UFC 201: Lawler vs Woodley

[seanz25]

Such a weird card, other than the main event there's really nothing that would have me buying this at $60 a pop, first PPV card in a long time I won't be watching live instead will sleep and watch the morning.

 

Think this one does a poor butyrate. Lawler usually draws fairly well for who he is to, but the lack of anything on this card otherwise for casuals is gonna hurt it.

[wandshogun09]

I doubt the UFC are expecting a big buyrate for this one though. Can't win them all. They're coming off the back of three stacked PPVs in a row so we were due a weaker one really. And they've had a decent first half of the year with 196 being the second biggest PPV in company history. 200 probably did very well with the Brock factor/200 milestone thing as well, although it reportedly didn't do as well as 100 or 196. And they've got 202 in a few weeks which should be huge. 201's just a stopgap.

 

I also think we will be seeing an upset in the main event. Woodley has KO power on top of his strong wrestling game. Lawler's wars may also finally have caught up to him too.

 

The closer it's getting I've got a bad feeling you're right. I don't know why really though. Woodley, despite his physical gifts and explosiveness, hasn't looked great in a while and hasn't fought in ages. He couldn't stop Kelvin Gastelum so I don't know why I'm fearing he'll KO Robbie Lawler...but I am. I think Lawler should win this. I think he's the more skilled MMA fighter, I think he's tougher, he's got the experience in 5 rounders and he's proven he can not only hang for 5 rounds, he gets stronger as the fight goes on. Whereas Woodley, the knock on him is he fades as the fight goes on. I actually think that's a bit overplayed myself. I don't remember him ever gassing badly as a fight has gone on. But I do think he's the type of fighter who, if he doesn't get you out of there early on he becomes less dangerous and can be shut down. Kind of like Rumble, I guess.

 

I'm pretty split on this one prediction-wise. I'm still leaning towards Lawler. I think he's tough enough to weather the Woodley storm and if it goes into round 3, 4 and 5 I think he brings the pain to Woodley then and stops him. But there's something nagging away every time I think of the fight, where I keep picturing Lawler starting slow again and Woodley just blitzing him. I think it's just my usual thing of expecting the worst though, to cushion the blow if it does happen.

[Guy Bifkin]

I'm looking forward to it but certainly won't be staying up for it. There is a fighter I really enjoy watching in every match on that main card. 

 

I'm definitely favouring Woodley for no other reason than it's been that kind of year. I really hope Lawler puts a schooling on him though.

[Egg Shen]

yep, that kind of year is right. I don't fancy Woodley down the stretch though.

[Egg Shen]

ive jinxed it wand.

 

Scoggins/Creepy is off, Scoggins had problems cutting weight.

[David]

Fucking hell. Is McCall getting a replacement?

[Chunk]

Nah, you're all crazy. Lawler beats him easily for me.

 

Based solely on Embedded, I think Rose convincing wins too. Seems too focused and determined to slip up.

[wandshogun09]

As long as Lawler vs Woodley, Namajunas vs Kowalkiewicz and Rivera vs Perez stay intact, I can live with these other pullouts.

 

Based solely on Embedded, I think Rose convincing wins too. Seems too focused and determined to slip up.

You might be right but I wouldn't write off Kowalkiewicz. It might not be a case of whether Rose 'slips up' or not. She could fight the fight of her life and Kowalkiewicz still might beat her. We just don't know enough about Kowalkiewicz yet. She might have peaked already or she could be the champion in waiting for all we know. She hasn't looked amazing so far but she's been getting the job done. She's a bit of a mystery at the minute to me. Always hard to judge with undefeated fighters. And Rose is beatable. Don't forget she lost to Carla Esparza not too long ago. She's bounced back with a few nice wins but Angela Hill was green as fuck. The VanZant and Torres wins were good but she's still putting it all together. This is going to be a test. These European women like Kowalkiewicz and Shevchenko always seemed to go overlooked for some reason. I'm really unsure who wins this though, because of the question marks on Kowalkiewicz. We don't know what her ceiling is yet, or even really what her weaknesses are.

[ColinBollocks]

I'll be proper devastated if Lawler loses, but it's coming. The way he fights and the punishment he's endured just in the last year is surely going to catch up with him. He's truly the most exciting champion in the UFC and my favourite fighter for those very reasons, though.

 

I guess the game plan for Lawler should always be to try and get him early doors, because he always seems to make up for his slow start via superhuman madness.

[Egg Shen]

ive gone with Karlina in my bet.

 

Karolina, Masvidal, Perez and Krylov. £5 returns £50.

[Carbomb]

I'm probably jinxing it, but I'm thinking Lawler probably has about two more wars left in him. I've been left with the distinct impression that he has a Diaz-esque hatred of his own brain; when he "Lawlers Up" and starts smiling like a serial killer, I can't shake the feeling he's thanking his opponent for smashing it up for him.

 

For me, there's no real upside to Woodley winning - I don't find him all that interesting a fighter, plus Lawler's a really interesting champion not just for his fighting style, but also because his reign has been very good value: his wins over Condit and Hendricks were split decisions, so there's potential for re-matches there (sure, Hendricks isn't what he used to be, so their rubber match, if it happens, will probably come after Lawler loses the belt), especially with Condit. I'm hoping Lawler holds on to the belt long enough for a fight with Wonderboy.

 

Don't know what to make of Namajunas. Clearly talented, but she seems to lack stability in her performances; very temperamental. Until she puts a string of really convincing wins together over top opposition, I wouldn't care to put any bets on her.

[wandshogun09]

Rose is on a good little string of wins, to be fair. She's beat Angela Hill, Paige VanZant and Tecia Torres in a row. She finished Hill quick, completely beasted Paige and finished her and, although she wasn't able to stop Torres, she won a unanimous decision and avenged one of her only two career losses.

 

People might try to diminish that by saying 'well Hill, VanZant and Torres' are all fairly inexperienced', and they wouldn't be wrong. But Rose is only 7 fights into her pro career herself.

 

It's a really tough fight to call, IMO. Because not only is Kowalkiewicz a bit of an unknown quantity, Rose is so unpredictable and sometimes reckless. I can see it being a really good fight. Just 50/50 on who wins. Well, I think in probably swaying 51/49 towards Kowalkiewicz. Today anyway.

[herbie747]

Woodley has no chance here - and I feel confident saying that. He has nothing. He has average striking and gasses early. And it's only a matter of time until USADA get him.

[ColinBollocks]

Christ, Herbie going all in.

 

Out of who Lawler has defeated over the last couple of years, Woodley is definitely one of the weaker opponents - let's not forget he hasn't fought in so long. However, Bisping's Law.

[wandshogun09]

Yeah, don't tempt fate Herbie.

 

Logically, I think Lawler is clearly the better fighter. A better striker, better cardio, experience in 5 round fights, he's been more active recently, has insane toughness, amazing defensive wrestling and that bit of crazy murderer in him that I think Woodley lacks.

 

As long as Lawler gets through that first round I think he'll gradually up the violence until Woodley's breathing through his pisshole, then he'll smash his cranium. But it's just that combination of Lawler starting slow in recent fights + Woodley starting strong that has me worried.

 

I think Lawler wins. And I actually think Wonderboy is the potential banana skin in Lawler's future. I think he's the one guy in the division Lawler mightn't be able to outstrike.