UFC 202: Diaz vs McGregor 2

[Supremo]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&persist_app=1&v=vy2YG3mjbLI

 

The Irish have arrived. I can't wait.

[GlennCullen]

 

 

I think all the work Conor put in might buy him another round. Diaz by R3 Sub. And I love Conor, and would love nothing more than to see him avenge that loss and re-establish himself as the biggest star in the game. The fact is though, Conor lauched his best at Diaz, connected clean on many, many occasions, and all it really took from Nate was a quick 1-2 combo to have Conor scrambling for a takedown.

 

 

That's oversimplifying the fight though, isn't it? Conors best route to victory here is to keep moving and win a points decision, maybe even wearing down Diaz enough over the 5 rounds to get a finish. Last time he threw a load of power punches early doors and knackered himself out, meaning he had nothing left when Diaz connected a couple of times. Poor game planning was McGregor's undoing in the last fight, not Nate's hammer fists.

[David]

It appears that most people who're envisioning a way for McGregor to improve on the last fight and take the win aren't taking into account the fact that last time Diaz was coming into the fight on short notice and was nowhere near fight-ready.

 

From what I've seen Diaz has been training like a demon for this fight, which makes me think we're going to see a similar fighter to the one who stepped in the cage against Michael Johnson and Cowboy Cerrone.

 

In fact, remember that fight? Remember how he completely took Cerrone to pieces? That was against a striker who's bigger, hits harder and has an actual ground game.

[jimufctna24]

Cerrone is much easier to hit though. The likes of Barboza and Guillard had him in a world of trouble. Pettis and RDA finished him with relative ease. McGregor is much more tricky. 

 

That being said, I'm very confident in my prediction of a Diaz victory. 

[David]

Cerrone is much easier to hit though. The likes of Barboza and Guillard had him in a world of trouble. Pettis and RDA finished him with relative ease. McGregor is much more tricky. 

 

That being said, I'm very confident in my prediction of a Diaz victory. 

 

McGregor may be more elusive, but he's also not as tall or as rangey as Cerrone, doesn't hit as hard as Cowboy, and certainly doesn't have his ground game.

 

My main point is that we're seeing a lot of people talking about how McGregor will adjust his game coming into this fight, but not many people seem to be recognising the fact that Nate will be primed and ready to go this time, and has also seen what McGregor has to offer and has felt his power.

[seanz25]

Connor definitely looked more agitated in the weigh ins yesterday, Kavanah says in his book on the last fight he felt Connor got to emotionally invested early and in the end it came back to bite him, could be the same tonight.

 

That being said this is McGregor's first time in forever we've seen him fight a guy he's specifically spent the camp training for, that's gonna be interesting, there's got to me a more defined game plan this time round, Connor can't just brawl for the entirety of 5 rounds with Diaz, I don't think he has the same chin.

 

Think the argument about Nate being on a full camp is interesting, if reports are true and Nate constantly keeps himself in shape round the clock anyway then perhaps it won't really make a significant difference in his performance.

 

Believe Connors obscure movement could be a big factor tonight, if he's been truly studying Nates other fights then perhaps all that of balance movement, turns etc could throw Diaz off and leave him more open to McGregor's punches.

 

Either way, whatever happens, tonight will be fun and I look forward to the 3rd fight either in the UFC or at Bellator 300.

[wandshogun09]

Fuck...I'm sorry for the length of this post. I'm way too excited for this fight.

 

It appears that most people who're envisioning a way for McGregor to improve on the last fight and take the win aren't taking into account the fact that last time Diaz was coming into the fight on short notice and was nowhere near fight-ready.

I'm certainly not dismissing that. But while Diaz was at a disadvantage notice-wise, they did kind of make concessions for that by having the fight at 170. Which is a weight Nate had fought at before and McGregor hadn't. So he was coming in with no camp but it wasn't like he was completely fucked over and had to drop loads of weight or something.

 

The short notice fucked both of them over last time IMO. Definitely moreso for Nate but he had nothing to lose really. He was expected to lose and was being brought in to lose. The pressure was off him and he had the fight at a weight that favoured his frame more than Conor's.

 

In fact, when it was announced that Dos Anjos was out of 196, I remember people saying they should go with Nate as he was the easiest win for McGregor. It's funny now everyone's opinion has completely flipped on its head. I'm including myself in that as well. I never gave Nate much of a shot going into 196.

 

Rematches are weird like that. You get some like Weidman vs Silva where everyone's convinced the guy who lost will avenge himself in the rematch. Then you get ones like Diaz vs McGregor where no-one gave Nate much chance going in, then he wins and everyone acts like that means it'll go like that 10/10 times.

 

I don't really get it. I could definitely see a few scenarios where Nate wins. It could go exactly like the first fight for all we know. But some people are going on like Diaz vs McGregor 1 was Velasquez vs Dos Santos 2. It was a really competitive fight, McGregor made too many mistakes, Nate was tough enough to still be around when he made those mistakes, he capitalised and he won. That doesn't mean McGregor will make the same mistakes again though. It wasn't that type of fight last time.

