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UFC 249: Ferguson vs Gaethje - May 9 🇺🇸


wandshogun09

Who wins and how?   

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How fucking cool is this Enter The Dragon style 249 poster. The UFC made this as well. It’s not even the official event poster and it’s several steps up from their usual standard. 

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How we feeling about Cejudo vs Cruz then? It’s a tough one to call for a few reasons for me.

1) The obvious issue is Cruz being out over 3 years. He’s done it before with the comebacks after long absences when everyone thought those big knee injuries had finished him. And he came back and looked better than ever. But how many times can you do that? This time he’s not coming back in a shaking off the cobwebs fight with a Mizugaki type test. He’s coming back and going straight in with the champion. Also, at this point he’s 35 years old and this has been an even longer layoff than his others. He’s not an old man and by all accounts he lives a pretty clean life and looks after himself. But at 35 at the elite levels in a lighter weightclass, and with his history of injuries and layoffs, he’s already gone beyond what’s considered the norm. 

2) Cejudo is also coming off a fairly lengthy layoff. Nowhere near the 3 plus years Cruz has, obviously, but it’s still never ideal. He’s been out 11 months now with injuries. I don’t recall him ever being out that long since he started his MMA career so who knows how the time out/coming back from injury will effect him. As much of a Lego headed twat as he is, Cejudo is a seriously great athlete of course. But unlike Cruz, he also seems the type to believe his own press. I know a lot of his schtick is played up for the cameras but I definitely get the sense he’s the kind of guy to let it all go to his head. His arrogance coupled with him coming off an injury could possibly be his downfall against someone as level headed and tactical as Cruz. He’s only 2 years younger than Cruz as well. 

3) Like everyone on the card, all bets are kind of off with the circumstances surrounding this event. What have they both been doing since Covid hit? What kind of shape were they both in when they accepted this fight? Where were they at weight cut wise? Cejudo was looking pretty fucking chunky last time I saw him. How active has Cruz been in the gym the last 3 years? I don’t think he was out injured this time, was he? Just taking a break and doing the analyst stuff. So maybe this layoff actually won’t be as tough to come back from as people think. So many questions. And it makes this such a weirdly intriguing matchup to try to wrap your head around.

If they were both coming in at 100% (which they really can’t be given the layoffs and how late this fight got thrown together), I think I’d favour Cruz. Behind all the buffoonery, Cejudo showed a lot of heart to come back from a rough start against a beast in Marlon Moraes and stop him. But a lot of that seemed to be down to Moraes fading as well. If Moraes had the gas to keep that pace on for 5 rounds I really don’t see Cejudo coming out upright. Cruz at his best could probably go 10 rounds and never stop moving. I think he’d frustrate and outwork Cejudo to a decision. Especially as Olympic wrestler Cejudo seems to fancy himself a striker these days. Under these circumstances though, I’m sad to say I’m slightly leaning towards a Cejudo decision. Just think Cruz might have gone to the well once too often with the comebacks.

I’d love to see Cruz come out and shockingly blitz him in a minute though. This card, and the way it’s come together, seems ripe for some crazy results and finishes. This is the one I want to see most. Cruz going straight up Bisping-Rockhold 2 on Triple Cringe. I already think Cruz is the best 135er in MMA history, but if he pulls this off I don’t think it’s even up for debate anymore. 

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Edited by wandshogun09
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2 hours ago, wandshogun09 said:

What kind of shape were they both in when they accepted this fight? Where were they at weight cut wise? Cejudo was looking pretty fucking chunky last time I saw him.

Cejudo looks to be in decent shape from what I have seen, but he is also sporting a nasty cut around his right eye. 

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For me, the main event comes down to whether Ferguson can weather the early storm. I think Gaethje is going to be very dangerous early on. He has stopped his last three opponents via strikes in the first round. By contrast, Ferguson is a slow starter and is also very hittable. However, if the fight goes past the 2nd round, I think Ferguson will start to take over and score a come-from-behind victory.

I was leaning towards a Ferguson victory at the start of the week. However, I have slowly changed my mind as the week has progressed. I'm going with Gaethje via second-round TKO. 

Edited by jimufctna24
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Thats kind of how in feeling, whether or not sustain the damage Gaethje puts on him early. Im expecting it to be leg kick city in those early rounds. History shows Ferguson can probably take it and come on strong late but im quite fancying Gaethje by stoppage.

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Ferguson’s definitely hittable but so is Eddie Alvarez. Eddie gets buzzed or dropped in nearly every fight and he handed Gaethje his first loss. Obviously it’s better if you’re not so open to being cracked but both Alvarez and Poirier have shown that if you’re insanely tough, have the heart to gut through those bad moments and your conditioning is on point, you have a chance of outlasting Gaethje.

But if Gaethje starts whacking those leg kicks in...I don’t know. Fergie’s had those knee injuries that put him out in the past as well. Last thing he needs is Gaethje swinging them heavy legs at his joints. Someone asked Poirier on Twitter recently how long he suffered post-fight from all the leg kicks in the Gaethje war...

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That’s the winner of the fight. And Poirier is younger than Ferguson and has no history of leg injuries as far as I know. So win or lose, this is going to be rough on Tony. I bet Alvarez was banged up for a bit after their fight as well. Even if you beat a madman like Gaethje, it comes at a cost. 

Edited by wandshogun09
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