Paid Members Carbomb Posted January 20, 2017 Paid Members Share Posted January 20, 2017 I think he could've been championship material if he had had the discipline. His showing against Fedor showed he had a shit-ton of potential, breaking the guy's nose with his first shot. Imagine that raw power, speed and strength, harnessed properly? Would've been terrifying. What a bloody waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members lambyUK Posted January 20, 2017 Paid Members Share Posted January 20, 2017 Bisping is out 5 months with a knee injury. The middleweight division is starting to be cleared up a little between matchmaking and injuries. With Rockhold still recovering from injury himself, is Whittaker vs. Romero the fight to make? I'd love to see that! Romero is the clear number 1 contender so I can't see him accepting anything other than a title fight. For me, Weidman vs Mousasi Rockhold vs Jacare (as the later will be Boetsch). Then see whomever is the most impressive to give the winner of the title fight. On top that there's permutations too. If Weidman wins he needs another win before a title shot after back to back losses so therefore it would default to Rockhold/Jacare. But if Mousasi wins then it becomes a lot more complicated. God knows what to do with Whittaker. Possibly Anderson Silva if he beats Brunson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members herbie747 Posted January 20, 2017 Paid Members Share Posted January 20, 2017 UFC are fucked aren't they? WME waaaaaay overpaid for it. They need $130m per year in profit just to pay the interest on the loan - that's interest only, without actually servicing any of the debt itself. But with Ronda gone & McGregor probably only fighting once this year (twice if they're lucky), they have no chance of reaching that profit number. They need 3 x McGregor level shows per year to make that payment - he knows that too. All of their shows do <300k buys without Conor or Ronda. Jones can probably do around 500k when he comes back, but that's still nowhere near McGregor numbers. Plus they have a lot of pissed off fighters, the Ali act, and the threat of multiple unions. They're also losing fighters to Bellator - sure, right now it's only guys like Rory McDonald, Benson Henderson, Matt Mitrione - but this year I reckon there'll be bigger names that UFC really should have kept, and it'll be a sign of things to come. I can see someone like Cain or Rockhold leaving for Bellator. It all adds up. To say the Fertittas got out at the right time would be an understatement. Cambell McLaren offered $2b a few years ago and refused to go any higher because he felt it wasn't worth more than that. That price seems about right to me. So unless UFC can pull a huge TV deal out of the bag starting in 2019, it's not gonna end well for them financially. Interesting times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members lambyUK Posted January 20, 2017 Paid Members Share Posted January 20, 2017 Completely agree. It's actually a worrying time for UFC fans at the moment. It's why we are seeing these ridiculous interim titles as they believe it adds prestige and buys to a PPV if a title is on the line. Basically they are fucking desperate. That said, in relation to the TV deal, I've read a few articles a while back saying they are expecting a huge increase on the new TV deal when it comes up for renewal so as you mention, that may lead to a more lucrative stream of a revenue that includes the deal itself and new sponsors. Cody Garbrandt has come a long at the perfect time for them mind. The guy could be a mega star by years end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members herbie747 Posted January 20, 2017 Paid Members Share Posted January 20, 2017 Yeah, the interim thing is really ridiculous. Holloway is essentially the interim interim FW champ. And Aldo is the interim FW champ, since most people still consider McGregor the FW champ. Well, I do anyway. I understand the argument that he has yet to defend it - but he was active & never lost it, which has never happened before. At the very least, it makes Aldo illegitimate - like when Cormier won it having just lost to Jones. And having an interim LW champ is just insane when McGregor only won that 2 months ago. Reeks of desperation. The TV deal is their only real lifeline - and who know how that'll go down..!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members Egg Shen Posted January 20, 2017 Paid Members Share Posted January 20, 2017 UFC are fucked aren't they? WME waaaaaay overpaid for it. They need $130m per year in profit just to pay the interest on the loan - that's interest only, without actually servicing any of the debt itself. But with Ronda gone & McGregor probably only fighting once this year (twice if they're lucky), they have no chance of reaching that profit number. They need 3 x McGregor level shows per year to make that payment - he knows that too. All of their shows do <300k buys without Conor or Ronda. Jones can probably do around 500k when he comes back, but that's still nowhere near McGregor numbers. Plus they have a lot of pissed off fighters, the Ali act, and the threat of multiple unions. They're also losing fighters to Bellator - sure, right now it's only guys like Rory McDonald, Benson Henderson, Matt