical voting at a level that’ll make it tough for them.

I reckon we’ll either see a hung parliament, or a narrow Labour majority. 

Sorry, but the last election was the first one I've ever been able to vote in when I was relieved we didn't have PR. PR is a much fairer system, but the downside of it is that it allows more extreme elements into the house. Look at Reform's votes last time. I dread to think how many seats they'd have under PR.

[Devon Malcolm]

Meanwhile in Poland:-

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx27897vedno

Centre-left candidate tries to adopt right and far-right policies - is beaten by a far-right candidate.

[Guest]

Reform aren't going from 3 MPs to a majority government in 1 election. The campaign infrastructure required to win an election is far too big to just roll out at that level, and requires far smarter agents at a local level, and there are big parts of the country (south east, particularly) where Tory voters are going to split lib dem rather than Reform. The big success this next election for them will be becoming a significant party in parliament, but I wouldn't even worry about them becoming opposition yet. 

My own personal theory is that a lot of the blue labour stuff isn't really about reform, it's about properly crushing the Tories ideologically. They still haven't properly planted a flag since the election and I wonder if McSweeney thinks he may be able to take them out of the game for 10 years rather than 5. That's a pretty horrendous justification for some of the decisions, but I wonder. 

It's no secret that this government is banking everything on economic growth. They clearly figure that they can do unpopular stuff as long as living standards are higher in 5 years, bills are lower, wages are highee etc. They're probably right. But they actually need to get some economic growth first...