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Devon Malcolm

Labour Split / Independence Group

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Enjoying MPDTT's gimmick of championing doomed-to-fail splinter groups.

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If it turns out that only seven break away and no or around the same amount of Tories. Then the lot of them are going to look very stupid.

Anyone who believes that this is a good move is being naive.

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The people who cited racism as a reason for quitting Labour off to a flyer.  (Also, Ash Sarkar for the unconventional lovely girls thread)

 

 

  

Edited by Keith Houchen

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Much like 2016's failed coup I have a feeling that this stunt may end badly for them. Could very well be the end of their political careers.

Outside of social media bubbles I've seen no talk of "centrism" and the like. Most people upset with either party just drifted to UKIP.

Have this lot announced anything of substance so far?

Edited by The King Of Swing

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10 minutes ago, The King Of Swing said:

Outside of social media bubbles I've seen no talk of "centrism" and the like. Most people upset with either party just drifted to UKIP.

I don't think this is borne out in reality - I seem to remember reading that the widespread notion of "traditional" Labour members having shifted to UKIP was massively over-reported, and UKIP's rise was largely from ex-Tory voters who, post-EU referendum, have largely shifted back to the Tories, job done. 

That said, the implication there is that ex-Labour voters have either stopped voting altogether, or are spread thin across a variety of other parties, none of which is good news for Labour.

 

An interesting point raised by Jim Waterson on Twitter just now is that, despite being presented to the public as a political party, and looking for all extents and purposes like a political party, and is soliciting for donations like a political party, is actually a private company. Which means it's not bound by electoral law, and doesn't need to disclose its financial backers. 

That may be nothing, but it's not unreasonable to suggest it could set some alarm bells ringing as to who is funding this thing, why, and whether that's a bigger motivator than the MPs' principles.

 

 

Or, of course, it could be The Jews.

Edited by BomberPat

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26 minutes ago, The King Of Swing said:

Much like 2016's failed coup I have a feeling that this stunt may end badly for them. Could very well be the end of their political careers.

Outside of social media bubbles I've seen no talk of "centrism" and the like. Most people upset with either party just drifted to UKIP.

Have this lot announced anything of substance so far?

Or the opposite for their careers- perhaps they realise that no party standing on a socialist agenda has won an election for 45 years.....for a reason!

Labour has been destroyed by Momentum - this split in the parliamentary party was inevitable.

And even as a Tory remainer, I want to see a credible opposition - it's necessary for a healthy democracy. Given how Theresa May has handled Brexit, it's shocking that Labour are not well ahead in the polls.....and that's due to undoing all of Tony Blair's work to make the party electable.

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I'd argue that Blair did just as much to make the party unelectable after the fact, though. Blairism is dead, and he's as responsible as any single political figure for killing what little trust the public had in politicians. For all he achieved, he'll be remembered for the Iraq War above all else.

As much as Brexit is a poison chalice for Theresa May (or whoever is PM), it's not the open goal for the opposition that it so often gets painted as. No one who voted Brexit is getting the result they wanted for, because everyone voted for different reasons, no PM would be able to negotiate a preferential deal, and whoever happens to be in No. 10 at the time will end up falling on their sword, and likely ushered into political obscurity after the fact.

While pointing out that the PM is doing a terrible job of Brexit is easy, opposition isn't just about saying the other side are shit, you need to present alternatives - and there is no viable alternative Brexit. So the obvious answer seems to be to put the People's Vote on the table, or to combat Brexit - but does that risk alienating half the country? What do MPs in Leave-voting constituencies tell their constituents, if their Party's platform is to oppose what they voted for? And what genuine appetite is there for an anti-Brexit political party, given that it's the Lib Dem's platform and they're hardly setting the polls alight?

The entire situation is fucked.

