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David

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You're not going to see anything though, it's the ESPN magazine not Hustler.

 

Don't piss on my chips man. I know we're not gonna be getting full-on spread eagle shots or anything but I'm hoping it's the start of her slippery slope (heh) into something more seedy.

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Jamie Varner replaces the injured Terry Etim against Joe Lauzon on UFC on Fox 4.

I like that more than the original fight. Varner looked so impressive against Barboza, he'll give Lauzon a rough time if he comes in like that again.

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UFC on FOX 4 won't bomb.

Yes it will. Anyone with eyes should be able to look at that card and come to that conclusion. UFC on FOX 3 proved what everyone was already saying going into it; that a show on FOX needs to be headlined by two big stars in marquee fights that the masses want to see. Nate Diaz vs. Jim Miller wasn't that type of fight and the show bombed accordingly, and neither is Shogun vs. Brandon Vera.

 

t has a big star in Shogun main eventing

Calling Shogun a, "big star," is pushing it a little bit, don't you think? He's a moderate star at best and certainly not a star big enough to draw an audience going against a nobody like Brandon Vera. Against a Rashad Evans or a Rampage, then yeah, Shogun in the main event of a FOX show would probably do OK, but against Vera it's got disaster written all over it.

 

and two guys in the top 10 at LHW in the co-main.

UFC on FOX 3 had two guys in the top 10 at Lightweight in the main event and two guys in the top 10 at Welterweight in the co-main event and yet nobody watched it because casual and mainstream audiences don't give a flying fuck about rankings. For FOX shows to succeed you need to put big stars against one another in fights that grab casual fan's attention. You know, fights like Forrest vs. Tito or Rashad vs. Rampage. "Borderline," main events and co-main events I'd describe them as, that may or may not draw on PPV, but will definitely draw on free TV. That's what they need.

 

Personally, I'd swap the co-main and the main event, I think Machida vs Bader is the more appealing fight to the casual fan.

Bollocks to that; if anyone was to do any re-shuffling of this card then the only logical conclusion would be to put Shogun vs. Lyoto and Bader vs. Vera. Shogun and Machida are the two biggest names on the show, so instead of diluting them, they should put them in the main event together, particularly since it's got the automatic storyline of it being a rubber match between the two. Why they haven't done this already is completely beyond me.

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I don't know what you mean by bomb. Being that all the FX and Fox shows have been the number 1 most watched shows in their slots for men aged 18-49 which is the demographic they are going for doesn't seem like bombing to me. Shogun/Machida is a PPV main event level fight I seriously doubt they'd give that away on Fox.

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I hate Kevin James he's about as funny as Prostate cancer, but Bas Rutten is hilarious, I'm sure I'll watch it at some point in the future.

 

 

Yeah, I'm not a Kevin James fan, he's corny as hell.. But this looks kinda like School of Rock with mma, and he is definitely less annoying than Jack Black. The supporting cast is good and it looks like it will be stupid and a bit shit but fun. Decent Sunday avo film at some point, I reckon.

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It doesn't happen often, but I have to agree with Supremo 100% here. As I said, this show needs something like a Forrest/Tito main event, which would have worked well for all parties, because as things stand one of the most iconic names in the industry is going out for his last bout and it's an afterthought because it's on the Silva/Sonnen card.

 

I've always argued against MMA going down the pro wrestling route, but this is one instance where they should be taking that blueprint and running with it. Television should be a way for the UFC to generate new fans and ensure that they buy PPV's down the line.

 

The gameplan should be very simple. Put some name fighters in the main event, thus drawing in the casual interest, and load the card with up & coming exciting fighters that will catch their attention as well.

 

The name fighters don't have to be shooting for a title or even relevant to the title scene anymore. They can headline these shows with "special attraction" fights that draw viewers in, hopefully resulting in them seeing the younger talent on the rest of the card and getting hooked.

 

I siimply cannot believe that the UFC finally got their much wanted major television deal, only for them to appear to be pissing it away with cards that will continually draw less & less viewers.

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I don't know what you mean by bomb.

