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Death of the Union.


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I’m very clueless about these things so please correct me if I’m wrong but I’ve always heard that NI has an ageing workforce with a large proportion of civil servants with lucrative pensions and also that NI has a high rate of its population receiving benefit assistance of some kind.

So the point was that it would cost a lot to run NI, which the ROI probably couldn’t afford .

 

 

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I'm an anti-unionist who wants England to be cut off and left to murder itself from within, and then for a Merseychester republic to emerge and declare independence from beneath the rubble. Fuck the U

England are only interested in a union of nations if they’re the ones in charge. I think a lot of English people subscribe to this. You hear them go on about how we are an island nation, so they don’t

I think only butch wants to submit to the iron rule of Cerys Matthews. 

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2 hours ago, David said:

It could apply, but going by the current financial requirements Scotland would not qualify for membership. 

I'm not even sure Scotland could afford independence at the moment. The COVID situation has made matters even worse. 

This isn’t true but the myth has persisted since 2014, Scotland meets all Copenhagen Criteria and there’s no reason why they wouldn’t be accepted for membership, sources from the EU have said so themselves, repeatedly. It wasn’t so long ago that the Bulgaria, Romania and Croatia joined, and the EU are currently working with other Balkan candidate countries moving towards membership. The idea that Scotland; a developed, diversified market economy wouldn’t be admitted to the EU on the grounds of finances just doesn’t hold up. The 3% deficit that everyone likes to bang on about is a target or a commitment to work towards, with no deadline. The three countries I mentioned above all joined the EU with a budget deficit in excess of 5%. 
 

And anyway, there’s no clear picture of Scotland’s finances, the best we have to work with is GERS Report and the holes in that are glaring, even for a layman. Have a look at the apportioned defence spending as a percentage of GDP, it puts Scotland between Israel and North Korea. It’s in the UK govt’s interest to paint as bad a picture of the bank balance as possible.
 

Ironically, it’s English Nationalism that has killed the Union.  There was never going to be pragmatic approach to Brexit, the Tories had to be seen to take the hardest line possible with the EU because that’s what their voters wanted. It was never about trade or fishing or the ECHR, it was about telling Johnny Foreigner “we don’t like you” and sensibly, the other home nations are distancing themselves as much as possible from that. Still today, when the signs of how much of a disaster it is and will continue to be, the guys I know who voted for Brexit still insist that it’s the EU’s fault and their intransigence shows we were right to leave, completely oblivious to the fact that this is 27 independent countries we are talking about but to them it doesn’t matter, it’s us and them. Whipped up by right-wing rags and championed by arseholes like Farage and Johnson, we’ve ended up with half the population who see everything through the prism of English exceptionalism, ignoring the fact that their house is falling in around them and their stick-it-to-the-man cheerleaders have actually been running the show for quite a long time now. 

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3 minutes ago, stumobir said:

This isn’t true but the myth has persisted since 2014, Scotland meets all Copenhagen Criteria and there’s no reason why they wouldn’t be accepted for membership, sources from the EU have said so themselves, repeatedly. It wasn’t so long ago that the Bulgaria, Romania and Croatia joined, and the EU are currently working with other Balkan candidate countries moving towards membership. The idea that Scotland; a developed, diversified market economy wouldn’t be admitted to the EU on the grounds of finances just doesn’t hold up. The 3% deficit that everyone likes to bang on about is a target or a commitment to work towards, with no deadline. The three countries I mentioned above all joined the EU with a budget deficit in excess of 5%. 
 

And anyway, there’s no clear picture of Scotland’s finances, the best we have to work with is GERS Report and the holes in that are glaring, even for a layman. Have a look at the apportioned defence spending as a percentage of GDP, it puts Scotland between Israel and North Korea. It’s in the UK govt’s interest to paint as bad a picture of the bank balance as possible.
 

