News/Current Affairs thread

[d-d-d-dAz]

Iran don't really have the military or political capability to bring the world kicking and screaming into World War 3, for those scared by such things.

I'm a very skittish reader of international relations, but even I struggle to get there with Iran. It could easily descend into a regional cluster fuck, but neither Russia or China are desperate to jump in and Russia are actually using the crisis to try and look like the international grown ups.

In the game of 'are we fucked?' Top Trump's, the winning card is still very much 'Russia in Eastern Europe'.

[Donald J Trump]

Id agree with that. I think Iran's military is strong enough to be problematic for regional enemies, and they'd pose a significant challenge to anyone taking the fight to them and hoping to inflict a decisive military defeat. They don't however have the ability to project any kind of significant military threat outside their own neighbourhood, and they're very unlikely to pull other major powers into their mucky bathwater, as has been noted. It's hard to see a pathway to a global conflict via this crisis, my only concern is that regional upheaval would be an issue given the wider areas importance in a number of areas, like trade/resources etc. Its far more likely to be number 2 or 3 in a list of problems if it really went sideways, rather than the main threat thats going to keep us awake at night. 

Interesting how quickly Western personnel were deployed to defend one non NATO member against a missile barrage from another non NATO member. I gather there are defence agreements in place with Israel that don't necessitate a British response in the event they are attacked, so it would have been a conscious decision to become involved. Clearly the difference between Israel and Ukraine is that our involvement defending Israel reduced the risk of escalation whereas it would have the opposite effect were we to come to Ukraine's aid. That won't seem like much comfort to Ukrainians who've been living with all kinds of incoming fire for the past 2 years though. 

[Keith Houchen]

Don’t know if anyone has seen this pisspipe all over the news? He’s the guy who police stopped crossing the road while a pro Palestinian march was happening and threatened to Nick him for breach of the peace  

Obviously it’s ridiculous that plod described him as “Openly Jewish” and they have apologised. I’ve found it pretty galling that he was getting fuck all pushback across media yesterday. Campaigners have known this Guy for ages. He’s an agitator cut from the same cloth as Tommy Robinson. 
 

His account of events has fallen apart after the slightest bit of scrutiny. He, his security and his film crew all walked through the march to no reaction, so they rocked up to a counter protest where there was a police presence and tried again, eventually getting something filmable. As usual, the full footage paints a different picture to the one he painted of a Jewish bloke merely wanting to cross a road. Also recently, he said how every single person on there marches is a Hamas and terrorist supporter. 
 

Also, in answer to his question here, I’m going to go with “Yes”

 

[Loki]

Yeah, the whole story stinks to me.  It's been pointed out by some outlets that there were Jewish protesters marching, who weren't in danger, weren't harassed and weren't singled out by the police.  Which kind of suggests that he and his crew were doing something that warranted Inspector Knacker's attention.

I can't imagine the stress of having to police these marches, with counter protests and agitators mixed with peaceful marchers, and it sounds like the policeman on the scene had a serious brain fart when it came to his choice of words.  Having watched it in context, it doesn't seem deliberately antisemitic as much as stressed and hurried.

There's almost certainly been an uptick in antisemitism since the October terrorist attack, and I am sympathetic to people over here feeling the heat for something a foreign government is doing thousands of miles away, but this particular news story feels heavily manufactured and counter productive.  

Edited April 22 by Loki
insert hiphop lyrics here

[Donald J Trump]

I'm in two minds about this. I listened to Gideon Falter for an hour on LBC on Sunday night as he fielded calls from members of the public. Unless you're bent on a car crash for the ages you'd need to have a fair amount of confidence in yourself as a communicator to undertake something like that, and putting to one side the substance of his argument he held his own, this man is an effective operator. 

It may well be that he went to the rally looking to make a point. Theres nothing wrong with that if there's an important point to be made and only becomes problematic if what transpires is manipulated to any degree or if events are taken out of context to the extent that the narrative presented is completely at odds with what actually happened. Thankfully, there's enough footage so that people can reach an informed conclusion for themselves. 

Two things stand out for me that aren't mutually exclusive. Policing these events is an absolute shitemare and the people doing it are often put in impossible positions. I also think that some of the language the officer used is unfortunate but entirely forgivable given the circumstances. I think he was trying to be open and honest to try and arrive at some common ground but through no fault of his own they ended up moving further away from where they needed to be. It happens, it'll be a learning experience for him and I hope he's able to move on as being thrust into the public eye like that can be quite traumatic. 

The other thing that stands out for me is the point that Gideon Falter may or may not have been trying to make. At a basic level, I'd say it's the possibility that some of these matches are an uncomfortable or possibly threatening place for some Jewish people to be. I can't honestly say that concern doesn't have any merit. In the vast majority of footage I've seen the marches have been peaceful, and Jews have attended the marches themselves without issue. There is an element within the Jewish diaspora that is antizionist, and they are often represented at events where the State of Israel is the subject of protest, so that isn't surprising in itself. 

I'm just worried about the possibility that some Jews feel parts of London are regularly becoming no-go areas or that they are routinely having their rights and freedoms curtailed. As much as there are Jews that participate in the marches, I've also heard from Jews that ostensibly don't have an agenda who give plausible accounts that are concerning. I don't want the right to protest curtailed, but I'd be a lot more relaxed if I had confidence that Jews didn't have legitimate issues or concerns. You're never going to keep everyone happy, and there will be a minority that are a lot happier being unhappy. As long as every reasonable step is being taken we can all rest easy, and my worry is that we are a fair bit away from that point at the moment. 

[Carbomb]

One of the biggest casualties of the Zionist right-wing's propaganda, designed to essentially split Jews off from the general civil rights/social justice movement by telling people that Jew = Israeli = Zionist = right-wing Israeli government supporter, is that it has worked all too well, not only with the Jews they want to claim, but with the anti-imperialist/anti-Zionist elements of the left who really should know better. I've had to point out to a few acquaintances that there are a lot of Jews and Israelis who don't like what the Israeli government are doing, and who actively oppose the actions of the state of Israel (like, for example, the friend I mentioned some months ago - a Jewish Israeli who, in her career as a lawyer, defended Palestinians in Israeli military courts). 

It's a difficult one, because, on the other hand, antisemitism is the one form of racism in this country that someone can't get away with when it comes to the media and the political establishment - it ends public and political careers, and gets much less shrift from journalists and commentators than other forms of racism (indeed, racism against POC in this country could even be said to be a vote-winner). 

A lot of this shit could be avoided if people just remembered their political discipline, and remembered why they oppose racism and oppression. If they held on to that general principle, there would be no need for any ethnic group to fear for their existence, including Jews, regardless of how much the Zionist propaganda machine tells them that "we're the only people who give a fuck about you, don't trust any Gentiles".

[Vamp]

If you look at the CSTs numbers there's undoubtedly a rise in antisemitism that's happened during this period. That's demonstrated in everything from threats and abusive behaviour to damage of property and assault. That rise started after the Hamas attacks but before Israel's response to it. So whether you agree with Israel's response or not (and, as mentioned, there's plenty of Jews who don't) the rise in antisemitism started before it. 

Even in the cases CST logs about the phrase "Free Palestine" (which obviously isn't antisemitic by itself) it argues that each of the cases it recorded was targeted specifically at a Jewish people or institutions or were part of overtly antisemitic comments. 

Unfortunately, televised news being what it is, it needs a face for it. Personally, I'd rather it be someone who seeks attention because it probably saves some unsuspecting person from stepping into a shit storm of abuse. 

[Devon Malcolm]

Peter Oborne's babyface turn tour continues.