Viewership for UFC on FOX 3 being down almost 50% from where it was for UFC on FOX 2 is what I mean by, "bomb." It went from 2.6 rating and 4.7 million viewers to a 1.5 rating and 2.4 million viewers. It even managed to beat an EliteXC show headlined by Robbie Lawler and Scott Smith to become the lowest ever MMA show on network television. That's the very definition of a bomb.

 

Being that all the FX and Fox shows have been the number 1 most watched shows in their slots for men aged 18-49 which is the demographic they are going for doesn't seem like bombing to me.

Males 18-34 declined from a 3.2 to a 1.6 from FOX 2 to FOX 3, too. Down around 50% again.

 

Shogun/Machida is a PPV main event level fight I seriously doubt they'd give that away on Fox.

Erm, what? Those two guys are fighting on the same show anyway, so it's not as if they're somehow saving the fight for pay per view. And why wouldn't they want to get as high a rating as possible by pairing them together, particularly after the ratings disaster the last time? I genuinely don't understand what you're getting at here. What do you understand the FOX shows to be?

 

The whole idea of going on FOX and FX was to get more people watching than ever before, therefore making the brand and sport bigger and bigger. Almost half the viewing audience fucking off between one FOX show to the other is the absolute antithesis of this and the way in which you turn it around is putting on fights people want to see, and of the four guys already booked for that show the best fight you could make in that sense is Machida vs. Shogun.

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I don't think the ratings matter too much. As I said they're still the most watched shows in their target demographic. It's not like they've got any real competition. Money wise id the shows are rated high then they can sell the ad slots for more money. UFC make the most of their money from PPV, so the other shows are just a way to promote themselves. I don't see Fox kicking UFC off their channels, especially so shortly after starting the contract.

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UFC on FOX 4 won't bomb.

Yes it will. Anyone with eyes should be able to look at that card and come to that conclusion. UFC on FOX 3 proved what everyone was already saying going into it; that a show on FOX needs to be headlined by two big stars in marquee fights that the masses want to see. Nate Diaz vs. Jim Miller wasn't that type of fight and the show bombed accordingly, and neither is Shogun vs. Brandon Vera.

 

t has a big star in Shogun main eventing

Calling Shogun a, "big star," is pushing it a little bit, don't you think? He's a moderate star at best and certainly not a star big enough to draw an audience going against a nobody like Brandon Vera. Against a Rashad Evans or a Rampage, then yeah, Shogun in the main event of a FOX show would probably do OK, but against Vera it's got disaster written all over it.

 

and two guys in the top 10 at LHW in the co-main.

UFC on FOX 3 had two guys in the top 10 at Lightweight in the main event and two guys in the top 10 at Welterweight in the co-main event and yet nobody watched it because casual and mainstream audiences don't give a flying fuck about rankings. For FOX shows to succeed you need to put big stars against one another in fights that grab casual fan's attention. You know, fights like Forrest vs. Tito or Rashad vs. Rampage. "Borderline," main events and co-main events I'd describe them as, that may or may not draw on PPV, but will definitely draw on free TV. That's what they need.

 

Personally, I'd swap the co-main and the main event, I think Machida vs Bader is the more appealing fight to the casual fan.

Bollocks to that; if anyone was to do any re-shuffling of this card then the only logical conclusion would be to put Shogun vs. Lyoto and Bader vs. Vera. Shogun and Machida are the two biggest names on the show, so instead of diluting them, they should put them in the main event together, particularly since it's got the automatic storyline of it being a rubber match between the two. Why they haven't done this already is completely beyond me.

Comparing the drawing power of the LW and LHW divisions is ludicrous. Nobody bar BJ Penn has boosted ratings/buys, whereas the popularity of the UFC boomed due to guys like Ortiz and Liddell- the latter of which Shogun KTFO on PPV. Shogun main evented a PPV in his last appearance, drawing PPV numbers beating the LW title fights with Henderson, and before that his title fight with Jones was the 5th most successful buyrate of the year at 490, 000 buys. Don't try and say Jones was a proven draw at that point either. Shogun can definitely grab the casual fans attention, especially with his last fight being a FOTY that he narrowly lost.

