General politics discussion thread

[Loki]

Despite their relatively large number of idiots, I'm really enjoying the rise of UKIP and their change into a proper, professional political party.

 

I'm going to assume you've not seen the news over the last week then. Even Roger Helmer was being dragged over the coals for his rape apologism (real word?)

 

I have, that's why I said it. They're getting a lot more coverage, and so their weirdos are going to be exposed, and as new blood gets recruited they'll get forced out. They're looking to sweep a good result in the Europeans, and they've already made serious inroads into local councils. Make no mistake, they're transitioning from a fringe party to one that wields actual influence.

 

Conservative MPs often say similar shit all the time as well. Every party has its lunatic fringe. Just UKIP's at the moment is pretty huge

[JNLister]

If you want to read really nerdy analysis of UKIP's problems with the electoral system: http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/Analysis_UKIP.html

 

It looks as if there most likely places to win seats (and that's a comparative term) are rural parts of Cornwall and the middle of Devon. That seems to be because those seats are usually contests between Conservative (traditional farmers, self-sufficient) and Liberals (fuck you, the man) and you could get cases of both coalition parties taking a hit and UKIP sneaking through into first.

 

The big problem with the "UKIP as kingmakers" theory is that even if they got enough MPs to make a coalition viable (and that's more limited given they'll almost certainly only work with the Conservatives) is that it would be highly unlikely you could rely on them to consistently vote together and follow a party whip.

 

The German elections this weekend look potentially bizarre. On current opinion polls, if you leave out the extremists that none of the biggest parties would work with, it's almost dead on 44% each for the groupings of mainstream left and mainstream right parties. There's actually talk that the only genuinely viable coalition might be the equivalent of Labour and the Conservatives.

Edited September 21, 2013 by JNLister

[Devon Malcolm]

I'd be willing to put 50 quid on UKIP winning absolutely no seats at the next general election.

[JNLister]

I'd be willing to put 50 quid on UKIP winning absolutely no seats at the next general election.

 

Currently hovering between 4/7 and 4/5.

 

Interesting but counterintuitive point made on This Week, erm, this week, is that you can argue that the Lib Dems are actually the party with the best odds of being in government after the next election.

 

Interesting and not quite counter-, but certainly not intuitive point made by a political betting analyst recently -- the way the boundaries are set up means there's onloy a very tiny margin where Labour can get the most votes but not get a majority. In other words, even if they are hoping for the possibility of Labour being the biggest party but needing a coalition, the Lib Dems really need the Conservatives to get the most votes if they want to get back in.

Edited September 21, 2013 by JNLister

[hallicks]

I'd be willing to put 50 quid on UKIP winning absolutely no seats at the next general election.

 

Currently hovering between 4/7 and 4/5.

 

Interesting but counterintuitive point made on This Week, erm, this week, is that you can argue that the Lib Dems are actually the party with the best odds of being in government after the next election.

 

Interesting and not quite counter-, but certainly not intuitive point made by a political betting analyst recently -- the way the boundaries are set up means there's onloy a very tiny margin where Labour can get the most votes but not get a majority. In other words, even if they are hoping for the possibility of Labour being the biggest party but needing a coalition, the Lib Dems really need the Conservatives to get the most votes if they want to get back in.

 

I thought the Lib Dems were fucked after making the coalition and having to renege on a shitload of their manifesto promises? When you say "in government", do you mean in another coalition arrangement? As much as it pains me, I think the Tories are more likely to win an outright majority next time around. It still seems a bit ridiculous to me that they weren't able to properly oust Labour last time out.

 

When's the next general election likely? Will Cameron push it to 2015 in the hope that Scotland expunges itself in 2014 so he can sweep to victory without the pesky Scottish Labour seats holding him back?

[Up Chuck]

Despite their relatively large number of idiots, I'm really enjoying the rise of UKIP and their change into a proper, professional political party.

 

I'm going to assume you've not seen the news over the last week then. Even Roger Helmer was being dragged over the coals for his rape apologism (real word?)

 

Out of interest, because I must've missed something, why "even" Roger Helmer? As far as I was aware, he's been an idiotic bigot since forever.

[JNLister]

I'd be willing to put 50 quid on UKIP winning absolutely no seats at the next general election.

 

Currently hovering between 4/7 and 4/5.

 

Interesting but counterintuitive point made on This Week, erm, this week, is that you can argue that the Lib Dems are actually the party with the best odds of being in government after the next election.