 

I guess what I'm saying is I completely get why people would pick another Diaz win. But I don't get why the majority opinion seems to be that McGregor has a Serra vs GSP like chance of winning. That's bollocks.

 

There's loads of factors that could come into play.

 

- Was McGregor overconfident coming off the Aldo KO? He seemed it to me. He's always cocky but the way he totally dismissed Nate going into 196 was clear. He barely mentioned Nate's skills at all. Just talked about money, cholo gangsters, animal balloons, lions and gazelles. I really think the Aldo win had gone to his head. Even in the fight he was talking shit and dropping his hands more than usual.

 

- Did he bulk up incorrectly/too fast to adjust to the extra weight? He must've done, right?

 

- He had his opponent switched too remember. He went from fighting RDA at 155. A shorter guy, a powerhouse, all-rounder, strong kicker, good takedowns etc. To fighting a lanky, pure boxer/BJJ guy. Nate's a completely different style than RDA. I know McGregor always said he didn't train for specific guys but when the frame and style totally changes 10 days out from what you were expecting it's not ideal is it?

 

- Did he underestimate the difference in weight and what that would mean for his power and his opponents durability? Again we can't know for sure but it seemed like there was some of that.

 

This isn't excuses. Nate did a phenomenal job to roll in on short notice and do what he did. It wasn't a fluke. He took some hard digs and still came out on top. But I'm just making the point that they both should be better this time.

 

From what I've seen Diaz has been training like a demon for this fight, which makes me think we're going to see a similar fighter to the one who stepped in the cage against Michael Johnson and Cowboy Cerrone.

True but he doesn't look like that consistently. It's one of the big reasons in struggling to have the confidence in Nate that everyone else has suddenly developed since March. If he looked like he did against Johnson, Cerrone, Jim Miller etc fight in-fight out that'd be a different story. But he's so hit and miss. Sometimes he'll look like a world beater, other times he seems like he's not that arsed.

 

In fact, remember that fight? Remember how he completely took Cerrone to pieces? That was against a striker who's bigger, hits harder and has an actual ground game.

I think it's actually doing Diaz a disservice to say McGregor has no ground game at all. Diaz has some of the best BJJ in MMA. I'd say the only guys above him and Nick for pure BJJ in the UFC are the proper world champion level grapplers like Fabricio Werdum, Demian Maia, Jacare, BJ Penn etc.

 

I'm not saying McGregor is a strong grappler. It's clearly the biggest hole in his game. But getting subbed by Nate Diaz, especially while you're rocked, doesn't make you Kimbo Slice on the ground. He did manage to control Max Holloway on the ground for pretty much a full 2 rounds with a fucked up knee. And Holloway's grappling is solid. So he's got a clue. He's just not on Nate's level on the ground.

 

Remember as well, the reason it went to the ground last time is because Nate rocked Conor and Conor shot for a takedown? What happens if Nate just doesn't rock McGregor this time. It's not like he's typically a massive one shot puncher. If he doesn't rock McGregor this time then it probably won't ever go to the ground because Nate's never been a big takedown guy either.

 

It's a lot more of an interesting and tricky fight to call than most are making out IMO.

[jimufctna24]

Stefan Leko and James Toney had no ground game. They made McGregor look like Demian Maia.

 

The bookies have McGregor as a slight favourite. It wouldn't be a massive surprise if McGregor wins, but I'm more convinced by the arguments for Diaz. 

[adequate8]

With all the pros backing Diaz, how is McGregor still favourite odds-wise? Bookies aren't mugs we know that but the tips/predictions for this are so varied!

[jimufctna24]

With all the pros backing Diaz, how is McGregor still favourite odds-wise? Bookies aren't mugs we know that but the tips/predictions for this are so varied!

While I'm picking Diaz myself - I think the pros are a bit biased.

 

I suspect a lot of them harbour resentment toward McGregor. He's pissed on a lot of people's bonfires. 

[Keith Houchen]

My guess is that more people have put money on McGregor, so they'll have him as favourite to balance their books.

[adequate8]

http://www.mmafighting.com/2016/8/20/12556522/ufc-202-odds-and-gambling-strategy-guide

 

Decent article, Diaz/glover/story treble for me

[Philjax]

McGregor

Johnson TKO/KO

Garbrandt TKO/KO

Pennington

Markos

Asian Guy

Means TKO/KO

 

Think there's gonna be some absolute bangers on this show, not all included above.

[Loligan]

If anyone wants to watch live and legal and has an ee phone. They are doing bt sports free for 6 months on your device just text sport to 150. Set this up today and bonus is mines a Samsung and so is my telly so I can cast right to the big screen.

[Guy Bifkin]

I've managed to find a way to watch this motherfucker live now. There are loads of fighters I like more but nothing can beat the buzz of a Conor McGregor fight.

 

What little I know how about MMA all points to a Diaz victory but something deep in my balls says a McGregor win by headkick. I really hope he wins because I think a little of the magic might wane with another decisive loss.

 

What sort of time can we expect the main event to kick off our time?