 

Also, we're too late in the day and cards have been ravaged enough that Shogun vs. Machida III shouldn't be made, not now. When the card was first made, absolutely, it would be the better choice. But Bader and Machida have been in training for this fight for too long now. UFC on FOX 4 will do much better than FOX 3, mainly because the two main events involve guys who have been in high profile PPV bouts, unlike a guy like Jim Miller who hadn't even co-main evented a PPV before headlining FOX. Vera isn't credible at this point, but he is a recognisable veteran name, so it's the Shogun (who drew a combined 780, 000 PPV buys in 2011) fight, and Machida (whose last fight was for the LHW title, 485, 000 buys) vs Bader (known to the casual through TUF, involved in high selling PPVs such as UFC 126). So, with that past success being promoted as big stars on PPV, how does that translate to "bombing" on free TV?

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I don't think the ratings matter too much. As I said they're still the most watched shows in their target demographic. It's not like they've got any real competition. Money wise id the shows are rated high then they can sell the ad slots for more money. UFC make the most of their money from PPV, so the other shows are just a way to promote themselves. I don't see Fox kicking UFC off their channels, especially so shortly after starting the contract.

 

FOX will not trow them off all the channels. UFC OF FOX will lose its prime time slot and will move to midnight mabye. An average baseball match does way bigger numbers so for FOX it makes more sense to put that on at prime time.

 

Yes, they are the biggest watched programs on FUEL and FX. Yet those channels are not avalable to alot of people in the States therefore making them pretty ineffective for the UFC to make stars and promote new guys, wich is how they are using the FX and FUEL timeslots.

 

UFC on FOX should be headlined by Ortiz and Griffin. No doubt about that!! Those guys will know that they are there to attract eyeballs and not be in contendership. Those guys can help you promote the fight really well and mabye you have less injury risk since they'll know its in there best intrest to be healty come fighting day not going balls to the wall in trainingcamp.

 

 

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I don't think the ratings matter too much.

On Network television ratings are all that matters.

 

It's not like they've got any real competition.

On Network television everything is competition. If you don't draw ratings then you'll be replaced with a show that does. Sport, drama, reality TV, anything. COPS in that timeslot drew better than UFC on FOX 3.

 

As I said they're still the most watched shows in their target demographic.

And as I said; even the demographics went down by 50% last time. Clinging to the fact that they're the most watched shows in their demographic (if that's even true, I can't be arsed checking because it's a tiny droplet of information in a river of more valid facts) is the type of thing Dana White does, because he can say it in Youtube blogs without anyone challenging him or counter-pointing him. He can rant, then fuck off. But on a forum you can't do that. You have to retort to the points made; ratings and demographics have halved between one show to the other. That's an alarming pattern that needs to be addressed. Booking Vera in the main event is not addressing it one bit.

 

UFC make the most of their money from PPV, so the other shows are just a way to promote themselves.

And if less and less people are watching these shows then there's less people to promote to and therefore less people buying your pay per views. All of which is happening because of fight cards like UFC on FOX 3 and UFC on FOX 4.

 

I don't see Fox kicking UFC off their channels, especially so shortly after starting the contract.

No-one said they'd be kicked off. But if ratings continue to shrink then there's every chance they'll be put in shitter time slots, which means even less potential viewers, which means even less potential PPV buyers, so on and so forth. Everything has a knock on effect.

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Comparing the drawing power of the LW and LHW divisions is ludicrous. Nobody bar BJ Penn has boosted ratings/buys, whereas the popularity of the UFC boomed due to guys like Ortiz and Liddell- the latter of which Shogun KTFO on PPV.

My point still stands. Casual audiences don't gives a fuck about rankings, there's example after example of this, so saying there's a couple of top 10 guys from any weight class as an argument as to why a show will draw is ridiculous. If you're a star then you'll draw and if you're not then you won't. Putting two stars against each other in an exciting fight with a good story will draw. Putting two stars against two nobody's in fights that elicit complete apathy will not. This notion that there's particular divisions that draw is mental, too. Brock Lesnar is the biggest draw of all time, and he was a heavyweight, but that doesn't automatically mean all top 10 heavyweights will draw, does it? I mean, fucking hell, remember Affliction? They threw millions at guys like Fedor because they were ranked highly but nobody gave a shit, the casual audience didn't care and then they died accordingly.

