Moderators PowerButchi Posted March 11, 2018 Moderators Share Posted March 11, 2018 Dear Max Power.  It's Chelts time again. I know I'm on St Calvados for the Arkle, but I want your strong hand and trusting words for the rest of the week.]  Cheers,  Butch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glenryck Pilchards Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Also paging @Max Power It looks like the ground is going to be soft and heavy in places so won't suit the usual candidates. I have lost track of the nags this season so I would like to know which horses like a mud bath. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Power Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Sorry lads, rarely post on here these days. Here we go.... FAVOURITIES I THINK WILL WIN Footpad Buveir Dair Apple's Jade Samcro Laurina Un De Sceaux Apple's Shakira FAVOURITES I THINK WILL LOSE Getabird Altior Douvan Might Bite Cause Of Causes Now, firstly, get your Wellingtons out. It's going to be the worst ground in twenty years, so lots of horses at the head of the market need a check to see whether they go on heavy. Don't try and get too clever though. Lots of trials throughout the winter have been run on very soft ground too, so look for horses that have won well - particularly at Cheltenham's November and January meetings and Leopardstown over Christmas. Secondly, put your bets on between 9-11 in a morning. This is traditionally when bookies enhance prices to attract custom. Shop around. Many will offer extra place terms or best odds. Coral are offering money back on the Supreme as a free bet up to 25 quid. Paddy Power are offering money back if the favourite wins on the first day. William Hill are paying double the odds on the Supreme (I think). Coral are offering faller insurance. After taking all that in, if you're going to back Getabird use William Hill - you'll get double the odds. If you fancy an outsider in the Supreme, use Coral. If you fancy something against any shortie then use Paddy Power. AND MAKE SURE YOU TAKE THE PRICE. Many bookies will shorten the odds just before race time. As for day one? I don't like Getabird, but don't know what will go on the ground as I've not looked properly. Kalashnikov won on soft but might not be good enough. I've backed Mengli Khan but think the ground has gone against it. Debuchet might not be the worst bet in the world at likely odds. Footpad is a cert. As is Buveur Dair. As is Apple's Jade. That's your day one treble, pays about 4/1. The 2.50 has been thrown wide open with the weather. Vintage Clouds is interesting, as is the horse with the French name trained by Venetia Williams but I forget what its called. The best bet in my opinion is Mr Whittaker in the 5.30. Its about 12/1. Won on Cheltenham trials day, acts of soft. Get the wheelbarrow out. In the 4.50 look for an old boat that'll stay all day. 4 miles will be a shocker, expect only a handful to finish. DAY ONE. Mengli Khan with Corals (free bet worst case). The Big Treble 4/1. Vintage Clouds win. French Horse each way. Ms Parfois win. Mr Whittaker win. In case I don't post on here again before the end of the week, remember this for the Gold Cup. DO NOT BACK A HORSE WHO HAS FAILED IN THE RACE BEFORE. Apart from Kauto Star, they just don't win. If anyone backs Djakadam then I advice a white coat. Native River and Minella Rocco were 2nd and 3rd last year. All the stats point to Might Bite, but the ground has surely gone against him, although he is the best horse in the race. I'll take Road To Respect and Definitely Red. 10/1 and 16/1. You won't go badly wrong with those. Â Â Â Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators PowerButchi Posted March 12, 2018 Moderators Share Posted March 12, 2018 I fancy Definitly Red so thanka for making me feel intelligent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members Lion_of_the_Midlands Posted March 12, 2018 Paid Members Share Posted March 12, 2018 I don't like Getabird either. First Flow for me in the Supreme. Won his last 2 on heavy and the last was at Haydock where heavy means sinking up to the hocks.  I'd also picked out Ms Parfois and Mr Whittaker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators PowerButchi Posted March 12, 2018 Moderators Share Posted March 12, 2018 (edited) Tomorrows e/w 15. Ill be banging it on with my local independent bookie tomorro rather than the big names. I've gone for horses that like heavy going mainly. (fully aware that St.. CAlvados at 3s is Wooly level madness in an EW L15) Edited March 12, 2018 by PowerButchi Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TildeGuy~! Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 I’ve just whacked £40 on the banker treble of Footpad, Buvuer D’Air and Apples Jade, returns £208.76 Good luck lads! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators PowerButchi Posted March 13, 2018 Moderators Share Posted March 13, 2018 Mark Chapman already testing my patience and it's only 9:45am. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members tiger_rick Posted March 13, 2018 Paid Members Share Posted March 13, 2018 (edited) Just a bit of info that you can use or ignore. Our kid lives down there and went to a preview event last night. Sent me this. Similar to some of what @Max Power has said. Quote Just in case you are having a few bets today. I was at a preview night last night and this was some of the feedback/tips on the races. The jockeys and experts were rarely in agreement on some of the races so take your pick but hopefully it might have a few winners! Supreme novices Race is difficult to call. Kalashnikov is best bet to win Western Ryder, Slate House and Debuchet fancies as e/w chances. Arkle Chase Unlikely anything but Footpad will win. Ultimate Handicap Free for all race with no clear winner. Gold Present, Cogry and Shantou Flyer worth a punt. Champion Hurdle Buvear D’Air wins. Identity Thief (80/1) and Elgin an e/w bet. Stay away from Faugheen. The jockeys thought he was massively overrated. Mares Hurdle Apples Jade will likely win. La Bague Au Roi may push it but unlikely. National Hunt Rathvinden a good fav. Ms Parfois decent outsider and Mossback could be in with a shout too. Relatively open race. Brothers Novice Mister Whitaker being heavily backed. Testify outside chance.  I've gone with this. It won't win but worth an e/w shot at those odds: Edited March 13, 2018 by tiger_rick Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members Lion_of_the_Midlands Posted March 13, 2018 Paid Members Share Posted March 13, 2018 29 minutes ago, PowerButchi said: Mark Chapman already testing my patience and it's only 9:45am. Do you mean Matt Chapman Butch? I think they are both bellends but Mark is worse for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators PowerButchi Posted March 13, 2018 Moderators Share Posted March 13, 2018 Yeah, Matt the Dancing on Ice prick. He ruins ATR for me on a daily basis.  Hoping for Lucy Versamy doing drunk weather at half four friom the course again this eyar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members Kaz Hayashi Posted March 13, 2018 Paid Members Share Posted March 13, 2018 Good luck with all of your bets lads. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators PowerButchi Posted March 13, 2018 Moderators Share Posted March 13, 2018 Had 2.50Â E/W on Summerville Boy at 9s which was a nice pull. St Calvados ran probably the wprst race I have seen though. Was out of his depth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Power Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 Don't know who rode St Calvados but he wants his bumps feeling, likewise Davy Russell on Petite. Set off like 5 furlong sprinters in a swamp. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members Lion_of_the_Midlands Posted March 13, 2018 Paid Members Share Posted March 13, 2018 They both wanted to lead and they buzzed each other up. That race was lost early on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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