UFC 264: Poirier vs McGregor 3 - Jul 10 🇺🇸

[David]

The trash talking by McGregor isn't really a factor in my opinion. It's obvious that you can only get away with that if you're winning, and he's coming off a loss so it's not as effective. He's basically just selling the fight to his fans at the moment. Let's be honest, if he approached the promotion like Poirier is there'd be less interest in the fight. 

He's planting the seeds of "the old Conor" being back, and the last time being a fluke. Which he has to, really. Otherwise what's the point of his fans tuning in? 

What will be telling is how he's adjusted for this fight. If he has, and he's shown in the past that he can, then it'll be real interesting. We all know the type of fighter who will beat McGregor nine times out of ten. A strong, durable wrestler who has a chin. Poirier isn't that guy, so there's always a chance that McGregor can win, and I actually give him a decent chance here. He's come back quite quickly, so there's no layoff, and he's reportedly been training quite well, so he'll be better than he was last time I think.

Still going with McG knockout win in the second frame. But it'll be close for as long as it lasts.

[Dai]

Cant believe David, of all people, seems to have fallen for the 'Conor's been training well and will be better than last time' stuff. You only missed out on saying hes 'motivated' this time for the full house of nonsense we get with every McGregor fight these days.

 

Just rewatched the second fight. What I hadnt remembered is that Conor landed some really nice, heavy punches, and Dustin ate them without an issue. These were the world famous, Round 1, fresh, Conor punches, and they had no effect on Dustin.  He was very comfortable through the whole fight, chewed up Conors calf (which he will more than likely do this time as well), and Conor was KO'd during the first big Dustin onslaught of the fight. I can see the fight playing out the exact same way this time, especially with the kicks. Theres no reason why this fight should be a coin flip with the bookies, other than the McGregor fans blindly backing him and driving the prices out of skew. Even money for Poirier is a steal.

[Carbomb]

There's one particular case where I think the trash-talking has potentially changed the nature of what happened in the cage, and that was Nurmagomedov vs. McGregor. Can't shake the feeling Nurmagomedov might have deliberately gone out to punish McG a bit more because of the shit he'd said - that's mainly going off the "talk now" stuff.

[Egg Shen]

4 minutes ago, Dai said:

Cant believe David, of all people, seems to have fallen for the 'Conor's been training well and will be better than last time' stuff. 

probably something to do with everyone else on here thinking Poirier is gonna win 🤷🏻‍♂️

[David]

1 hour ago, Dai said:

Cant believe David, of all people, seems to have fallen for the 'Conor's been training well and will be better than last time' stuff. You only missed out on saying hes 'motivated' this time for the full house of nonsense we get with every McGregor fight these days.

It's not a case of "falling" for anything. He's shown in the past that he's able to adapt after a loss, and I don't think the issues he faced in the last fight are insurmountable. I didn't think he'd get anything from a rematch with Khabib as the areas he fell short in that fight were parts of the game where he's not particularly skilled.

But this is, for the most part, going to be a a stand-up battle, and I believe he's skilled enough on the feet to make the adjustments required to change the outcome. 

I also think he fights better when he's active. He had his best run of results when he was fighting regular, and he's coming into this fight only six months removed from the last after being away for a year before.

It may also be worth pointing out that I don't want him to win. No one in their right mind would want a guy like McGregor to succeed. I want Poirier to stop him in spectacular fashion. He's the ultimate good guy. 

I just think we'll see McGregor come out on top in what will be a tight encounter. I'll be very happy if I'm wrong though.

[David]

1 hour ago, Dai said:

Just rewatched the second fight. What I hadnt remembered is that Conor landed some really nice, heavy punches, and Dustin ate them without an issue. These were the world famous, Round 1, fresh, Conor punches, and they had no effect on Dustin.  He was very comfortable through the whole fight, chewed up Conors calf (which he will more than likely do this time as well), and Conor was KO'd during the first big Dustin onslaught of the fight. I can see the fight playing out the exact same way this time, especially with the kicks. Theres no reason why this fight should be a coin flip with the bookies, other than the McGregor fans blindly backing him and driving the prices out of skew. Even money for Poirier is a steal.

