d-d-d-dAz Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 (edited) There is something interesting happening in New Hampshire. Not with the Republicans, but with the Democrats... Dean Phillips is surging, and could end up getting a significant portion of the Primary vote. In polls, he's gone from 2% to 28% in a month and is really making a late charge. He won't win, Biden will on a write-in, but his plan is just to start the debate about whether another option is needed and to force bigger names into the race. Someone shared the below video with me recently, and its stunning how much he's aged in just the last 3 years. I'm getting less and less convinced he can win against Trump. Trump is beginning to really nail his messaging, and in particular I think the stuff about ending the Ukraine war, calming down Israel and trying to open up constructive negotiations with Russia et al will play well. The below is still obviously mad in parts, but by his standards I think it's one of the best interviews he's ever done  Edited January 20 by d-d-d-dAz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members Sergio Mendacious Posted January 20 Paid Members Share Posted January 20 That’s interesting , which polls? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Chest Rockwell Posted January 20 Moderators Share Posted January 20 Fucking hell they're both just so ancient. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loki Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Funny, Biden looks and sounds better than he often does in that video.  Both of them have good and bad days as you'd expect from OAPs.  But Biden often looks really, really old even if he's making sense.  Whereas Trump looks more energetic mainly, but makes really worrying  mistakes, like confusing Obama and Biden for about half an hour of one of his rant/speeches.  Or yesterday confusing Pelosi and Nikki Haley.  He's not all there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
d-d-d-dAz Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 (edited) 9 hours ago, Loki said: Funny, Biden looks and sounds better than he often does in that video.  Both of them have good and bad days as you'd expect from OAPs.  But Biden often looks really, really old even if he's making sense.  Whereas Trump looks more energetic mainly, but makes really worrying  mistakes, like confusing Obama and Biden for about half an hour of one of his rant/speeches.  Or yesterday confusing Pelosi and Nikki Haley.  He's not all there. Sorry, that video of Biden is before the last election, that was my point. He's declined so much. They're both such flawed candidates, but Trump has a weird ageless quality to him. I think because he's so odd and not comparable to other humans that it's hard to benchmark him. Biden on the other hand has that reached that point in his decline where he can't even keep his mouth closed whilst he's thinking. The below is a recent video of Biden, and honestly I just feel bad for the bloke. He must be knackered. That said, I think in retrospect he'll be judged harshly for not using a one term Presidency to elevate heirs and not just convince himself he's the only guy who can beat Trump.  The below article is interesting on Phillips and the type of support hes getting. https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbushard/2024/01/19/andrew-yang-and-billionaire-ackman-throw-weight-behind-longshot-democrat-dean-phillips-heres-who-else-supports-him/ It's interesting. I think the New Hampshire surge, as it were, may be down to influencer politics - ie the sway voices like Yang, the OpenAI guys etc have in a college town - and even with a decent showing people may not join the race, but I definitely think its a discussion the Democrats should be having. Edited January 21 by d-d-d-dAz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Chest Rockwell Posted January 21 Moderators Share Posted January 21 (edited) 55 minutes ago, d-d-d-dAz said: That said, I think in retrospect he'll be judged harshly for not using a one term Presidency to elevate heirs and not just convince himself he's the only guy who can beat Trump. The level of hubris / inertia the democrats maintain in the face of continual failures is really quite something. Edited January 21 by Chest Rockwell Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedRooster Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 There’s a decent article on The Conversation looking at the unreliability of January polls. As far as Trump goes, I honestly believe it’s less about the person and more about what he represents. If you presented an individual identical Trump, minus the rhetoric, celebrity and politics, the vast majority of Trump supporters would recognise that they are a clown. But Trump represents right wing populism, and for whatever reason that is on the rise globally. Trump also benefited from his own celebrity - I don’t think President Trump happens without The Apprentice, and the distortion of who he really is that was presented by that show.  Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
