Paid Members Carbomb Posted July 22 Paid Members Share Posted July 22 It strikes me that it would be "too soon" for the Great 'Murican Public to elect another president of colour only eight years after Obama, and a woman at that. Much as I can't stand Harris politically, I would at least hope she got elected out of two crap options being offered, but I don't see it happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members BomberPat Posted July 22 Paid Members Share Posted July 22 11 hours ago, Rob Lowe said: Trump getting shot seems like months ago, it was last Saturday! This was something I was thinking about when it happened - the news cycle happens so quickly, that by the time it actually gets to the election, any sympathy Trump has garnered from being shot at will have completely washed away, because it'll feel like ancient history, and there will likely have been four or five other big political stories between then and now, and then three or four of them will have been Trump scandals. I think Kamala Harris can beat Trump, but it will be a closer run thing than it should be. I think the Democrats will lose if they try and paint her as an explicitly feminist and groundbreaking candidate the way they nauseatingly tried to sell Hillary Clinton - if they keep the messaging to her competence vs. Trump's chaos, they will fare a lot better. The Trump campaign is likely going to continue to treat her as a Biden proxy, paint her as weak for only standing because Biden had to withdraw, and argue that the entire process is illegitimate because she's not Biden and that's who Trump was prepared to campaign against. It will backfire on the Democrats if their messaging treats Harris as effectively the anointed candidate who "waited her turn", again, much as it did for Clinton, though with less baggage. I think Trump stands a better chance of winning if he keeps on message about the process being illegitimate and the system being out to get him, as stupid as that is, but I also doubt his ability to stay on-message about that when faced with a black female candidate - the slightest provocation will lead to him blurting out something racist or sexist, and the media will be won or lost based on how the media treats those inevitable outbursts, imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
d-d-d-dAz Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 Harris is the only option, anyone saying otherwise is kidding themselves. Forgetting that her candidacy is the only one that can legally claim the money that has been raised to date for Biden, her real strength comes from how she'll appeal to black voters and suburban women. If they bypass a black woman right now to give themselves a chance at hiring a white man, they're utterly dead in a ditch. So the fun becomes guessing who she'll pick as her VP, and I think that's where they can soothe the American consciousness with someone pale and male. Probably Josh Shapiro, who should be able to bring Pennsylvania with him and will absolutely cut Vance to Ribbons in the VP debates. Harris is a flawed candidate, but she's carried the progressive wing of the Dems by virtue of being around for the last 3 years where - despite the bluster - Biden's administration have delivered probably as close to a 'progressive' Presidency as is possible in 2024 America. She's probably as close to a unifier as they'll find, and if they can land on a decent VP pick I think she's got a decent chance. The line that writes itself is 'I spent two decades prosecuting criminals, so this campaign is nothing new for me' and I think it'll get significant cut through. Combine that with a lifelong advocacy of pro-choice politics, and I think she's in a decent place to do well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members Ronnie Posted July 22 Paid Members Share Posted July 22 54 minutes ago, d-d-d-dAz said: The line that writes itself is 'I spent two decades prosecuting criminals, so this campaign is nothing new for me' and I think it'll get significant cut through. Combine that with a lifelong advocacy of pro-choice politics, and I think she's in a decent place to do well. She'll need to pick wisely for a VP candidate, since she's from Dem-hub California, which won't pull in extra votes from the few battleground states which will actually determine the election. I'd personally prefer Gavin Newsom, Governor of CA as the presidential candidate; he's a similar age but looks younger, and has the height (6'3") and good looks which are so important to many of that electorate, particularly with Trump's penchant for dismissive nicknames based on appearance and characteristics. But since he's also from CA, I don't think he'll bring in anybody new. That only leaves a few options: Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan would be a great choice ordinarily, but I don't see a two-woman ticket being effective; we're only four years into having a single woman on offer in the pair. That leaves ... who? Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, I suppose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
organizedkaos Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 1 hour ago, d-d-d-dAz said: her real strength comes from how she'll appeal to black voters and suburban women So treating entire groups of people as monolothic when it comes to anything is difficult but I had got the impression from other political commentators that Harris didn't necessarily play well with black voters? Her role as a DA and being fairly non progressive when it came to ideas about prosecution making her seem like she was very much part of the system that leads to disproportionate incarceration and killing of black people? This was the conversation when she was a candidate for 2020 so maybe things have changed over her run as VP but yeah I'd got the impression the idea that she plays well with black voters might not be the case? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members BomberPat Posted July 22 Paid Members Share Posted July 22 Black voters in general are far less of a predictable voting bloc than they used to be; I read something recently from Jamelle Bouie about how it's tied to church attendance - most primarily African-American churches are reliable sources of votes for the Democrats, but as church attendance has declined, that correlation has become far weaker. Polls have shown that black voters rated Harris far more favourably than Trump, but there's not really any distinction between Harris and Biden, so assuming no great sea-change between now and the election it's a case of voter demographics being business as usual rather than Kamala Harris bringing in a greater percentage of black or female voters than Joe Biden would have. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
