Paid Members JNLister Posted January 5 Paid Members Share Posted January 5 2 hours ago, Lion_of_the_Midlands said: Don't they have 3 months before they have to have a by-election, with 6 months as the absolute maximum if its the end of a parliament. The only way around a by-election is a GE inside 6 months. Turns out that's just convention. The speaker has to call the byelection and set a date (aka "moving a writ") following a motion passed by the House of Commons. The convention is that the chief whip of the party of the former MP tables the motion, within three months unless there's good reason (it's the summer holidays/nobody is sure if Gerry Adams is allowed to quit) or it's nearly the end of the parliament and an automatic general election is pending. Occasionally if the relevant party is dragging its feet, a different party will move the writ. In theory the House of Commons could vote to reject the writ, which then can't be brought back in that Parliamentary session. I don't think that's happened since the war, and you can imagine the response if the government voted against having a byelection. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westlondonmist Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Who is going to stand for Pete Bone's seat? Yep his missus. Someone going out with him is going to be very anti bullying and sexual assault. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members Lion_of_the_Midlands Posted January 7 Paid Members Share Posted January 7 He threatened to stand as an independent if they didn't pick his missus as the Tory candidate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westlondonmist Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 17 minutes ago, Lion_of_the_Midlands said: He threatened to stand as an independent if they didn't pick his missus as the Tory candidate. Threatening and bullying behaviour, sounds like him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members Lion_of_the_Midlands Posted January 11 Paid Members Share Posted January 11 On 1/5/2024 at 9:15 PM, JNLister said: Turns out that's just convention. The speaker has to call the byelection and set a date (aka "moving a writ") following a motion passed by the House of Commons. The convention is that the chief whip of the party of the former MP tables the motion, within three months unless there's good reason (it's the summer holidays/nobody is sure if Gerry Adams is allowed to quit) or it's nearly the end of the parliament and an automatic general election is pending. Occasionally if the relevant party is dragging its feet, a different party will move the writ. In theory the House of Commons could vote to reject the writ, which then can't be brought back in that Parliamentary session. I don't think that's happened since the war, and you can imagine the response if the government voted against having a byelection. No chicanery this time Johnny L. Looks like 15th of February for both Wellingborough and Kingswood. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members JNLister Posted January 12 Paid Members Share Posted January 12 On 1/11/2024 at 1:12 PM, Lion_of_the_Midlands said: No chicanery this time Johnny L. Looks like 15th of February for both Wellingborough and Kingswood. The seat is being split at the general at which point the Labour candidate for the Kingwsood byelection (and likely winner) is standing in a different seat (Bristol Northeast) to the one I'll be moved to (Northeast Somerset and Hanham). Even if the Tories win Kingswood, the winner won't be standing in the general at my new seat as the candidate there will be a certain Jacob Rees-Mogg. Awaiting confirmation from bigger nerds, but the upshot is it looks like I may be among the first group of voters to have three different MPs in a calendar year since 1974. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members Lion_of_the_Midlands Posted January 12 Paid Members Share Posted January 12 Most of the polling data I've seen John suggests that Jacob* will lose at the GE. Is that the feeling on the ground?                 *only calling him Jacob to annoy Keith. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperBacon Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 19 minutes ago, Lion_of_the_Midlands said: only calling him Jacob to annoy Keith. Surely calling him Boris would annoy him more? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members Lion_of_the_Midlands Posted January 12 Paid Members Share Posted January 12 I thought that in Houchen's world that you were not allowed to refer to potential cunts by their first name Super. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith Houchen Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, Lion_of_the_Midlands said: I thought that in Houchen's world that you were not allowed to refer to potential cunts by their first name Super. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members JNLister Posted January 12 Paid Members Share Posted January 12 (edited) I'd say the forecasts of Mogg losing are plausible but with three big asterisks: * Some of them are based on his current boundaries. His newly formed seat is losing areas where Labour/Lib Dem did best at the last council elections and gaining areas where the Conservatives did best. It's close in all cases, so it's a marginal effect, but in theory he's got a little more favourable ground to fight on. * The forecasts are based on the current polls. It's likely but not certain that the national Labour lead over the Tories will be narrower at a real election. * There's still potential for confusion over who anti-Mogg voters would support. At first glance, the Lib Dems came second last time and would be the obvious tactical vote. In reality, Labour have a much better chance of winning. That's probably because the Lib Dems already do a good job of getting the votes of most people who would ever consider them (it's a rural area.) Meanwhile floating voters are more likely to be the types who'd be choosing Labour or Conservatives based on who seems least incompetent/extreme. Electoral Calculus (on current national polling) has him losing to Labour by 35%-30%, so there's certainly room for it to be a close run thing. For context, all things being equal, his is the type of seat you'd expect Labour to be just about winning if the Tories were on around 200 seats, similar to 2005 (which seems to me a plausible comparison election that's being overlooked in the whole "will it be a 1997 landslide, a hung parliament or a 1992 Tory upset" debate. (Edit for some extra context: Rees-Mogg won it in 2010 when it was technically a new seat, though it was virtually identical to what was previously Wansdyke. He beat the former Wansdyke MP, a Labour guy who'd taken it from the Tories in 97 and won again 01 and 05. That man, Dan Norris, went on to be the current West of England mayor and is one of the potential candidates to be the Labour challenger to Rees-Mogg this time, in what can only be called a long-time grudge rematch.) Edited January 12 by JNLister Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperBacon Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 *John Peel voice* 25 minutes ago, JNLister said: Electoral Calculus  Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith Houchen Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 11 minutes ago, SuperBacon said: *John Peel voice*  With their new song  5 hours ago, Lion_of_the_Midlands said: Tim Healeys Homemade Chutney  Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members JNLister Posted January 12 Paid Members Share Posted January 12 Ah balls, I forgot to check 2019 when a couple of constituencies had Labour win by-elections and then lose the seats in the December general. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith Houchen Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Â Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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