News/Current Affairs thread

[Joe Blog]

On 3/26/2024 at 11:13 AM, Devon Malcolm said:

Car fuel doesn't melt steel beams.

Boat fuel does

[Scratch]

Here's something that made me smile no end on the BBC website this morning:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-bristol-68617352

Quote

A Bristol man has quit his job to build railway departure boards for a living.

Russell Pirie, a software engineer from Bradley Stoke, was inspired to make a homemade version of the station displays after becoming fascinated by them on his daily commute.

The displays have proven popular with commuters and people with autism, and Russell's family have been recruited to help manufacture them.

People living abroad have even bought them, to track train activity at their local stations back in the UK.

 

[SuperBacon]

Escalation in the middle east tonight as Iran sends a shit load of drones towards Israel.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/apr/13/iran-launches-drone-attack-against-israel

It now seems that regional war between multiple countries is a real possibility.

[Chili]

6 minutes ago, SuperBacon said:

Escalation in the middle east tonight as Iran sends a shit load of drones towards Israel.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/apr/13/iran-launches-drone-attack-against-israel

It now seems that regional war between multiple countries is a real possibility.

Simple question and I'm not being sarcastic here but, are we all fucked now?

[Donald J Trump]

This is genuinely worrying. Whilst anything was on the table, history suggests that we were in for another round of cat and mouse. Iran gets one proxy to get another proxy to fire a missile at a US military target in the Middle East after warning them in advance, or the usual dog and pony show of Iran having to be held back by allies in an effort to look like they might do something, like a hard man being told "This isn't you, he's not worth it" by one of his mates. 

If this is a direct attack by Iran on Israel this is at the more extreme end of the spectrum and gives Israel every opportunity to escalate further if this is their agenda. All bets are off here I fear, but I hope I'm wrong. 

[The Gaffer]

Yeah, not a "That's it! World War 3!" person but this doesn't feel good at all. 

[Loki]

This was almost inevitable after Israel crossed the line with their attack on a consulate in Syria.  There aren't that many rules in international politics, but the sanctity of embassies is one of them; otherwise diplomacy is impossible.

Best case is that Israels formidable anti-missile and anti-aircraft systems intercept the drones and missiles; they might then limit their response.  Worst case, Bibi has nukes although he can't launch them on his own (unlike POTUS).  Most likely Israel will strike some military targets in Iran, which they do relatively often anyway.

[TheScarlettChad]

Well that's not good. Odds on the draft coming back?

[Donald J Trump]

4 minutes ago, TheScarlettChad said:

Well that's not good. Odds on the draft coming back?

With regards to conflict in the Middle East I think the chances are slim. Even if the worst case scenario short of a Nuclear War unfolded between Iran and Israel and the UK became involved, it'd be a conflict more suited to highly trained, experienced personal rather than conscripted forces.

The Russian situation is different. You would need a much larger military in terms of numbers than we have just now if we were pulled into a land war in Europe. Even at that, I'd expect conscription with a more limited scope as we've seen discussed in other European countries recently. Fellow middle aged potatoes like me can't rest easy either, the average age of a conscripted soldier in Ukraine is 43, so if we do end up in the shit it'll take all sorts. 

[SuperBacon]

Me with my bad knee waving you all off to war:

[d-d-d-dAz]

The Iranian's just wanted to show strength, and then twist it to sell their people a massive victory. In reality they couldn't have given Israel more notice, allowing them to get their defences together and avoid massive casualties.

Iran really don't want this to escalate, so providing Israel aren't ham fisted in their response this is likely just an irresponsible flash point, rather than a precursor towards a major war.

So, we just have to rely on Israeli calm headedness and instinct for proportional responses. That's good, then.

[SuperBacon]

3 minutes ago, d-d-d-dAz said:

The Iranian's just wanted to show strength, and then twist it to sell their people a massive victory.

Another perspective is that Israel knew what kind of retaliation they would get when they bombed the diplomatic building in Damascus, knowing full well their defences would be able to intercept the drones sent by Iran, but showing they are once again under "attack" and therefore pushing that victim mentality to the world.

You have to admire these sort of chess moves really. It's sometimes quite impressive how they do it.

[Merzbow]

It does feel like a desperate attempt to get countries that were siding away from them to get back on board 'cause "Iran Bad".

[Donald J Trump]

It's all been very orderly so far, and more like a carefully orchestrated fireworks display than armageddon. I think last night suited both the Iranian and Israeli leadership, though probably not their people. Iran were able to show the domestic audience and regional enemies that they are willing and able to deviate from their typically measured actions in situations like this, and they brought people onside by appearing to defend Palestine. The Israeli leadership may feel that their fate is at odds with a diplomatic and peaceful resolution to all hostilities, so anything that stirs the hornets nest without causing actual harm won't be unwelcome. 

The big question is whether Israel responds. Out of all parties involved (other than Hamas) they are the least predictable/rational actor given Netenyahus situation, so while common sense suggests they should consider themselves square they may see this as an opportunity. 

There's been a lot of sympathy for Palestinians and rightly so, but it's a hell of a time to live in Israel just now. From personal experience those sirens are deafening and fill you with absolute dread, and knowing that people are firing rockets towards your location takes some getting used to. Looking up and seeing that last night must have been terrifying. Ultimately they are a democracy, and there'll come a point when people have had enough. I should add I've probably spent more time on the other side of the fence in Palestine and it's a lot worse, and it's hard not to have immense sympathy for those on both sides who just want to keep their heads down, earn a few quid and raise a family, which is the overwhelming majority. 

[LaGoosh]

19 hours ago, Chili said:

Simple question and I'm not being sarcastic here but, are we all fucked now?

No.