Indyref 2

[jazzygeofferz]

So it looks like Nicola Sturgeon is trying to get the ball rolling again on Scottish Indeoendence. Don't call him Boris has already said we need to be focussing on making the economy strong, and this isn't the time for something like this. The proposed date is the 19th of c 2023.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-61968607

Edited June 29, 2022 by jazzygeofferz

[FelatioLips]

Good luck to them. I wouldn’t want anything to do with us at the minute either.

[Hannibal Scorch]

I don't think many of us really want it to happen, but who wants to be associated with England right now? i don't

 

[Guest]

I don't mind paying a bit more for my Irn Bru bars and Oor Wullie annuals, and my Cheese & Onion Tayto for that matter, if it means Johnson goes down in history as the PM who drove away half his country.

[David]

I don't think it'll actually happen, not on the date Sturgeon is claiming. Wasn't there a whole process behind the last one? If I recall correctly the UK government have to also agree and be part of the decision, and it took over a year from them making that announcement to the actual date being set.

The cynic in me thinks that the recent turn in the Scottish media against the SNP government has played a part here, and them throwing out a date for a vote is aimed at glossing over the issues and focusing on independence, which is always a crowd-pleaser north of the border.

It's a no-lose situation really. The SNP get to change the narrative, get their public onside, and when the UK government effectively says "well hang on a minute, you can't just go announcing a date without consulting with the rest of us" Sturgeon can point to the evil London establishment trying to do the poor Scottish population wrong, and prevent us from being the next Denmark/Estonia/Iceland/Norway (insert random prosperous Scandinavian country here.)

That's before we even look at the financial ramifications. Remember when all the chat was about the independence sums working out just fine because oil "would be" worth $110 a barrel?

Sure, those prices may jump for a while due to the Ukraine/Russia carry-on, but those numbers would be artificial and short-term. What is the average over the past few years since the last referendum? $75 or so at it's peak in 2018? Maybe someone else can confirm or deny that.

And it's weirdly assumed that Scotland would just "rejoin" the EU, as if it's as easy as restarting a lapsed gym membership. Would Scotland meet the EU criteria for joining? Back in March 2020 the sceptical Scot site came to the following conclusion:

"At the core of this national debate must be the economy and whether it can be brought to a position where Scotland can and will meet the criteria for accession if it so wishes. So far, it does not meet those economic criteria in their entirety – notably monetary policy as well as exchange rate, as set out in Chapter 17 – but the true state of the economy if and when the Scottish government embarks upon the EU accession process may be more favourable then."

Is the financial landscape improved on that particular time? Especially with the fallout of Covid and the current state of play with inflation? I'd be surprised if it was.

Again, none of this has really been addressed in the SNP's booklets it has been releasing on the matter. Not to the level that I'd feel comfortable voting in favour, anyway.

 

[SpiritOfTheForest]

If it goes ahead I'll be flying home specifically to vote. I'm one of those who can't stand the SNP but has been a lifelong believer in Independence and self-determination so I have no hesitation in voting Yes. There are a distressing number of people who will vote No simply because they don't like the SNP but in an independent Scotland it stands to reason that the SNP will no longer exist in its current form and break off into a number of different parties. SNP will get us there and we will then be free to choose whatever train we deem best to take us to the next destination on our onward journey. 

[Guest]

I was yes in 2014, but I’ll be no now. SNP are doing a terrible job and getting away with it year on year on things like health and education. They say they would split if successful, but I can’t see it. They are not the party they were pre 2014, full of opportunists.

Nothing in the key issues in 2014 have been addressed in the last 8 Years either. I think as a society we would be better split from England and it’s ever far right leanings, but economically this is looking a disaster from what we have seen from Brexit. 

[Loki]

If they do hold a referendum it won’t have the backing of Westminster and therefore will be meaningless.  Unionists should probably boycott it in that case just to make it clear it’s unofficial.

 This very much feels like performative politics to paper over the SNP’s internal issues and flagging momentum.  The polls suggest Yes would comfortably lose a legit vote anyway.

Scotland I think has wised up to the reality that going it alone would be an economic disaster that no amount of patriotism would protect them from.  Being an even smaller fish in Europe at a time of increased financial difficulty and war on the continent, just isn’t as attractive.

[Factotum]

1 minute ago, Loki said:

If they do hold a referendum it won’t have the backing of Westminster and therefore will be meaningless.  Unionists should probably boycott it in that case just to make it clear it’s unofficial.

 This very much feels like performative politics to paper over the SNP’s internal issues and flagging momentum.  The polls suggest Yes would comfortably lose a legit vote anyway.

Yes first two points are correct. The Supreme Court will not gran them this. Its all show, much like everything Sturgeon does.

By the way, that's not me either way on Independence, I just think she's utterly woeful as First Minister.

Obviously she wants to try and push this through as soon as she can given Johnson is probably the biggest thing they have to rally against, but I would strongly suspect, given the polls, that the No vote would win.

[Carbomb]

I think I might understand the economic argument for staying in the union more if the rest of the UK didn't seem so dead-set on making this place a basket-case anyway.

[David]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

If they do hold a referendum it won’t have the backing of Westminster and therefore will be meaningless.  Unionists should probably boycott it in that case just to make it clear it’s unofficial.

This very much feels like performative politics to paper over the SNP’s internal issues and flagging momentum.  The polls suggest Yes would comfortably lose a legit vote anyway.

Scotland I think has wised up to the reality that going it alone would be an economic disaster that no amount of patriotism would protect them from.  Being an even smaller fish in Europe at a time of increased financial difficulty and war on the continent, just isn’t as attractive.

The part in bold is how I feel also. As Louch mentions, they've done a terrible job of running the country with the powers they do have, and there's nothing to suggest that they would fare any better if given more powers.

I get what SOTF is saying about the SNP basically having no reason to exist post-independence, but those individuals who have done a shit job aren't going to suddenly go away or suddenly become better administrators.

1 hour ago, Carbomb said:

I think I might understand the economic argument for staying in the union more if the rest of the UK didn't seem so dead-set on making this place a basket-case anyway.

Yeah, but things change. It all works in cycles, doesn't it? Labour to Conservative, Conservative to Labour. 

Once we're out, we're out. And the financial reality simply doesn't make for encouraging reading. As much as it may pain me to say that.

[Carbomb]

30 minutes ago, David said:

Yeah, but things change. It all works in cycles, doesn't it? Labour to Conservative, Conservative to Labour. 

Once we're out, we're out. And the financial reality simply doesn't make for encouraging reading. As much as it may pain me to say that.

As to the economic barriers, are they simply to joining the EU? Or do they affect EFTA/EEA? 

Ultimately, I guess it comes down to which union Scotland feels is more beneficial joining, or less harmful to be part of. At least it's still part of the Commonwealth, but I don't know how much benefit that is to any country these days.

[Keith Houchen]

1 hour ago, Carbomb said:

As to the economic barriers, are they simply to joining the EU? Or do they affect EFTA/EEA? 

I thought most of the issues affected would be covered by BOFA, but not sure if it’s been applied in a similar scenario. 

[69MeDon]

I hope it happens mostly because I will enjoy the chaos of the Tories losing Scotland.

[Carbomb]

10 minutes ago, 69MeDon said:

I hope it happens mostly because I will enjoy the chaos of the Conservative & Unionist Party losing Scotland.

Fixed.