Ironically, it’s English Nationalism that has killed the Union.  There was never going to be pragmatic approach to Brexit, the Tories had to be seen to take the hardest line possible with the EU because that’s what their voters wanted. It was never about trade or fishing or the ECHR, it was about telling Johnny Foreigner “we don’t like you” and sensibly, the other home nations are distancing themselves as much as possible from that. Still today, when the signs of how much of a disaster it is and will continue to be, the guys I know who voted for Brexit still insist that it’s the EU’s fault and their intransigence shows we were right to leave, completely oblivious to the fact that this is 27 independent countries we are talking about but to them it doesn’t matter, it’s us and them. Whipped up by right-wing rags and championed by arseholes like Farage and Johnson, we’ve ended up with half the population who see everything through the prism of English exceptionalism, ignoring the fact that their house is falling in around them and their stick-it-to-the-man cheerleaders have actually been running the show for quite a long time now. 

Do you think NI and Wales meet the criteria to be accepted to the EU ?

 

If not , how far off are they and what’s potentially preventing them from doing so ?

 

 

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4 hours ago, garynysmon said:

Why?

Honestly it’s just a personal perception thing so as I said , I’m very happy to be corrected on this...

I guess If you said what three countries seem like they could be fully independent states , in order I would say 

1. Scotland 

2. Wales 

3. Northern Ireland 

 

For Wales and NI, I guess I just see them being strong enough economies ultimately to be independent .

 

I am guessing tourism is the main import  for all, I can’t say I know Wales and NI to be great exporters and I am not sure what home grown businesses are huge there. Scotland seems to be stronger all round . 

 

Is GDP the best metric to measure if a country is “doing well” ?

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6 minutes ago, stumobir said:

The 3% deficit that everyone likes to bang on about is a target or a commitment to work towards, with no deadline.

Yes, which would require pretty serious austerity measures to be put in place by the Scottish government. The kind of austerity measures that the Scottish government railed against when it was the 'Tories who were implementing them.

And while there maybe wouldn't be a hard deadline, there would certainly be a requirement for some kind of display of good faith that these figures were being worked towards, so life as people in Scotland know it would change a hell of a lot. For the worse. Because with the required austerity would come further cuts to public services and it would be the people at the lowest rung on the societal ladder who'd pay the price. 

It certainly wouldn't be the people at the top footing the bill.

I'm as patriotic as the next guy, but when I last read a solid document on potential Scottish independence it basically read that we'd "be okay...probably" if we gained control of the north sea oil reserves and predicted oil would "likely" sell for $110 a barrel. Not to mention the white paper was taking into account an economy that wasn't blighted by the lockdowns of the past year.

What is oil worth today? Less than half that when I last looked a few weeks back. And that's after a rally of sorts over the past few months.

So while we could technically still apply, it would be entirely unworkable as the levels of austerity it would take to show the EU we were halfway serious in hitting their requirements would be absolutely crippling.

Throw in the uncertainty over the economy in Scotland post-COVID and, for me, it's not a risk worth taking at the moment. In fact, it should be the very least of the SNP's worries when you see their recent atrocious record in government in Scotland.

It's a hard no from me, Bob.

 

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6 minutes ago, RancidPunx said:

I can’t say I know Wales and NI to be great exporters and I am not sure what home grown businesses are huge there.

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8 minutes ago, David said:

Throw in the uncertainty over the economy in Scotland post-COVID and, for me, it's not a risk worth taking at the moment. In fact, it should be the very least of the SNP's worries when you see their recent atrocious record in government in Scotland.

It's a hard no from me, Bob.

People keep acting like we're in a financial crisis. We're not. We're in a severe health crisis with the associated economic impact. You can't make assumptions modeled on 2008.

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16 minutes ago, David said:

 

Yes, which would require pretty serious austerity measures to be put in place by the Scottish government. The kind of austerity measures that the Scottish government railed against when it was the 'Tories who were implementing them.

And while there maybe wouldn't be a hard deadline, there would certainly be a requirement for some kind of display of good faith that these figures were being worked towards, so life as people in Scotland know it would change a hell of a lot. For the worse. Because with the required austerity would come further cuts to public services and it would be the people at the lowest rung on the societal ladder who'd pay the price. 

It certainly wouldn't be the people at the top footing the bill.

I'm as patriotic as the next guy, but when I last read a solid document on potential Scottish independence it basically read that we'd "be okay...probably" if we gained control of the north sea oil reserves and predicted oil would "likely" sell for $110 a barrel. Not to mention the white paper was taking into account an economy that wasn't blighted by the lockdowns of the past year.