 

And like I said previously, what about the co-main event of UFC on FOX 3? GSP is the company's second biggest draw of all time, and he's a welterweight, so why didn't Koshcheck vs. Hendricks do well? Perhaps because this whole entire argument is absolutely bonkers? Case in point; for a laugh I just popped over to the Sherdog rankings and saw Gustafsson and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira are both ranked in the top ten of the same division that Chuck and Tito were once in. Do you think a fight between them two would draw on Network TV? It wouldn't, of course, but by your logic you'd think it would.

 

his title fight with Jones was the 5th most successful buyrate of the year at 490, 000 buys. Don't try and say Jones was a proven draw at that point either.

I won't say that Jones was a proven draw, but what I will say is that he was a fighter on one of the fastest rises of anyone in years, fighting for a title, and going into that fight with tonnes of momentum and a brilliant story to boot, where he was offered the title shot in one of the more memorable moments of the year, before being a fucking super hero and foiling an attempted robbery the day of the fight. Momentum to the max. Maximum momentum.

 

Brandon Vera on the other hand is a fucking chump who nobody has cared about in years and years, not fighting for a title, and not going into his Shogun fight with any type of momentum or story to speak of. No stardom, no interest, no story, nothing. It's a fight that genuinely couldn't be any less appealing to casual fans.

 

Shogun can definitely grab the casual fans attention, especially with his last fight being a FOTY that he narrowly lost.

Not against Brandon Vera, he can't. It completely dilutes whatever stardom Shogun has, putting him against Vera. Same with Machida against Bader. Machida's somewhat of a star (I'd argue both Machida and Shogun's stars have fallen considerably over the last year, much like a lot of the roster due to over-exposure and whatnot) but putting him against Bader almost makes it null and void.

Bader (known to the casual through TUF, involved in high selling PPVs such as UFC 126)

Bader played almost no part in selling that PPV. You can't in one paragraph say Jon Jones wasn't a draw back then and then in the next state that his fight with Ryan Bader at UFC 126 played a part in selling that PPV. It's one or the other, surely? And being on or winning The Ultimate Fighter hasn't meant a thing for making stars in about five years. He's not a star.

 

So, with that past success being promoted as big stars on PPV, how does that translate to "bombing" on free TV?

Because stars against stars in compelling fights will draw and stars against non-stars won't. Look at what Josh Koscheck did against GSP on PPV. Then look at what he did against Hendricks on free TV. It's all about stars fighting stars, stories, momentum and exciting match ups. UFC on FOX 4 has none of this.

 

UFC on FOX 4 will do much better than FOX 3

"Much," better? Hmmm. I guess we'll have to wait and see and I'll quote you on that when the numbers come out. I guess it could do slightly better if FOX promote the fuck out of it, sure, but it's certainly nowhere near the type of card they should've booked coming out of the disaster that was UFC on FOX 3. They should've recognised what went wrong, what they needed to learn and then built a proper card that was guaranteed to draw. This one isn't that card at all.

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They probably lost millions of PPV revenue putting the Fox 1 & Fox 2 cards together, that was at least a 550,000 buy rate (they probably made $5 Million tops for the TV rights, that's losing at least $10million in revenue) add either Rashad Vs Davis or Sonnen Vs Bisping to say the 143 or 144 cards and they probably both add 100-150,000 buys to either card.

 

They were going to fix the advertisement of the show, hence why they Brian Stann was going to hit the talk show circuit, when he was main eventing and probably because they have put the best talker and the one guy who speaks English in the main event and that's Brandon Vera.

 

This time they have a 1 hour countdown style show on Fox, called UFC's Road To The Octogon, they have never had that before, at least one fighter will be hitting the talk show circuit, this should be better advertised and it won't have as much competition. So it should do bigger numbers than Fox 3 and just below Fox 2.

 

They also already have a slot signed for November, so they will not be getting cut this year.

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