UFC: Fuck Knows

[BigJag]

His UFC debut was against Arlovski at UFC 70 in Manchester (same night Gonzaga Cro Copped Cro Cop). Arlovski won a decision in another crap fight. Werdum's overall UFC record, combining both stints, is 8-2. The two losses are the Arlovski and JDS fights.

 

You must be thinking of JDS knocking out Werdum. Was he knocked out of the cage though? I just remember him getting walloped with a bastard of an uppercut and plopping to his knees.

I think you're correct. JDS was definitely the opponent. I think Werdum fell against the door and this caused some difficulty for the medical teams, in getting into the cage.

 

That's my foggy recollection.

[wandshogun09]

So this Mickey Gall vs Michael Jackson (ha) fight on the prelims here. Apparently the winner will fight CM Punk in his UFC debut (currently planned for June).

 

How does everyone see Werdum vs Velasquez 2 going? I'm in two minds. On the one hand I'm half expecting Cain to come in and wreck shop this time. But then I think, how? Sure he might've been a tad rusty in the first fight and there was the altitude. But he still landed a lot of heavy shots on Werdum and Werdum was right there every step of the way and firing back. They were both gassing as well so I'm not even sure how much a factor the altitude really was, they were in the same boat. When you really look at this fight style-wise, if Cain can't win a standup fight what does he do? Just say Werdum starts giving him hell on the feet again, does Cain shoot for a takedown again after how the first fight ended? It's a tricky fight for Cain however you look at it.

 

Werdum's killer guard means he's free to really let loose on the feet because not only does he not fear Cain's takedown one bit, he welcomes it. The threat of the takedown is something Cain has used brilliantly over the years in making his striking more effective, but if Werdum isn't threatened by it, it makes the whole fight harder work for Cain.

 

Really interesting one. I definitely think Cain will be better than he was in the first fight. But I'm finding it hard to think what he'll actually do differently this time. I'm leaning towards Werdum winning again, to be honest.

[DJM]

So this Mickey Gall vs Michael Jackson (ha) fight on the prelims here. Apparently the winner will fight CM Punk in his UFC debut (currently planned for June).

 

Only Gall will fight CM Punk if he wins. I do not think Jackson gets the fight if he wins.

[lambyUK]

Regarding the Cain/Werdum outcome, it really is fucking hard to predict.

 

There's no way Cain wants Werdum on the ground. If he does its ending quickly.

 

Cain will have to do what he does best and smother Werdum up against the cage and rough him up. Possibly look for a ko up close.

 

I think in a straight up striking match, Werdum is actually be better than Cain too so I don't think Cain will want to trade either. A few years back it would have been crazy suggesting that.

[wandshogun09]

Yeah, that's the clearest way I see Cain winning. Lots of cage control and just chip away with strikes there. On the ground that's Werdum's game and striking at range probably favours Werdum as well because he's longer and has more variety in his striking.

 

I've gone Werdum by sub again. Wouldn't be shocked if Cain wins or anything but I think Werdum is going to be a hard puzzle to solve for Cain.

[herbie747]

Yeah, it's weird, but I actually can't see how Cain beats Werdum. Which is crazy, because a year ago I couldn't see how anyone would beat Cain.

 

Isn't it amazing how sometimes when a world beater loses, you suddenly can't see how they ever won, or how they can ever win again? It was the same with Chuck. And Fedor. And Anderson. And maybe Aldo too - they lose something that they can never get back - it must be a mental thing.

[Chunk]

Yeah, it's weird, but I actually can't see how Cain beats Werdum. Which is crazy, because a year ago I couldn't see how anyone would beat Cain.

 

Isn't it amazing how sometimes when a world beater loses, you suddenly can't see how they ever won, or how they can ever win again? It was the same with Chuck. And Fedor. And Anderson. And maybe Aldo too - they lose something that they can never get back - it must be a mental thing.

 

And Rousey ...

[Carbomb]

Yeah, it's weird, but I actually can't see how Cain beats Werdum. Which is crazy, because a year ago I couldn't see how anyone would beat Cain.

 

Isn't it amazing how sometimes when a world beater loses, you suddenly can't see how they ever won, or how they can ever win again? It was the same with Chuck. And Fedor. And Anderson. And maybe Aldo too - they lose something that they can never get back - it must be a mental thing.

Personally, I just think it's a styles thing. I can still see Velasquez beating almost everyone in the division, but Werdum is clearly all sorts of wrong for him. Cain's wrestling is the spine of his game, and striking underpins it. If you've got someone who can outstrike him and isn't afraid of being taken down, that's his two most effective weapons neutralised.

 

The suggested tactic that he smothers Werdum against the cage sounds like the best one so far.

[David]

I'm the only one who sees this fight going along the lines of a slightly longer version of Velasquez vs Bigfoot?

 

Although it could be classified as an excuse, it was clear that Cain completely underestimated the effects of the altitude in Mexico City. His entire game depends on his cardio being at full throttle, and it wasn't in that fight.

 

I think he'll trade a bit with Werdum on the feet, get him against the cage, eventually get him down and will go to work on smashing him up.

 

3rd or 4th round stoppage for me.

