UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor

[FUM]

 

Having watched the conference again, I'm think Alvarez is going to win this via grapplefuck, finishing Conor once he is gassed. He doesn't seem arsed about putting on a show or impressing people, and looks like he'd happily settle for the big payday and comparatively easy win, going back to Philly and his family a hero.

Personally I felt since Conor joined the use he's been bad news for the sport, Conor and Ronda along with a lot of market from the UFC have turned the UFC from a place where fighters were ranked for how well they fight and perform to who can sell the most tickets and can trash talk.

 

I'd love to see Ronda and Conor to both feck off perminately, here is hoping the EA curse strikes again since UFC 2 is now on EA acces

Bad news for the sport? Conor and Ronda have changed the sport into one where they're getting mainstream coverage almost daily. You point about the rankings is nonsense, I don't agree that they're not followed, it's just not strictly always followed but generally the title shots go to the person who deserves a shot. UFC was always like this, it's nothing to do with Conor and Ronda. Brock got a title shot in his second fight which seems to have been forgotten by the UFC historians when they want to slag off Conor's impact.

[WeeAl]

I could definitely see Nunes beating Rousey. Though UFC desperately need Rousey to win in case she fucks off after a loss against Nunes. If she is only going to fight a couple more times after Nunes then it's bound to be a rematch against Holm and either another fight vs Meisha or else she'll chance her arm against Cyborg. Either way, the next time she loses I can't see her coming back after it.

[dopper]

To be honest though KK hasn't really done anything to make me root for her

Wearing that outfit she wore in that early advert for the event, walking through NYC in a mini skirt and knee-socks got me rooting for her. Bloody hell.

[ColinBollocks]

I thought Rousey was pure panto, last night. From the face to her storming off without uttering one word, it all seemed a plan. I thought it did the job too.

[WeeAl]

About to place a bet or two for tonight so what's everybody's final thoughts after the weigh ins and all the shenanigans of the week are over with?

 

I'm thinking of grouping a few of these together in different combinations:

 

Edgar on points

JJ on points

Khabib v Johnson to go the distance

Weidman to win

Woodley v Thompson to end in a KO/TKO

McGregor v Alvarez to end in a KO/TKO

 

All the money is coming in on McGregor, so the odds on the fight seem completely skewed towards taking value away from McGregor considering how close the fight really is.

 

I can't decide if the weight cut problems are going to help or hinder Alves, and haven't a clue on the Meisha Tate fight. She looked much better than at the 200 weigh ins and if her mind is in the same place as her body is then she should win. If not though it could be a bad night for her and she's priced up too short to take that chance I think.

[AdamTH17]

Probably going with an accumulator on: Chookagian, Muhammad, Natal, Edgar, Woodley and JJ.

 

Then I'll lump something on Alvarez to cheer me up if he beats Conor

[TildeGuy~!]

I'm still contemplating..

 

I was thinking about a 5 fold earlier of Weidman, JJ, Thompson, Khabib and McGregor

 

Currently returns £65 off a tenner

[wandshogun09]

I've noticed a few mentions of Miesha looking bad at the weigh in/distracted in the fight at UFC 200.

 

I don't really get the 'distracted in the fight' bit. She just got crushed early by a scary fast starter. Nunes can do that to a lot of women. And probably men too. And the fight lasted 3 minutes. She didn't have chance to be distracted as she was eating strikes from the off. I think it was just a case of her being caught cold and a fresh Nunes not giving her chance to recover.

 

And did she look bad at the weigh in?

 

 

High standards in here if that's looking bad.

 

 

Edit - OK, I think I know what you mean about the weigh in. That picture is from the after the fact bollocks weigh in where she's rehydrated. The 'proper' weigh in pics show her looking a bit rough and having to bust out the towel etc.

[Fox Piss]

Conor v Alverez - Gotta land that left hand clean in the first two rounds to get rid off Edward. 

Woodley v Thompson -  Not too happy about this but my gut says Woodley gets it done somehow. Early KO again. Woodley with the belt is just feeling right at this moment. 

JJ V KK - Karoline seems to be 6/7 out of 10 at everything whilst JJ busy striking (real lack off power though) should see her get three 49-46 cards.

Like Muhammed so hoping for a win there. Somethings not right with Weidman so Romero to take two rounds and win. 

Johnson or Pennington to score the upset!

[Fox Piss]

The biggest tell with Misha at 200 is without a doubt her walk in. You'd struggle to find somebody look more distracted in UFC history. She looked to be daydreaming the entire thing. 

[wandshogun09]

Piss - I can't really remember Tate's entrance at 200. Either way she got royally fucked up.

 

Predictions...