 

Interesting and not quite counter-, but certainly not intuitive point made by a political betting analyst recently -- the way the boundaries are set up means there's onloy a very tiny margin where Labour can get the most votes but not get a majority. In other words, even if they are hoping for the possibility of Labour being the biggest party but needing a coalition, the Lib Dems really need the Conservatives to get the most votes if they want to get back in.

 

I thought the Lib Dems were fucked after making the coalition and having to renege on a shitload of their manifesto promises? When you say "in government", do you mean in another coalition arrangement? As much as it pains me, I think the Tories are more likely to win an outright majority next time around. It still seems a bit ridiculous to me that they weren't able to properly oust Labour last time out.

 

When's the next general election likely? Will Cameron push it to 2015 in the hope that Scotland expunges itself in 2014 so he can sweep to victory without the pesky Scottish Labour seats holding him back?

 

Yep, coalition. Thing is, even if they have a drop anywhere close to current polling, they'll probably have 30 or so MPs. If you subscribe to the theory that Labour's recent leads will decline, then a hung parliament (with either Conservative or Labour in the lead) might be more likely than a Labour majority or a Conservative majority.

 

Officially the election date is fixed for May 2015. In practical terms its easier than it looks for either coalition partner to force an early election, but they've got no incentive to do so.

 

Nobody seems to know what happens to the UK parliament in Scotland goes independent. The earliest even Alec Salmond thinks Scotland would actually have the formal split is 2015, in which case there's no mechanism for not having Scottish seats in the 2015 UK election. Theoretically if that happened, the Scottish seats in Westminster just disappear in 2016, which could be a major constitutional hassle as it's certainly not impossible that could wipe out a Labour majority.

 

Not that Scotland's going independent anyway.

[gary v1]

Probably not but if there's one thing that's made me seriously consider going for it is UKIP's local election results. We're really just so politically different from the rest of the UK.

 

Really enjoyed the 6 minutes clip on the channel 4 news website covering the key points of the UKIP conference. Clearly a huge bunch of buffoons.

[PowerButchi]

Despite their relatively large number of idiots, I'm really enjoying the rise of UKIP and their change into a proper, professional political party.

 

I'm going to assume you've not seen the news over the last week then. Even Roger Helmer was being dragged over the coals for his rape apologism (real word?)

 

Out of interest, because I must've missed something, why "even" Roger Helmer? As far as I was aware, he's been an idiotic bigot since forever.

 

Shit term of phrase, had been up for 40 hours. All there was to it.

[Up Chuck]

Heh, fair enough. Cos yeah, he's my MEP and notorious for being an awful human being.

[JNLister]

You know how a few people still argue Brown and Darling shouldn't have bailed out the banks, even though at one point they were told RBS was a couple of hours away from going under and closing its cashpoints? Well, according to the diaries of Brown's special advisor, here's what Brown was saying/thinking that morning:

 

You don't understand...If the banks are shutting their doors, and the cashpoints aren't working, and people go to Tesco and their cards aren't being accepted, the whole thing will just explode.

 

"If you can't buy food or petrol or medicine for your kids, people will just start breaking the windows and helping themselves. And as soon as people see that on TV, that's the end, because everyone will think that's OK now, that's just what we all have to do.

 

"It'll be anarchy. That's what could happen tomorrow. I'm serious, I'm serious... We'd have to think: do we have curfews, do we put the Army on the streets, how do we get order back?"

[d-d-d-dAz]

Whilst I agree with the bailing out of the banks, it's hard to argue that Gordon 'I SAVED THE WORLD' Brown isn't fond of hyperbole.

[The King Of Swing]

So it looks like the US Government is about to shut down over Obamacare of all things.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-24330034

 

Mental.

[Sergio Mendacious]

Oh God, don't get me started - it's all such bollocks. "Firebrand" (read: twat) Ted Cruz is trying to run roughshod over everyone and get himself over as an ideological hero of the right, and the Republican base. The way the argument is being framed by some, the very idea that there might be some teething problems, which are inevitable for something so huge and transformative, should shoot down the legislation. There are all sorts of freudian slips going on in the rightwingosphere, such as talking of "the need to stop this universal healthcare".

[The King Of Swing]

As someone living outside of America it certainly appears to me at least that The Republican Party has gone bat shit insane since Obama's election.