[wandshogun09]

I think he'll trade a bit with Werdum on the feet, get him against the cage, eventually get him down and will go to work on smashing him up.

I don't think it'll be that straight forward though. If he gets Werdum down then he's in Werdum's world. There's a reason Werdum's fights are very standup heavy these days and it's because everyone's learned, some the hard way, that you don't fuck with Werdum's guard. As awesome as Cain is, one strength he's never really had to show was submission defence. No doubt it'll be good because of the gym he trains at and his insane work ethic, but he's never really had to show it in the cage. And Werdum's the best submission guy in the division and one of the best in the sport.

 

I honestly think Cain might just try and avoid taking Werdum down altogether and just go for the old Randy Couture cage control method. He'll probably strike a bit but I don't think he'll want to for long spells. Once Werdum gets in his rhythm on the feet he'll be hard to stop. I think Cain might just have to try and stifle him up the fence and look for openings to do damage from there. I've got a feeling if we see Cain shooting for takedowns it'll be because the standup's going badly again.

 

I'm not writing off Cain's chances of landing a bomb on the feet either though. Often with heavyweights it's all a game of timing and inches. If Cain connects clean Werdum may well drop. My head's swaying towards another Werdum win though.

[David]

I think it depends what state Werdum is in when he eventually goes to the floor. If Cain fights at the level that he has in the past (with the exception of the Mexico fight) then there's a good chance that Werdum will be physically fucked by the time Cain takes him down in the 2nd or 3rd round.

[Egg Shen]

Im with you Dave, i think Cain wins handily. On paper Werdum does pose problems but a un-gassed, motivated Cain is gonna smash him. Cain TKO.

[jimufctna24]

Add me to those who are picking Cain.

 

I think he will bully Werdum against the cage. Werdum will be dangerous with his knees, but I expect Cain to grind him down. 

[wandshogun09]

Fuck you all. Werdum can do this. Werdum was gassed as well in the first fight. So we're getting ungassed Werdum this time as well. Cardio Cain shouldn't have been effected by the altitude anyway. He NEVER gets tired. And that's the bottom line because Joe Rogan said so!

 

Seriously, I can see the argument that Cain will come in better. I'm sure he'll be better than he was at 188. Thing is, he was connecting with good shots last time, early and before he gassed. And Werdum still found a way. And now Werdum doesn't just think he can beat Cain, he knows he can. It wasn't like a JDS thing where JDS' punchers chance paid off. Werdum went to war with Cain, took shots, gave shots and won.

 

It just feels like we've heard this story before. ______ will come in better this time because this time Excuse 1 and Excuse 2 and will smash _______ in this rematch. Fill in the blanks yourself. Weidman vs Silva, Dillashaw vs Barao, whatever. These rematches often seem to kind of repeat themselves these days. Was Werdum's win over Cain the first time that much down to the altitude and Cain gassing? Of course it played a part but, like I say, Werdum was moving in slow motion as well for long spells, Cain was tagging him repeatedly in the exchanges and even dropped him. Werdum just kept coming. What is Cain actually going to adjust other than people just saying he'll be in better condition? What can he do different tactically? Because I'm struggling to see what he can really change. If he stands with Werdum he could well get outstruck, if he takes him down he could easily get submitted again. It's surely more than just 'he'll have better cardio = he wins', right? I know cardio was a big part of Cain's game but wrestling is just a big a part and I think Werdum's BJJ cancels that out. And his striking success is all tied into the threat of the takedown, which Werdum won't be threatened by because of the confidence he has in his guard. It reminds me of the 'if Anderson is serious this time he'll MURDER Weidman. Weidman will get deaded. Deaded until he's dead' stuff before their rematch. No-one was saying what Anderson would do differently in the actual fight. How he'd combat Weidman's grappling and stuff. Just some crazy belief that if Anderson simply didn't showboat, Weidman would just fall down. I really think people putting UFC 188 down to the altitude are selling Werdum short.

 

It's a tricky as fuck fight style wise for Cain however you chop it up. There's no safe route. And the most obvious path to victory is basically him just neutralising and containing Werdum against the fence. I get Dave's point that if Werdum's softened up by the time Cain takes him down then that could diminish Werdum as a threat on the ground, but who's to say it'll be Werdum softened up? If it's anything like the first fight they'll both be banged up if it goes a few rounds.

 

You've got to remember as well, Cain's showing signs that his body is badly breaking down. His mental training methods and the rumoured gym wars with the likes of Cormier and Rockhold are seemingly catching up to him, I think. He's spent a big chunk of his career, his prime years no less, injured. Serious stuff as well, knee injuries, both shoulders operated on. These are bad injuries to come back from. Especially as a heavyweight fighter who relies more on speed and cardio than brute power. It's too early to write Cain off and I won't be shocked if he beats Werdum, he's been that good, but I can't help thinking we've seen Cain's peak now. The injuries and layoffs have chipped away at him physically and the way Werdum beat him kind of took away that unstoppable aura he had.

[jimufctna24]

Really, it's just a game of hunches.

 

In reality, I haven't got a clue. There's are too many variables to consider. I want Werdum to win though.