 

 

Alvarez vs McGregor is going to be fantastic. Probably. Unless Alvarez decides to just grind it out like he did in the Pettis fight. It should be good though. The thinking has been that 155 is the perfect weight class for McGregor. The style is interesting because of Alvarez's wrestling and cardio, two things that have been question marks on Conor. And also because of his toughness and ability to bounce back from being hurt, will he be able to weather the McGregor storm? It's a fascinating clash of two very different styles.

 

Alvarez by decision for me. I could see McGregor catching him early and hurting him. If that happens then I fancy him to finish it. Despite Eddie's recovery powers, I just think McGregor's finishing instincts are too strong. But I don't know, ever since the fight was booked I've not been able to shake the thought that Alvarez is winning this. I think there'll be some dicey moments but ultimately Eddie will take it on points.

 

 

Woodley vs Thompson I'm almost 50/50 on. Such a hard fight to predict. There seems to be this belief that Wonderboy's just going to keep winning and smashing fools but, like I've said a few times in this thread, I've got my doubts. He hasn't really answered the grappling question for me yet and Woodley has the wrestling background and physical strength to possibly exploit that. Wonderboy's only really faced two good wrestlers in his UFC stint - Johny Hendricks and Jake Ellenberger. But both were in shit form and career slumps when Thompson fought them and the fights didn't last long enough for the grappling to become a factor. This could be the fight where it's put to the test. Even on the feet I wouldn't write Woodley off. He's nowhere near the level of striking Thompson is but he's powerful and fast and closes the distance very quickly. Could be a tricky one for Wonderboy to time.

 

I really hope I'm wrong but I'm thinking Woodley by TKO, probably via ground and pound, around the 3rd.

 

 

Jedrzejczyk vs Kowalkiewicz is another tough call, mostly because I still don't think we've seen enough of Kowalkiewicz yet. From what we have seen though, I'm not convinced. She's good but I just don't see anything in her game that she's better than JJ at. And there's nothing in her style which I think troubles JJ. Her striking isn't as good as Joanna's and I don't think her takedowns are strong enough to put her on her back. KK seems to have a pretty tidy clinch game and she looked good using that in the Namajunas fight but I see her getting fucked up if she tries that in this one.

 

Jedrzejczyk, probably on points but maybe a late TKO after an accumulation of relentless assault. I like Kowalkiewicz, I just don't see her giving Jedrzejczyk too much bother. It'll be fun to watch regardless. Jedrzejczyk is kind of like Gennady Golovkin for me, in that even though her fights are usually very one sided, they're still exciting.

 

 

Weidman vs Romero is a mystery. There's so many ways I could see this going. On paper, Romero has the stronger wrestling background so you'd think he'd hold an edge there. But he's got such a weird style and his movement is so unique that he sometimes leaves himself in vulnerable positions. He's been taken down in fights because of this before and also tagged with strikes. It's part of what makes him so great to watch, you never know what's going to happen next. Weidman's got the hometown advantage and probably a more well rounded game. But he's more of a traditional MMA fighter, Romero's style could throw him off. There's also the potential that Weidman could feel the pressure of coming off his first loss and fighting in NY.

 

It's a funny one. I can't wait to see how this one plays out. Gut feeling is telling me Weidman by TKO but a gut feeling is all it is. I'd love to see Romero smash him though. And I like Weidman a lot. Romero's my man at 185 though.

 

 

Tate vs Pennington should be a lively PPV opener. These two don't do boring and I can't envision a scenario for this fight where they have a stinker. Chances are, two rights won't make a wrong. Really, Miesha should win this fairly comfy. She's got the experience edge and she's used to operating at a much higher level than Pennington. You just never know though. Miesha does love making hard work of a fight. Even in her best wins she often got dropped or had to claw a win back from a deficit. And Rocky's a tough cookie. Shit record but she's a scrapper.

 

I'll go with logic though, Tate by sub I'm thinking.

 

 

Edgar vs Stephens could well steal the show. I don't think it's going to be that competitive though myself. I think Frankie is just way superior. The only thing Stephens has over Edgar is power. Everything else - wrestling, boxing technique, speed, pace, movement, footwork, head movement, submissions, cardio, big fight experience etc etc - it's all Frankie. I could certainly see Stephens hurting Edgar, but I think Edgar's too tough and too calm under pressure and he'll get through whatever Stephens throws at him.

 

Edgar points. Can't see any way Stephens wins a decision and he's not submitting Edgar. So his only way to win, IMO, is to knock Edgar out. I just don't see it happening. And I hope it doesn't. Stephens is a fucking knuckleheaded wanker and I hope Frankie embarrasses him.