d-d-d-dAz Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 6 minutes ago, organizedkaos said: So treating entire groups of people as monolothic when it comes to anything is difficult but I had got the impression from other political commentators that Harris didn't necessarily play well with black voters? Her role as a DA and being fairly non progressive when it came to ideas about prosecution making her seem like she was very much part of the system that leads to disproportionate incarceration and killing of black people? This was the conversation when she was a candidate for 2020 so maybe things have changed over her run as VP but yeah I'd got the impression the idea that she plays well with black voters might not be the case? It may be that she personally doesn't play well with the black vote - agree that monoliths are imprecise, but without them political strategy wouldn't work - but bypassing a black candidate for a white one when all precedence and sense suggests it should be hers would play terribly. So perhaps, that's more to the point. The likelihood is their black appeal would collapse if the Dems are seen to bypass the most qualified candidate in the field to go to a white candidate. I also think the idea she had difficulties with the black community was more pronounced in a Democratic field, the vote will probably be more in her favour against Trump and Vance. It's interesting hearing that Roy Cooper out of North Carolina is the favourite for VP, as the expectation is the next wave of Presidential candidates - Newsom, Whitmer, Buttigieg and the big lad from Illinoise whose name I can't remember - will sit this one out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedTwoster Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 I wasn’t massively impressed by Harris in the primaries, but hopefully she’ll look strong against Trump in the coming debates. Ultimately, it’s as serious as potentially being a vote against a dictatorship, or at the very least, a corrupt electoral process that favours an extreme right strand of the Republicans party. You’d have to hope that enough people will see that and feel alarmed by it to prevent it from becoming a reality. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators neil Posted July 22 Moderators Share Posted July 22 15 hours ago, Devon Malcolm said: she's also worse than Joe Biden politically I feel like there is this big online bot thing happening online where no matter what a democrat/liberal/progressive posts it is swarmed by responses like "I'm a democrat and I'll never vote for <insert any Democrat candidate>". Seems to be the move to make the younger vote feel like unless they get their ideal and perfect candidate that they should just "not vote" in an act of defiance. Pretty smart on the right wing side as they absolutely want to make this as close of a race as they can so they can claim it is all rigged (obv only if they lose)...then their pals on the Supreme Court will hand it to them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
d-d-d-dAz Posted July 23 Share Posted July 23 18 hours ago, d-d-d-dAz said: The line that writes itself is 'I spent two decades prosecuting criminals, so this campaign is nothing new for me' and I think it'll get significant cut through. https://www.instagram.com/reel/C9vftNTRO_Y/?igsh=MWlqNGc4a2o3MWhqZQ== Ding ding ding. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members SuperBacon Posted July 23 Members Share Posted July 23 Make America Whole Again? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members FLips Posted July 23 Paid Members Share Posted July 23 1 minute ago, SuperBacon said: Make America Whole Again? What is even the context of this? Advice on what? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members SuperBacon Posted July 23 Members Share Posted July 23 2 minutes ago, FLips said: What is even the context of this? Advice on what? Foreign policy on Iceland? Waheeeeeeeey. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members mim731 Posted July 23 Paid Members Share Posted July 23 3 hours ago, FLips said: What is even the context of this? Advice on what? She apparently said in an interview or similar that she quite liked Trump, even if she didn't totally agree with everything he says. It got some traction in the news cycle so presumably she's trying to further elongate the relevancy of the story. Why anyone would care, given she's clearly thick as mince, I could not tell you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Merzbow Posted July 26 Share Posted July 26 American politics is something I'd rarely ever comment on, I'm your typical "fuck both sides" type but christ if Trump wns it's not him you have to worry about, it's the fact that in his ear he has maybe the biggest proponent of Curtis fucking Yarvin. JD Vance owes the entirety of his rise to Peter Thiel and along with him the government will be directly influenced by Elon Musk, another big fan of Yarvin. Techno-Fascism isn't the thing of pulpy cyberpunk books any longer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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