d-d-d-dAz Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 (edited) The thing to remember about Trump is, when you peel away all the bluster and bullshit, average household incomes were up 10% over the course of his Presidency and he was absolutely brilliant in not just telling everyone about it, but also claiming complete personal ownership of that rise. Despite the macro economy rebounding brilliantly under Biden, and more jobs created than under any other President, its both easily explained away by COVID (of course more jobs have been created as so many needed to be filled once the country opened up) and actual household incomes have stagnated. Couple that with Trump owning immigration, the major electoral issue affecting most developed countries, and actually you can understand why he's a compelling candidate. To circle back, Biden needed to use his Presidency to elevate serious Democrat contenders who could take his place, and could counter Trump's ownership of the two key issues with a message of youth and dynamism. In short, someone call for Pete Buttigieg. Edited January 21 by d-d-d-dAz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members Lion_of_the_Midlands Posted January 21 Paid Members Share Posted January 21 15 minutes ago, d-d-d-dAz said: Couple that with Trump owning immigration, the major electoral issue affecting most developed countries, and actually you can understand why he's a compelling candidate. As you say D-D-D-Darren immigration is a big issue, but what we forget a little bit in this country because its not an issue like it is in the US is abortion. This will be the first presidential election since Roe v Wade was overturned so its going to be bigger than ever this time around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedRooster Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 21 minutes ago, d-d-d-dAz said: The thing to remember about Trump is, when you peel away all the bluster and bullshit, average household incomes were up 10% over the course of his Presidency and he was absolutely brilliant in not just telling everyone about it, but also claiming complete personal ownership of that rise. The Tories could make similar claims. The question is, I guess, did the majority of people feel that rise? I don’t know the answer to that question, but it’s not necessarily as powerful a claim as all that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
d-d-d-dAz Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 (edited) 18 minutes ago, RedRooster said: The Tories could make similar claims. The question is, I guess, did the majority of people feel that rise? I don’t know the answer to that question, but it’s not necessarily as powerful a claim as all that. In the US they either felt it, or felt they felt it because of Trumps comms on the issue. Regularly, across the spectrum, ~70% of people say the economy was better under Trump and they themselves were better off. An election fought on the economy is won by Trump, all ends up. Its why Biden's team is focusing on the threat to democracy, and some are starting to worry that when push comes to shove most apolitical people in 2024 would vote for a 10% increase in household income over a regularly say over how the country is run. And, very briefly on the Tories, if you use household income as the metric, then that has been stagnant in the UK for around 15 years. It is very different when you get into it. The overall increase in household income under the Trump government was pronounced and did stand out compared to other Western economies. That's his swing issue, then he has immigration and - per @Lion_of_the_Midlands - abortion and a more Conservative judiciary which he uses to appeal to the right and evangelicals. If Biden doesn't have a stronger story than threat to democracy - and I appreciate its ludicrous to not consider that a strong story, but here we are - then he's relying solely on people's personal dislike of Trump and I don't know that that can win. He won very marginally in 2020, and it'd be surprising if he could increase that vote as an incumbent. Edited January 21 by d-d-d-dAz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperBacon Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 DeSantis has shit it then. Â Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westlondonmist Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Not surprised, not going to beat Trump, endorsing Trump and will aim to get the nod from him in 2028. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members Lion_of_the_Midlands Posted January 21 Paid Members Share Posted January 21 1 hour ago, westlondonmist said: Not surprised, not going to beat Trump, endorsing Trump and will aim to get the nod from him in 2028. I'm not sure about that misty. DeSantis has shown a staggering ineptitude on the campaign trail. He isn't likeable, has no interpersonal skills, and generally doesn't seem to have what it takes for a national campaign. He is term limited as governor of Florida, but you'd imagine a possible Senatorial run could be next as he's not going to want to go back to the House. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
d-d-d-dAz Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 This is pretty good if you have a long commute or tricky toilet planned, and want to read about America's fatigue-ridden backsliding into a Trump sequel;Â https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/can-joe-biden-win-2024-presidential-election-anti-trump-coalition.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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