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The Notorious v Money


ColinBollocks

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15 hours ago, d-d-d-dAz said:

I'm already sick of the boxing world's bleating about this fight.

I'd give my feet to see Conor knock out Mayweather. The hand-wringing afterwards would be delicious.

Your not the only one fed up of bleating about this fight though I hope Conor gets the living hell beaten out of him. 

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Yeah, because a scumbag who battered the mother of his kids, in front of his kids, is so much more likeable. 

Did McGregor once have a treesome with your girlfriend and your sister or something? I mean, people can root for or against whoever and I can see why some would dislike McGregor. But you seem to really hate him. All I remember you ever posting about in MMA threads is anti-McGregor and anti-Rousey stuff. 

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On 2017-6-20 at 11:43 AM, Noah Southworth said:

If Conor somehow pulls it off, where do we think it should rank in the list of all time biggest sporting upsets? It would obviously be one of the biggest of all time, but would it be the biggest?

Probably wouldn't rank inside the top 10,000 biggest upsets in sport. He is 6/1 to win. There have been so many more >6/1 winners and there will probably even be some today across all 1-on-1 sports (individual or team not counting Outright long term events) 

In terms of greatest sporting upsets i doubt anything will ever beat Leicester winning the Prem at 5000/1

As previously mentioned Japan to beat South Africa in 2015 World Cup (not sure of odds)

Ireland to beat New Zealand were 12/1 last year

The list goes on. 

If you just want to talk about combat sports Buster Douglas was 42/1 to beat Tyson.

Edgar to beat Penn and Dillashaw to beat Barao were both given less chance than Conor to beat Mayweather.

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5 minutes ago, The Chiefdog said:

 He is 6/1 to win. There have been so many more >6/1

I've already said my opinion that I wouldn't call it one of biggest of all time, but those odds are an absolute joke. 

In reality it should be at least 20 or 30-1. 

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1 minute ago, lambyUK said:

I've already said my opinion that I wouldn't call it one of biggest of all time, but those odds are an absolute joke. 

In reality it should be at least 20 or 30-1. 

100% agree. If you think McGregor will win you'd be crazy to bet on him at 6/1. No value there at all.

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2 minutes ago, The Chiefdog said:

100% agree. If you think McGregor will win you'd be crazy to bet on him at 6/1. No value there at all.

The point I was really making is that you were using the current odds (which are ridiculous) on a Mcgregor win against other sporting shocks that's we've seen in the past.

I don't think you can looks at the odds when it comes to this fight when judging just how much of a shock it would be. 

As I mentioned in the thread, it wouldn't be the biggest shock, but it would certainly shock the world.

 

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The thing to remember about betting odds is that they reflect betting patterns more than actual probabilities. You can rarely take them at face value as an indication of the genuine probability of something taking place.

28 minutes ago, lambyUK said:

In reality it should be at least 20 or 30-1. 

That's being very generous to Conor. I think even 100-1 would be too low.

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5 minutes ago, Noah Southworth said:

The thing to remember about betting odds is that they reflect betting patterns more than actual probabilities. You can rarely take them at face value as an indication of the genuine probability of something taking place.

That's being very generous to Conor. I think even 100-1 would be too low.

You could be right. For me, 20-1 or 30-1 should be the betting odds, and certainly not the preposterous 6/1 that's currently being touted. 

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the bookies were never gonna open the odds that wide because there's a huge mystery element to this whole thing and if Conor somehow pulls it off the bookies would be rinsed because there's going to be millions placed on him.

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Also, how often do you see bookies offer those sorts of odds on anyone in an event with two competitors, and as such only two potential winners? The liability is far too big for their margins in a two horse race, especially in a scenario where a lucky punch could conceivably cost them a fortune. I've been out of the betting shop game for a number of years,  but I doubt big odds are something you'll see on pretty much any boxing match, let alone one with variables and unknowns aplenty.  

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I'd also hazard a guess that they don't want to discourage people from laying bets in the numbers they clearly will following McG's promotional shenanigans. If the odds are too high, like 100-1, you'll get a lot of casuals put off from putting money on him, thinking "wait a sec - those bookies must know something we don't".

In essence, the bookies are making bets themselves; they're betting on making money from a situation in which they reckon McG will lose, they reckon he will talk up enough of a good game to get people believing in him, and they reckon enough people will believe in him to lay bets down in large numbers, and in large amounts given the relative shortness of the odds.

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