US politics

[The King Of Swing]

Personally I'm leaning towards Harris winning and pretty convincingly.

Nothing scientific has lead me to that conclusion. Just a general feeling based on how Trump's campaign has been since Biden was replaced by Harris. 

[neil]

30 minutes ago, The King Of Swing said:

Personally I'm leaning towards Harris winning and pretty convincingly

You may more of this in the overall popular vote, but not at the electoral college level. However, I do think this is a lot closer due to Harris, Biden would've got crushed by Trump.

[FLips]

18 minutes ago, theringmaster said:

If Trump was to get assassinated it would be a near civil war on the streets of America, they will be convinced the 'Powers that be' took him out and it would be chaos. 

No matter how bad you think Trump is, him taken out would make it ten times worse.

 

This is in no way me saying I want a civil war; my ideal outcome as with many is a Harris win. That being said, I think another Trump presidency could be just as damaging in the long term, if not moreso for not just America but the rest of the World than if they broke out into civil war. Look at the short and long term damage he did in his first term, and in the 3 years since he left. Look at his allies; Musk, Putin, etc. He has the courts and government in his pocket. He's committed uncountable crimes and gotten away with every one of them.
Think of what he's already done to immigrants, to every woman in that country.
There is absolutely no way the USA recovers from another Trump term, assuming he doesn't abolish the limits on that. I think if he wins this election the country is as good as done and I don't necessarily think people would be safer than if a war did break out. There's already been talks of retaliation against the Democrats and they haven't even voted yet.

I don't think it's hyperbolic to say but it's very much the "would you go back and kill Hitler" scenario.

 

[organizedkaos]

I think the hope that he might just be as incompetent as before is at least a hope. Trump achieving none of the terrible things he tries to do because they're too outrageous and then getting stuck by midterms pushing resoundingly against him might actually just fuck him off so he get's bored and lame ducks his way through the bulk of the term.

I mean, that's a fucking terrible angle for "hope" but it's also looking quite plausible that he wins, at which point the question has to be "what next" not "why".

It's not like Harris winning will get him to go away, being a candidate is an excellent way to fundraise (and muddy prosecutions) and the one thing I'm confident about here is Donald Trump likes making money and not being in prison.

 

[organizedkaos]

To clarify, Yes he still did achieve some terrible things.

[JNLister]

2 hours ago, d-d-d-dAz said:

There's also no reliable exit poll really, and the pollsters that might try and give you some clarity are all saying 'no fucking idea mate'.

I'll still watch, because I suspect tonight - especially on the US channels - will be an absolute dumpster fire, and quite the sight to behold.

"Exit poll" is a very different thing in the US. Over here it's just people casting a replica ballot immediately after voting. Over there it's a lengthy survey (with the usual problems about different people being more or less likely to take part/tell the truth) that's more about the type of people who voted and their reasons rather than an attempt to predict the result (though it does act as an extra data point for the TV networks being confident enough to "call" a state.)

The main use of the exit poll on the night is to fill the gap before results come out and do speculation like "85% of people said abortion was their most important factor in voting, so Trump's stuffed.)
 

Also important to understand the big difference in vote counts. We take the ballot boxes from every polling station in a constituency to one place, then count all the votes and announce the actual result. In the US they count the votes at each individual polling station and add them all up. You get a running total, but it's potentially misleading as it depends on which polling stations have finished counting and which are yet to come.

[Tamura]

6 hours ago, d-d-d-dAz said:

This is paywalled, but you get the point from the headline and first para.

The Independent (and lots of similar places) are only paywalled if you use standard browsing mode, as they use tracking cookies to see how many "free" articles you've read. If you use Firefox private browsing mode, Chrome incognito mode, or similar modes on your browser of choice, you can read for free with the added bonus of maintaining a little bit of privacy too.

[Kfogg1991]

I just said to my partner Harris having changes with abortion laws and legislations as a main part of her campaign and policies is a gigantic thing and something millions of Americans have been pushing for change and resolution for many years without success so just that one policy alone will snatch tonnes of votes but it's going to be down to the wire once again it's so gripping and tense.

I'll have the news on throughout the night with praying for the right result but also they are wrong about worries and fears about riots and violence if trump loses on a larger scale than the storming of the senate that he instigated.

[Fog Dude]

5 hours ago, JNLister said:

Also important to understand the big difference in vote counts. We take the ballot boxes from every polling station in a constituency to one place, then count all the votes and announce the actual result. In the US they count the votes at each individual polling station and add them all up. You get a running total, but it's potentially misleading as it depends on which polling stations have finished counting and which are yet to come.

For once this isn't "the American way" being weird but actually Britain and Ireland serving as outliers. This seems to be the way votes are tallied in western Europe and Australia, at the very least. Results from rural areas tend to come in faster than those in the cities because number of votes to count is a more important factor than distance from a central counting location.

Potentially also relevant is the way they're counted. There were three Canadian provincial elections last month, with a clear disparity in how quickly results come in among provinces which used tabulation machines and those that still count by hand. Since US states have if anything more autonomy over election procedure that could be an issue as the night (and week) rolls on as well.

[SuperBacon]

Saw this the other day which seems fairly insane that they'd have unprotected drop boxes that is susceptible to that type of damage.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/30/damaged-ballots-fire-drop-box

[FLips]

Can't believe what I'm waking up to. Truly the stupidest country on the planet.

[The King Of Swing]

Last I checked Trump was even leading the popular vote.

Fucking hell.

[d-d-d-dAz]

Yeah, again pollsters have massively underestimated Trump's vote.

I don't think people are stupid, I think inflation has killed the Democrats and Trump - despite it not being true - has told people who don't follow international politics closely, and don't understand necessarily why inflation has been high, that he'll bring prices down.

But, yeah, it's over. Harris' people have been sent home and Trump is about to give a huge speech to his people. That's a good sign everyone knows what's happening.

The message this sends to women, particularly of colour, though? Fucking hell.

Edited November 6, 2024 by d-d-d-dAz

[FLips]

2 minutes ago, d-d-d-dAz said:

I don't think people are stupid

I think you're being very generous. The majority of Americans have voted for a 78 year old man that talks about people eating cats and dogs and needs to sit on black mats wherever he goes because he shits himself. I'm sure inflation played a part but let's not all pretend this doesn't boil down to racist rich white man vs black woman and all the thickos that come with that vote.

[d-d-d-dAz]

5 minutes ago, FLips said:

I think you're being very generous. The majority of Americans have voted for a 78 year old man that talks about people eating cats and dogs and needs to sit on black mats wherever he goes because he shits himself. I'm sure inflation played a part but let's not all pretend this doesn't boil down to racist rich white man vs black woman and all the thickos that come with that vote.

I don't believe a majority of the country are thick. A lot are, sure, in the same way a lot of people are everywhere. But that wouldn't carry the election. What will have made the difference, or at least what will have made his vote stronger than expected is people in the quiet of the ballot box voting with their wallets.