 

To say that it's Momentum's fault for breaking up the party is reductionist, though. You could make similar arguments for Progress, and all manner of other special interest groups within and associated to Labour and, indeed, for Tony Blair sticking his oar in again. But ultimately, this is an argument that's as old as the Labour Party - if you follow the history of the party, you see this ideological struggle as to what they stand for, as to what extent they should be a Socialist party, repeated time and time again. It's not new. We've been here before, and we'll be here again.

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Thoroughly depressing but utterly predictable.

Chuka is the worst. A politician without an ounce of conviction or policies. He's a walking PR quote, and his attempts to be seen as a saviour to the centre is just faff.

The biggest thing is I don't actually get what their aim is? To push for a second vote? But what would they offer if they got this? And how do they go about doing this?

Anyway, by-elections are a must. Re-election means they have proved a point to the Labour leadership and might force Corbyn to change tact. Losing their seats will prove their stance is not popular among Labour supporters. They wont do it of course.

Overall its a bloody mess. The Tories are laughing. 10 more years of those born to rule bastards.

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Thing is, I don't believe for a second that the Tories don't also go through this kind of ideological power struggle all the time. They're just smart enough to do it behind closed doors, to keep their back-stabbing quiet except when it needs to be made public for the greatest possible impact, and they have no principles to toss aside when they do need to present a united front.  

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The only way you MIGHT see Tory MPs leave is if Boris became PM. He's deeply unpopular among large numbers of MPs. I think a few have already said they would walk if he got in. Ultimately though, the Tories know how to win. They crave power more.

Labour and the left are such broad ideas and encompass so much that its often hard to hit upon anything that everyone believes in, especially now.

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12 minutes ago, BomberPat said:

Thing is, I don't believe for a second that the Tories don't also go through this kind of ideological power struggle all the time. They're just smart enough to do it behind closed doors, to keep their back-stabbing quiet except when it needs to be made public for the greatest possible impact, and they have no principles to toss aside when they do need to present a united front.  

They've been feuding in the open for the last 2 years, but they're not stupid enough to actually cede the next election by splitting.  Even the most hang-em, flog-em ERG member understands the point of being in the party of power - and if 60 odd Tories left they'd genuinely represent a statistically significant party.

I think Corbyn's failure to take advantage of the division in the Conservatives is one of the great political misses of my life (HOW are they still behind in the polls) but this is just stupid.  I cannot see how this moves them any closer to their goal of a second referendum.

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1 minute ago, Loki said:

I cannot see how this moves them any closer to their goal of a second referendum.

I think they're angling for a Remain Coalition - they clearly want Tory Remainers to follow suit, and I expect they've reached out to Lib Dems and the SNP as well. I don't think it'll go well.

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To me it's not a surprise or a huge opportunity missed by Jeremy Corbyn to be ahead of the Conservatives or to not be ahead of the Conservatives by some massive margin.

Sure, the Tories are shit. Even by their standards, they're even more fucking putrid than they've always been. But what does that actually mean to the average voter? Nothing. Just like when Blair was successful and many Labour voters saw it as making the best of a bad situation, it's a case for many Tories that they'll keep voting for them because the alternative is not one they can possibly stomach.

They're not going to suddenly go out and vote Labour. Hardly anybody switches from Tory to Labour or the other way round. It's a huge ideological and political leap. Corbyn has actually done remarkably well considering that he is an unapologetic leftist (which is what the fucking Labour Party should be!) and because of all the centrists who claim they're leftists and suddenly shit themselves and jumped ship when he refused to be just another centrist Labour leader.

His reinvigoration of the youth vote was an incredible achievement. He made so many young people who saw all politicians as unapproachable actually care about politics. He shook me out of a lifetime of political apathy. He did the same with many others.

I think he is laying the groundwork for what will hopefully be a future of Labour governmental domination. I don't think we'll see a Labour government under him, but as long as Labour builds on what he has done, shows patience, and waits for their groundswell of youth, ethnic minority and sexual / gender minority support to have a huge effect on voting habits, there *should* be within a generation.

But if Labour shits itself and just appoints another Blairite then it will all have been for nothing and this country will never get anywhere.

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