 

 

Nurmagomedov vs Johnson, I just can't see past Khabib. I don't think he's unbeatable like some seem to make out but I don't think Johnson is the man to take his 0. Yeah, Johnson looked like a beast against Poirier but this is a completely different style of fight. You don't get much more opposite in styles than Nurmagomedov and Poirier. The Poirier fight was one Johnson was able to shine in and use his dangerous standup. I'm not sure he'll get many opportunities to do the same tonight.

 

Khabib by decision. Just can't see any other result. To me Johnson has no more than a punchers chance. He's going to have very short windows of time to land his shots and what's the chances of one of them being a KO strike? Not good. He's got a wrestling background so maybe that makes things a bit more interesting but Johnson winning this...I just don't see it.

 

 

Natal vs Boetsch, I'm going with Boetsch. Haven't given this fight much thought so I'm kind of just going with what I want to happen. Natal has a bit of an awkward style on the feet and if he can make it a grappling match he should do well. But I think Boetsch has enough that he'll be able to keep it on the feet and I'm going Boetsch by TKO, fuck it.

 

 

Luque vs Muhammad I'm not sure about. I don't recall seeing Luque fight. He's 3-0 in the UFC with 3 finishes. I've enjoyed Belal Muhammad's UFC fights so far, especially his war with Alan Jouban in July. Going in dark but I'll say Muhammad by decision.

 

 

I can't wait for Miller vs Alves. I feel like I'm repeating myself but again a very difficult one to call. The fact Alves didn't make weight could mean he had a rough cut or even carrying an injury. I don't think he's the type who'd deliberately come in heavy to have an advantage. He looked gutted at the weigh in. And he loses 20% of his money. Once the cage door shuts though, it's going to be a wild fight. Bit of a tossup but I'm fancying a Miller win for some reason. Miller on points. I've got a feeling there might be more to Alves' weight miss and if he's injured or feeling the effects of a shitty cut, Miller's the kind of relentless bastard you don't want to be in there with.

 

 

Carmouche vs Chookagian, I'm liking Chookagian. Carmouche hasn't fought in about 18 months and Chookagian is undefeated, bigger, has a strong striking game and is a BJJ brown belt under Renzo Gracie. I'm having Chookagian by submission. Carmouche is always game but I think the layoff coupled with Chookagian's strengths means she's probably going to struggle.

 

Alvarez by decision

Woodley by KO/TKO

Jedrzejczyk by decision

Weidman by KO/TKO

Tate by submission

Edgar by decision

Nurmagomedov by decision

Boetsch by KO/TKO

Muhammad by decision

Miller by decision

Chookagian by submission

[Philjax]

You gotta be having a quid on that Wand

[ColinBollocks]

I'm going with a convincing Alvarez win. 1st or early in the 2nd stoppage. The biggest reason for me thinking it's a battering is due to how he ran through a monster in RDA in quick time. Plus, I have no idea if McGregor has improved enough on the ground to survive that. McGregor has his left hand, but I reckon Mark Henry will again mould Alvarez into a human tornado.

 

I fancy Wonderboy in the co main. Decision or late KO.

 

JJ changing camps for this fight is an interesting element in this fight. She's incredible but surely her time is up? Nobody retains these days.

 

I can't wait for Weidman v Romero. Mainly because it's the hardest fight to pick. I love Weidman, but I fancy a Romero upset here. I expect to be wrong.

 

Surely Tate gets back on track? If she loses this one then something is definite up. You can very well argue she's on the slide. Tate via decision.

 

Can't be arsed doing the undercard, but Khabib better win.

[AdamTH17]

McGregor def Alvarez via Round 2 TKO

Woodley def Wonderboy via Round 2 TKO

JJ def Karolina via Unanimous Decision

Weidman def Romero via Round 3 TKO

Tate def Pennington via Unanimous Decision

 

Edgar def Stephens via Unanimous Decision

Johnson def Khabib via Round 2 TKO

Natal def Boetsch via Split Decision

Muhammad def Luque via Round 3 TKO

 

Miller def Alves via Round 1 TKO

Chookagian def Carmouche via Round 1 Submission

 

Chatting out my arse there for some of the prelim predictions, but that's what I'll roll with. Keep changing my mind on those last two fights.

[evets_backwards]

McGregor def Alvarez via Round 3 TKO

Wonderboy def Woodley via Split Decision

JJ def Karolina via Round 4 TKO

Weidman def Romero via Round 3 TKO

Tate def Pennington via Round 2 Sub

 

Edgar def Stephens via Unanimous Decision

Khabib def. Johnson via Round 2 Sub

Boetsch def. Natal via 1st Round TKO

Muhammad def Luque via Unanimous Decision

 

Miller def Alves via Unanimous Decision

Chookagian def Carmouche via Round 2 Submission