What is oil worth today? Less than half that when I last looked a few weeks back. And that's after a rally of sorts over the past few months.

So while we could technically still apply, it would be entirely unworkable as the levels of austerity it would take to show the EU we were halfway serious in hitting their requirements would be absolutely crippling.

Throw in the uncertainty over the economy in Scotland post-COVID and, for me, it's not a risk worth taking at the moment. In fact, it should be the very least of the SNP's worries when you see their recent atrocious record in government in Scotland.

It's a hard no from me, Bob.

 

Again, not true. If post 2008 economics has taught us anything it’s that a policy of austerity is the worst way of trying to bring down a deficit. The SNP, who wouldn’t govern an iScotland indefinitely anyway, have made it clear that growing the economy is how they’d hope to achieve this through a combination of borrowing (historically low interest rates) and foreign investment - Aberdeen, Edinburgh and Glasgow are in top 5 cities in the UK for foreign investment.

It’s clear you’ve made your mind up but to be honest, I expected a bit better than regurgitated lines from 2014. 

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England takes our water. If we could bring that under the auspises of a nationalised independent Wales it'd be a license to print money.

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53 minutes ago, stumobir said:

And anyway, there’s no clear picture of Scotland’s finances, the best we have to work with is GERS Report

Fucking Old Firm get their fingers in every pie

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13 minutes ago, Chest Rockwell said:

People keep acting like we're in a financial crisis. We're not. We're in a severe health crisis with the associated economic impact. You can't make assumptions modeled on 2008.

It doesn't make it any less of a risk though, does it? I may be looking at things a tad simple, but surely if and when this all lessens up the priority should be getting the economy and businesses who have suffered back on their feet, no? Or is spending millions of pounds on an independence referendum a good idea while we're trying to emerge from this crisis? Not to mention the inherent fallout from Brexit.

Much of the Scottish independence referendum last time around was centred around the oil reserves, and it's just a fact that the price has plummeted since then. Predictions of where we'd be post-referendum were way off. By 50%.

So no, I don't think it's a good idea to go chasing independence at the moment. In another ten years or so? Possibly. But I wouldn't be a fan of it in the next few years unless a solid financial case was made. Others can feel free to disagree, of course.

14 minutes ago, stumobir said:

Again, not true. If post 2008 economics has taught us anything it’s that a policy of austerity is the worst way of trying to bring down a deficit. The SNP, who wouldn’t govern an iScotland indefinitely anyway, have made it clear that growing the economy is how they’d hope to achieve this through a combination of borrowing (historically low interest rates) and foreign investment - Aberdeen, Edinburgh and Glasgow are in top 5 cities in the UK for foreign investment.

It’s clear you’ve made your mind up but to be honest, I expected a bit better than regurgitated lines from 2014. 

The reason much of what was said in 2014 is being regurgitated is because the issues raised by those who had their doubts then still haven't been answered. There's a reason why many voted no, and it's not all to do with nationalism or lack thereof. 

I'll tell you what though, I'd be incredibly interested to see what is put into a white paper for a new referendum. I'd be interested in seeing how those advocating for independence at this particular point in time will try to convince people like myself to vote in favour of it.

And I haven't made up my mind entirely. I'd read any new white paper with an open mind. I'd love to be convinced that Scotland could break from the UK, get back into the EU and not suffer in trying to hit the targets set by the EU. All during the fallout from a pandemic and lockdown.

Personally, I'd rather the Scottish government use the powers it currently has to do a better job than it has been doing of late before we go looking to expand our horizons.

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28 minutes ago, PowerButchi said:

England takes our water. If we could bring that under the auspises of a nationalised independent Wales it'd be a license to print money.

Don't forget HS2, which will actually divert trade away from Wales but we're still paying for. Ditto Trident.

Can't see an indy Wales having an expensive nuclear arsenal, can you?

Not just about raising funds but also not spending on projects we don't need or benefit from.

Defence spending would probably be modest and along similar lines to Ireland's, certainly not UK levels.

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