westlondonmist Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 On a more serious note, I think the SNP are fucked at this election. Leader got ousted, the current leader is an old sissy and Murrell is in trouble. I don't see people trusting them with their vote. I think this is Labour's chance to take their seats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donald J Trump Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 4 minutes ago, westlondonmist said: On a more serious note, I think the SNP are fucked at this election. Leader got ousted, the current leader is an old sissy and Murrell is in trouble. I don't see people trusting them with their vote. I think this is Labour's chance to take their seats. They're not completely and utterly fucked. There's still a sizeable constituency that see them as the only viable vehicle for independence, and they have a dedicated hardcore of supporters who will stick with them through thick and thin. They will suffer a drastic reduction in MPs, but I think it'll stop short of a catastrophic wipe out. This isn't just a party that's been in power too long and run out of road. Domestically, it seems they've all but given up on trying to muster a convincing defence of their record. Whether it's quite as bad as some quarters would suggest depends on who you ask, but either way they've surrendered the narrative and allowed the idea that they've comprehensively failed to take root. Aside from delivery of services it's been a complete circus. Ive done a bit of work with the SNP over the years and met most of the characters involved, and I'm not surprised it's descended into farce. I expected it to end badly for Sturgeon. Probably not this badly, but for me the question is how she managed to maintain a relatively positive profile for so long as opposed to "where did it all go wrong?". I don't feel sorry for her. The biggest problem the SNP face is that it's impossible for them to draw a correlation between returning a high number of MPs and moving closer towards Independence. They won 56 out of 59 seats in 2015. It will never get better than that yet they were unable to capitalise on it, so people will ask what's the point of sending them to London in large numbers, especially when it makes a Tory government more likely. Even though Independence is still a big issue for a lot of people, they know it's not going to be on the ballot at this election. Rightly or wrongly getting the Tories out will be the priority, and constitutional matters will take a backseat for now. You could argue the SNP deserve some credit for ensuring the topic of Independence remains relevant, especially given the matter was supposed to be settled for a generation. I believe that's happened despite the SNP and not because of it. A long spell where the SNP are on the sidelines may even do the cause good. There are a significant number of people who will never vote yes, but I think theres a group who could be persuaded but are put off by all things SNP. Some separation between the cause and the party isn't the worst thing that could happen, as for many people Independence just brings to mind domestic failings and all the SNP personalities they don't like. There is a way back for the SNP, but I suspect it will be a completely different party that emerges from the ashes. On many issues, Scotland isn't nearly as progressive as some believe, and I think SNP 2.0 are either going to reflect that in the form of a very large church or there'll be a split. The current situation is largely a reflection of the fact that it's been impossible to manage that political reality and it's finally caught up with them.  Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith Houchen Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 Corbyn says he’s standing as an independent in Islington North. Obviously the funniest outcome would be Labour selecting one of their carpetbaggers desperately wanting a seat, like Mason or Izzard, and watching them lose. That’s going to be the seat with the most eyes on it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westlondonmist Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 15 minutes ago, Keith Houchen said: Corbyn says he’s standing as an independent in Islington North. Obviously the funniest outcome would be Labour selecting one of their carpetbaggers desperately wanting a seat, like Mason or Izzard, and watching them lose. That’s going to be the seat with the most eyes on it. Or a possible split vote and the Lib Dems taking it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperBacon Posted May 24 Author Share Posted May 24 15 minutes ago, Keith Houchen said: like Mason I think he said he's not running or pulled out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members Hannibal Scorch Posted May 24 Paid Members Share Posted May 24 3 minutes ago, westlondonmist said: Or a possible split vote and the Lib Dems taking it. Corbyn, like Abbott, are very popular local MP's considered to actually do something in their posts, I see Corbyn winning comfortably, same with Abbott whether she has to run as an independent or not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donald J Trump Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 1 minute ago, SuperBacon said: I think he said he's not running or pulled out. In time honoured tradition poor Paul failed to make the cut. He just can't get himself on the ballot can he? Some people appear to be able to waltz on, but the sausage machine just keeps spitting Mason back out again. I'm sure he'll pop up again in 5 years in another constituency he has no links to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperBacon Posted May 24 Author Share Posted May 24 A loser of the highest order  Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith Houchen Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 9 minutes ago, westlondonmist said: Or a possible split vote and the Lib Dems taking it. I doubt it. Corbyn is the very definition of a constituency MP. People vote for him, not for his party, because he fights their corner daily, regardless of their politics. If he can help, he will.  Being a good constituency representative goes a long way when it comes to voting. I know people who voted Tory because the MP is fighting their causes. As @Dead Mike said, local issues matter the most to the majority of people. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members JNLister Posted May 24 Paid Members Share Posted May 24 16 hours ago, Carbomb said: I think I'm missing something - post-war, Labour have been in power for roughly a total of 29 years, whilst the Tories have had 45. Even if you took out Heath's nearly four years, they've still got a decade more. EDIT: Sorry, I haven't had enough sleep. Turn Heath's four years into a Labour government, and it's roughly forty years to about thirty-three. So I see what you mean. Plus in this "corrected" timeline where they've been taking it in turns since 1951, the Conservatives are just finishing their third turn and Labour are just about to start their third. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donald J Trump Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 4 minutes ago, Keith Houchen said: Being a good constituency representative goes a long way when it comes to voting. I know people who voted Tory because the MP is fighting their causes. As @Dead Mike said, local issues matter the most to the majority of people. That's true. I've had dealings with all the councillors in our area for one reason or another, and the Tory one is by far the most competent and most helpful. I like most of the others, but they're pretty hopeless and live in a bit of a fantasy world. The Conservative guy is actually quite good at what he does, and people have noticed. I still wouldn't vote for him though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members Dead Mike Posted May 24 Paid Members Share Posted May 24 22 minutes ago, Keith Houchen said:  Being a good constituency representative goes a long way when it comes to voting. I know people who voted Tory because the MP is fighting their causes. As @Dead Mike said, local issues matter the most to the majority of people. Dogshit, bin collections & potholes! I've not done any canvassing for a bit but my old dear is very active with the local Labour party. She tells me that public services & infrastructure are the biggest gripes by far. The only people mentioning 'stopping the boats' are either retirees in the most affluent areas or people in the poorest. This is completely anecdotal of course but mildly interesting nonetheless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperBacon Posted May 24 Author Share Posted May 24 20 minutes ago, Dead Mike said: Dogshit, bin collections & potholes! Sounds like the chorus to an Idles song. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members Carbomb Posted May 24 Paid Members Share Posted May 24 Almost fits "sex and drugs and rock n' roll". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members FLips Posted May 24 Paid Members Share Posted May 24 Can someone ELI5 what ramifications all of these MPs stepping down has? Am I right in thinking any of them defending a seat now has to find and promote a replacement in the next month and a bit? Is it a matter of rats fleeing a sinking ship or is there wisdom in it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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