Mitrione - but this year I reckon there'll be bigger names that UFC really should have kept, and it'll be a sign of things to come. I can see someone like Cain or Rockhold leaving for Bellator. It all adds up. To say the Fertittas got out at the right time would be an understatement. Cambell McLaren offered $2b a few years ago and refused to go any higher because he felt it wasn't worth more than that. That price seems about right to me. So unless UFC can pull a huge TV deal out of the bag starting in 2019, it's not gonna end well for them financially. Interesting times. whilst i see where you're coming from Herb, i'm fairly certain WME knew what they were getting into when they purchased the company, i'm also fairly certain a bunch of guys who have had that much business success would not have overpaid for the company if they didn't feel/know it was worth it to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members herbie747 Posted January 20, 2017 Paid Members Share Posted January 20, 2017 I still think they way overpaid, as do many Wallstreet analysists, and writers for Bloomberg, Forbes, & similar. It's not just my opinion - it's based on the numbers, which are easy to calculate. WME paid that price based on potential growth: not the value as it is today. That's a huge risk. They're counting on this TV deal being a whopper - but TV rights fees have peaked. ESPN just lost 10 million subscribers (worth about $80 million) which made it possible for ESPN to negotiate huge TV deals. WME misrepresented their EBITDA so they could be approved for the loan they required. They based their EBITDA off future earnings. The transaction was scrutinized by government regulators for its questionable buyout-loan strategy. The Fed warned Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank AG, the entities that marketed the debt to investors, of abuse in inflating earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. The EBITDA for the UFC was pegged at $170 million but then was estimated up to $300 million when presented to debt investors helping finance the sale. The higher EBITDA allowed WME borrow $1.8 billion for the deal without running afoul of the guidelines which prevent borrowing for more than 6x a company’s EBITDA. A WSJ article stated $48 million in expected “future step up payments to television contracts and other licensing agreements,” helped bring the EBITDA up to $300 million. Under the new owners, it is looking for $450 million per year for 10 years in next media rights deal. This would have bolstered the anticipated EBITDA of the company. Whether or not the UFC could garner $450 million is yet to be seen. We’ll see if there are buyers on the market this time next year. Regulators made a second reprimand to Goldman Sachs earlier this month. Sounds similar to what Enron did with their mark-to-market accounting techniques... value yourself based on what you reckon you'll be worth. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron_scandal#Mark-to-market_accounting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members ColinBollocks Posted January 20, 2017 Paid Members Share Posted January 20, 2017 I read an article on Bloomberg, a few months ago, about Goldman Sachs being warned about the high risk nature of the UFC buyout by those at the Federal bank. IIRC, they were worried about the projections, which they felt were unrealistic, seeing as they more than doubled the cash flow. I don't think you can underestimate how important their next TV deal is going to be for them. EDIT: Yeah, as Herbie said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members Egg Shen Posted January 20, 2017 Paid Members Share Posted January 20, 2017 Maybe there is some kind of weight behind the argument then. It's all abit much for my tiny brain to take though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members ColinBollocks Posted January 20, 2017 Paid Members Share Posted January 20, 2017 You're not totally wrong, Egg. WME are a big success and obviously fancy their chances of growing the company, so from a fans POV it could be a great thing. It's just there is an element of gamble involved with how they are projecting the prosperity of the UFC. It's why McGregor has so much power in his hands right now; if he packs it in or even takes the rest of the year off, they could be in rough shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members wandshogun09 Posted January 20, 2017 Paid Members Share Posted January 20, 2017 Yeah, this business talk may as well be in Japanese to me. But even a thicko like me is bracing myself for another 2014-like year lacking the really big fights. There'll still be some good stuff to sink your teeth into but after a really fun 2015/16 I can't really see what they could be lining up that will really get the old nips erect. Look at right now. 208 has some solid fights on it but it really lacks something. It looks more like a strong Fight Night than a PPV. 209 looks good. But what's on the horizon after that? The only fight that's really got me buzzing is Bisping vs Romero and that's only because I love both. The actual fight itself is probably going to be a complete mauling. Forget Conor even. Look at every other division. There's not much going on in any of the title pictures bar middleweight and featherweight. 