Apologies for the double post, but he didn't eat them "without issue." Dustin himself said:

"He hurt me with the left hand. Nothing went, but he flashed me good. If he would have pressured and I would have gotten hit again, I think I would have been really hurt.”

I know everyone hates Conor nowadays, but let's separate the arsehole he is in everyday life with the guy he is in the cage. He's no chump. He's fairly one dimensional, but that one dimension he's pretty decent at. This is a good fight for him matchup-wise.

It's a coin flip with the bookies for the very reason Dustin mentioned above. McGregor can land a good shot, and if he closes in this time he could very easily win the fight. The same goes for Poirier, he could easily land first and put McGregor away.

This fight should definitely be considered a close call heading in.

[theringmaster]

Watching that presser was a bit odd. Conor just seemed....old hat? Somebody above mentioned he was like a singer singing old songs and that's a good description. I'm still a Conor fan but this whole week he seems like he is 'trying' to be the old Coner, kinda like when a wrestler comes back but they have aged and stopped taking roids so look more like a tribute act.

 

I'm honestly starting to think this will be an early night, McGregor will come out guns blazing but Poirier will level him and lights out. Either way if we get to round 2 I think Poirier will win, whether its a highlight ko again or reel in to stoppage I don't know.

[wandshogun09]

17 minutes ago, theringmaster said:

I'm still a Conor fan 

[Egg Shen]

Just watching Embedded. The Thompson family aint hurting for cash are they? you see Wonderboy's fathers gaff? 😲

[Egg Shen]

we are all set to go

[wandshogun09]

WTF have I just watched? 😂

 

[Egg Shen]

[David]

Looking forward to this card tonight. Love or hate McG, he's never boring and he's never in boring fights. 

[Egg Shen]

You ain't wrong Dai, no one else generates buzz like this. Can't wait.

[wandshogun09]

@David Yep. And the same goes for Dustin. You can’t really go wrong with those two. 

I’m gonna have to try and stay up for this one live. It’s my boy’s 3rd birthday tomorrow so we’ll be busy, then the Euro final later on. There’s no way I’d get around to doing my usual Sunday watch of this. And because it’s a Conor McGregor card, spoilers are gonna be everywhere. So it’s an all nighter for me, probably followed by about an hour’s sleep before I’m stumbling around singing Happy Birthday.

Dustin Poirier vs Conor McGregor 3 - We’ve all gone into it, read about it, listened to interviews and all that. We’re finally just hours away from it being settled. Like we’ve said above, I can’t see past this being another all-action, drama filled fight. Their styles match up perfectly for finishes as well. If they fought each other 100 times, I doubt you’d get 10 fights that go the distance. They’re both all about the aggression and they’re both vicious show closers when they get an opponent hurt. I’ve probably just jinxed it now and it’ll go 5 rounds but, honestly, I don’t think that’d be bad news either. If this goes 5 rounds it’s probably gonna be all-out war.

In the end, I’m saying Poirier by KO again. There’s likely a bit of wishful thinking in there, I admit. With these two I think there’s not much in it and the margins for error are so small. A lot has been made of McGregor declining but I think that’s a bit overplayed. I think that last fight was mostly down to Poirier just getting his tactics spot on and executing them. People talk about ‘the McGregor who beat Aldo’ and stuff but that was McGregor at 145. Above 145, he’s still a very good fighter but he’s not quite as effective. I think it’s more that than a decline in skills, to be honest. Since the Aldo fight he’s gone 2-1 at Welterweight with the wins being over Diaz and a fading Cerrone. Who were both 155ers moving up like him. And he’s gone 1-2 at Lightweight. He’s got undeniable skills but I just don’t think he’s ever been the world beater above 145 that some would like to believe he is. All that said, he’s still got the capability to hurt guys at 155. He definitely had his moments early against Dustin last time, we saw what he did to Alvarez and even up at 170 he was able to damage Diaz in fights and Diaz is known for his toughness. I just think unless he knocks Dustin out very early, or hurts him enough to where it badly effects him for the rest of the fight, Poirier will just prove too much animal for him as it goes into the trenches. Close to a tossup for me but I’m leaning towards another Poirier win. I fucking hope he wins. If McGregor wins we’ll never hear the end of it and the last fight will get chalked up as a fluke with the ‘Conor wasn’t motivated’ shite just becoming the accepted narrative forever. 

