Ukraine / Russian War

[SuperBacon]

Progozhin on Monday:

 

[The King Of Swing]

30 minutes ago, FelatioLips said:

Seems like staging a coup against Putin isn’t a decision you’d want to back down on. What does he expect will happen now?

Yeah he's completely fucked now.

[Carbomb]

6 hours ago, Gay as FOOK said:

Wagner Group sound like the set of villains for the next Metal Gear Solid. 

Wagner's the name of the main villain in Front Mission 4 - he's a Russian double-agent working the EC's special forces

[METAL ON METAL]

In what I’m sure is a total coincidence, Russian media are reporting that Prigozhin  and nine others (including other high-ranking Wagner officials) have been killed in a plane crash just outside of Moscow.

What are the odds…

[Tim Healys Chutney Spoon]

Just surprised it wasn't out of an office/hotel window,....

[Merzbow]

Illya Kyva, the former leader of the Ukrainian Socialist Party has been shot dead in Moscow by Ukrainian assassins. He was also pretty high ranking in Right Sector before that so what the hell were his views?

[BigJag]

Where is the best place to find out about the current state of play in the Ukraine/Russia war? I've noticed that Putin is over in the UAE. Or was there very recently. He was afforded quite the reception.

[Loki]

It's a total stalemate.  Neither side is going to be able to make any more significant gains, unless the US withdraws its support of Ukraine, in which case I suspect they'll slowly lose territory.

The cold reality is that in all likelihood some sort of deal will have to be made which codifies the current state of play, with Russia retaining the east and Crimea.

[Keith Houchen]

7 minutes ago, Loki said:

unless the US withdraws its support of Ukraine,

 Latest aid package has been blocked, it also includes aid for Israel though and I can’t see that being blocked for long. 

[BigJag]

I'm a bit confused by the strange dichotomy(hope that's the right word) between the two prominent wars happening in the world currently.

Russia and Ukraine appear to have an involvement in both wars.

As far as I'm aware Russia are seen as the aggressor in the Russia Ukraine war. Since that war began, there have been accusations of Nazism in Ukraine.

With the Israeli Palestine "war". Israel have been accused of Zionism/Nazism. Russia are being presented as a voice of reason. I'm reading that a lot of the Israeli hierarchy draws it's influence from Ukraine, and the surrounding regions.

How can the two wars and the participants be perceived so differently? 

I haven't even mentioned the involvement of western nations. USA,UK, France, Germany, are all involved in both Wars. The involvement is viewed drastically differently.

I'd say that most in the West would support Ukraine over Russia. Yet with Israel Palestine, the empathy seems lies with Palestine. 

International politics is very confusing.

Edited December 30, 2023 by BigJag

[Keith Houchen]

4 minutes ago, BigJag said:

there have been accusations of Nazism in Ukraine.

Not accusations, they literally have a battalion for Nazis in their army. 
 

 

5 minutes ago, BigJag said:

Russia are being presented as a voice of reason

Are they? By whom?

[d-d-d-dAz]

10 minutes ago, BigJag said:

I'm a bit confused by the strange dichotomy(hope that's the right word) between the two prominent wars happening in the world currently.

Russia and Ukraine appear to have an involvement in both wars.

As far as I'm aware Russia are seen as the aggressor in the Russia Ukraine war. Since that war began, there have been accusations of Nazism in Ukraine.

With the Israeli Palestine "war". Israel have been accused of Zionism/Nazism. Russia are being presented as a voice of reason. I'm reading that a lot of the Israeli hierarchy draws it's influence from Ukraine, and the surrounding regions.

How can the two wars and the participants be perceived so differently? 

I haven't even mentioned the involvement of western nations. USA,UK, France, Germany, are all involved in both Wars. The involvement is viewed drastically differently.

I'd say that most in the West would support Ukraine over Russia. Yet with Israel Palestine, the empathy seems lies with Palestine. 

International politics is very confusing.

Because the real conflict in International politics is between the great powers, and any conflict 'below' that is filtered through the prism of which great power you're aligned with.

Arguably post-WW2 and Breton Woods, but unquestionably post-Cold War, we've lived in a world system defined by US hegemony; post 9/11 and War on Terror we've slowly moved towards a multi-polar world order with the original BRIC bloc starting to establish themselves as competitors or would-be competitors to the US (not to mention the increasingly international UAE).

All that is to say, more and more we'll be exposed to alternative narratives as the West's ability to set the narrative is increasingly challenged.

So Russia v Ukraine is evil Russia if you're on TEAM US/EU; Nazi Ukraine if you're TEAM RUSSIA/CHINA; none of our business but don't let the US benefit from any fallout if you're TEAM INDIA/MIDDLE EAST/BRAZIL.

Israel/Palestine is complicated by a bunch of reasons. A big one is how freeing Palestine has become a raison d'etre for many on the left worldwide so it means you get more compassion from the West than you'd maybe expect. But, if you filter out social media you'd see a West that was still broadly supportive of Israel (even if Netanyahu is doing his absolute best to break that support). Its also slightly messier than other conflicts as it creates a slight issue for Russia/China as they don't want to be too publicly supportive of separatists, so they tend to just recast the issue as the EVIL AMERICANS influencing events from abroad.

Israel/Palestine is just the biggest, most conplicated mess BUT countries still find their position in relation to the position of the great power they're aligned with. 

It's actually a rule in the UK foreign office for UN votes, and presumably other international institutions, to find out what the Americans are doing and do that. And if for whatever reason you can't do that, abstain. But never contradict the Americans.

The one time officials went against that was in the early noughties I think, on this same issue which led to a ceasefire. I read about it recently but struggling to find it now.

But yeah, follow the great powers and you can usually track international relations that bit easier.

[BigJag]

@Keith Houchen I was trying to refer to the way Russia are playing the gallery. They've positioned themselves as critical of Israel. Thinking about it. That does carry over from their actions in the Russia Ukraine war. Perception in the middle East is favourable to Russia. In the West quite the opposite.

@d-d-d-dAz thanks for deciphering my musings and explaining everything so well.

[SuperBacon]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/16/russian-activist-and-putin-critic-alexei-navalny-dies-in-prison

Prominent Putin critic dies in prison. Shock.

Also, there are lots of plans being made for Ukrainian communities in the UK to commemorate the second anniversary of the invasion by Russia, so might be worth seeing what your local councils etc are doing. That date is 24.02. 

Been doing a lot more work with Ukrainian guests recently and it always amazes me how strong, determined and brave they are, as are all people fleeing war and persecution. 

 

[Loki]

Sadly, the clock may almost have run out for the Ukrainians in their bid to drive Russia out of the country.  The Republicans, now firmly infiltrated by Russian money, aren't going to allow any more aid to Ukraine unless they can bypass the House, and Trump's made it clear he'll not oppose Putin internationally.

They have between now and the US elections to somehow hold the Russians at bay, and then they may have to sue for peace and give up lost territory.  Without US support they can't continue.