205 is in terrible shape. Mighty Mouse and Joanna J have rinsed their divisions of challengers with their dominance. Lightweight is kind of on hold until McGregor comes back. Bantamweight is ice for months due to this Garbrandt/Dillashaw TUF. Women's featherweight is fucked before they've even crowned a champion because Cyborg pissed dirty. Women's 135 just lost its two biggest stars in Ronda and Miesha. I think the UFC are going to have to pull some shit out of the bag this year big time. No doubt McGregor is going to be less active this year, that's just the way it is. I can see them chucking more money Brock's way for sure. It's whether WWE green light it. And maybe they cave and give GSP what he wants. Either way though, those two will cost them at a time when they need to save money. So we might just be in for a bare bones year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members herbie747 Posted January 20, 2017 Paid Members Share Posted January 20, 2017 Fully agree, Wand - and a bare bones year means not making that huge interest payment... And that's just Year 1 of their loan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members ColinBollocks Posted January 20, 2017 Paid Members Share Posted January 20, 2017 IDK, with the telly deal coming up next year it's a bit of a risk basically taking some steam out of the brand, if they wish to go "bare bones" with mostly shows that will fail to generate buzz outside that 200k that always get the shows. They're clearly making moves to cut costs, but hampering PPV buys and general interest could be messy. With the money they're after, they can't afford to take a step back; as discussed, the next US TV contract(s) are vital in growing cash flow. I have no doubt they've tried to match up great fights for the announced shows, but it's no secret fighters are no longer shy in telling Dana either "no" or "ok, if you pay me this amount". It's going to be interesting to see how Dana and co work around this in the coming year. Also, this is maybe a discussion that is worthy of it's own thread, instead of clogging up this one, if a kind and butch mod fancies doing some magic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members Egg Shen Posted January 20, 2017 Paid Members Share Posted January 20, 2017 Yeah, this business talk may as well be in Japanese to me. But even a thicko like me is bracing myself for another 2014-like year lacking the really big fights. There'll still be some good stuff to sink your teeth into but after a really fun 2015/16 I can't really see what they could be lining up that will really get the old nips erect. Look at right now. 208 has some solid fights on it but it really lacks something. It looks more like a strong Fight Night than a PPV. 209 looks good. But what's on the horizon after that? The only fight that's really got me buzzing is Bisping vs Romero and that's only because I love both. The actual fight itself is probably going to be a complete mauling. Forget Conor even. Look at every other division. There's not much going on in any of the title pictures bar middleweight and featherweight. 205 is in terrible shape. Mighty Mouse and Joanna J have rinsed their divisions of challengers with their dominance. Lightweight is kind of on hold until McGregor comes back. Bantamweight is ice for months due to this Garbrandt/Dillashaw TUF. Women's featherweight is fucked before they've even crowned a champion because Cyborg pissed dirty. Women's 135 just lost its two biggest stars in Ronda and Miesha. I think the UFC are going to have to pull some shit out of the bag this year big time. No doubt McGregor is going to be less active this year, that's just the way it is. I can see them chucking more money Brock's way for sure. It's whether WWE green light it. And maybe they cave and give GSP what he wants. Either way though, those two will cost them at a time when they need to save money. So we might just be in for a bare bones year. Agree, but you can't predict anything in this game, Cody Garbranbdt being the perfect example,l. A month ago people were labelling him as someone who got his shot too early, that was a routine defence for Cruz, now he's seen as the sports newest potential superstar. Im not too worried going forward fight wise, the storylines kind of write themselves in MMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_mole Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 WME controls The Chinese super league, Wimbledon, several other sports rights, several Chinese based and negotiate for them worldwide, Ari Emanuel got them their deal with Fox, that guy knows how to sell things to major companies. Hell on that UFC Fox announcement years back, the English guy who runs Fox's US networks said it was Ari phoning him everyday that convinced him. Dana said it was him that got the UFC 206 replay put on Fox on Xmas eve and every network answers when he phones, it's not just the US, the company has contacts everywhere including China, they can try and piggyback of the growing popularity of the Chinese Super League and try and get some Chinese sponsors They can also bring in new big time investors or turn the UFC public but keep WME IMG private if they want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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