 

Gilbert Burns vs Wonderboy Thompson - An all babyface affair here. Bittersweet whatever the result. I was hoping to see Burns back in the win column after the loss to Usman but then he got matched up with Wonderboy and I don’t want him to lose either. Especially now when he’s on the cusp of what would surely be his last run at a title shot. A loss now might be it for him in terms of opportunities to get back in contention. 

Wonderboy on points for me. And I’ve got a feeling it’s gonna be fairly clear cut. Might be way off on that but unless Burns goes all out with the grappling here, which he hasn’t in a long time, I can’t see him getting much done on the feet with a striker like Thompson. He’s got some good power but I can’t see him connecting much in that kind of fight. I’m hoping Burns is coming with a grappling heavy gameplan this time. It’s the obvious route to try to take but there’s good reason for that. He’s a world class grappler and, while Wonderboy is tricky to take down because of his use of distance and movement, it’s preferable to standing and getting picked apart at range all night. Burns going back to his BJJ roots would make this much more interesting though. To see whose style wins out. I just see Burns having to stand for the bulk of this and I can’t see him living with Wonderboy in a fight that’s predominantly striking. 

 

Tai Tuivasa vs Greg Hardy - No secret where my allegiance lies here. I just hope this is over quick and not another one of the woman beater’s plodfests. 

Tuivasa by KO but I’m not exactly confident in it. Neither are anything special. I think Tuivasa is a bit better though, and I think he’s got a toughness about him that Hardy doesn’t have in him based on what we’ve seen so far. Tuivasa has his faults but you have to have some level of serious hardness to spar Mark Hunt on a regular basis. It’s a coin flip really though this. I’m 60/40 in favour of ‘Bam Bam’ but if it ends up as a 1 minute shootout, it’s anyone’s. Both hit hard. I just think Tuivasa is more likely to hold up when bombs start flying and if it goes past 3 minutes, he’s got no business or excuses to be losing to this arsehole really. One of the tougher tests of Hardy’s career but it’s certainly a better style matchup for him than Tybura was. We’ll see. Come on Tai. 

 

Irene Aldana vs Yana Kunitskaya - The fight I’m least fussed about by far. And if I’m gonna fall asleep and fuck my plan to watch the whole thing live, this’ll most likely be the fight that sends me into a slumber. 

I’ll go Aldana by decision. I’d have picked Aldana regardless but she missed weight by a few pounds and you never know what that means. People assume it’ll give her an advantage but it could also be indicative of her carrying an injury. Either way, Kunitskaya gets 30% of Aldana’s money. Which probably amounts to a fiver and a can of Monster. 

 

Sean O’Malley vs Kris Moutinho - You know what this is and what it’s meant to be. It’s been put together for the purposes of getting Suga Sean another highlight reel knockout win on PPV. There’s a reason they went with a complete newcomer over names already on the roster who were campaigning for the fight. And I don’t think it was all to do with guys not making 135 on short notice. Brian Kelleher was saying the other day that O’Malley’s team were up for fighting him at 145 but the UFC decided against it for some reason. They just want him winning. Make no mistake, this is meant to be a squash match. 

O’Malley by KO/TKO but I’d love to see Moutinho pull it off. The whole thing seems designed for him to be the sacrificial lamb. I felt bad for him at the weigh in as well, with all the pricks in the crowd booing him. O’Malley isn’t bad but I don’t think his talent matches the hype he gets in some circles. Plus he’s a right div. Whatever. I’d piss myself if Moutinho goes in and just lays him out. Not expecting it though. 

 

Carlos Condit vs Max Griffin - Not sure what to make of this but I like the way Condit’s talking and carrying himself going into this one. For the longest time he seemed to be almost sleepwalking through fights and even during fight week interviews he seemed to have his mind on things outside fighting at times. I think those couple of wins over Matt Brown and Court McGee have got the old juices flowing again a bit. He seems more up for this fight than I recall seeing him in a good while. That doesn’t necessarily mean much, regardless of his mindset I think it’s clear he’s lost a step anyway. I can’t picture any scenario where this 2021 version of Condit goes into a fight with one of the current top Welterweights and doesn’t get ragged about. But fights at this level are still competitive and winnable for him, I think. Griffin’s no contender but he’s decent, tough and coming off a big knockout win. The staredown at the weigh in was intense and you can tell they both really fancy the job tonight.

Condit points for me. I could see Griffin winning but purely on skills, I think Condit has the tools to outdo him in every area. Should be an entertaining fight either way. If Condit wins this I’d be happy to see him against the winner of that Diaz vs Lawler 2 fight they’re on about if possible. Not so much into a Condit vs Lawler rematch just because there’s no way they top their first fight. But if Diaz wins, I’d be up for Diaz vs Condit 2. And in a weird way, I actually think it’d probably be a better fight now as well with both winding down and without the pressure of the interim title and a shot at GSP that hung over the first fight. Anyway, yeah, war Condit. 

 

Niko Price vs Michel Pereira - I can’t wait for this. We’ve seen Pereira have those rare lacklustre fights before but I can’t see Niko’s style allowing for that. Price is such a come forward, attacking fighter that I think Pereira will be forced to return fire or he’ll just get steamrolled. Main event aside, this is the obvious frontrunner to steal the show. 

Rooting for Niko, feeling Pereira by highlight reel knockout for some reason. More of a hunch than anything really but I can see Price getting a bit too wild and aggressive in there and walking onto something nasty. I think he’ll be the more hittable of the two in the exchanges as well and that could end up being his undoing. If Price connects though it could be over in a flash. He’s dangerous from all angles as we’ve seen in the Randy Brown and James Vick fights when he knocked them both out from his back. 

 

Ryan Hall vs Ilia Topuria - Like we said earlier in the thread, a fascinating piece of matchmaking and a clash of styles I’m struggling to wrap my head around. It was my ‘one to watch’ but more for my pure curiosity to see how these two mesh in there than any expectations of a great fight. Don’t go in expecting a barnburner. It’s got a decent possibility of just descending into 15 minutes of Hall flopping to the mat every time Topuria steps to him, and looking for a leg lock that never comes. I’m so intrigued to see how they both approach this though. 

Probably the toughest fight to call on the entire card for me but I’ve got a feeling Topuria takes it by stoppage. Not entirely sure why but I think he might be the real deal and that combined with Hall being older, coming off a layoff and injuries and stuff, and facing what I think is probably the most difficult test he’s had in MMA so far, I think it’s a big ask. He’s saying ring rust isn’t real but still. Fighters say that until they lose, then they blame it on ring rust, don’t they Conor? It’s such a tricky one to even picture though. Fuck knows how the hell it plays out. Hall is weird enough and dangerous enough with those leg locks that I genuinely think he can beat anyone if he gets his game going. I won’t be at all surprised if Hall leaves with his hand raised and Topuria on a stretcher. But I think Topuria has enough skills in enough areas that I can see him getting the W one way or another. Could be an ugly points win if Hall just keeps dropping to his back but sod it, Topuria by stoppage. 
 

Full predictions…

Dustin Poirier by KO/TKO.

Wonderboy Thompson by Decision.

Tai Tuivasa by KO/TKO.

Irene Aldana by Decision.

Sean O’Malley by KO/TKO.

Carlos Condit by Decision.

Michel Pereira by KO/TKO.

Ilia Topuria by KO/TKO.

Dricus Du Plessis by Submission.

Jennifer Maia by Decision.

Omari Akhmedov by Decision.

Zhalgas Zhumagulov by Submission.

Alen Amedovski by Decision.

 

Same again please, Dustin 💎

Edited July 10, 2021 by wandshogun09