The UKFF Betting Topic

[Ron&Hermione]

For those who bet horses. Has analytics hit the sport in the same way it has many others over the last 5 years?

 

It's something I've never bet on, besides from the national for fun, and just interested in how people pick horses.

 

What kind of analytics go into the choosing, is there a whole database with various horses, weather conditions, times. Stuff like that? Or is it more like the Ladbrokes advert where the guy looks into the eyes of the horse and chooses him?

 

It really seems like an interesting sport to bet on if you had all the data at hand.

 

 

Just to say, whilst I haven't bet in ages, I do keep up with nba/ncaa a lot. So i will write a review before the NCAA tourney, as that's a place where you really can bet and make money. I have for the last few years, the quantity of games makes it ideal.

 

As for the NBA, just bet on the Celtics to cover every game, The Knicks under and the Denver over... Those seem very safe as it stands (yes I'm prepared to look like an idiot when I get proved wrong!).

[Brock Goldberg]

Any tips for Friday's Cheltenham races ?

Peace and Co

Many Clouds

 

Will be backing both of the above.

 

Good luck if you follow.

[Max Power]

It depends really. There's obviously the general form book/racing post website/etc that chronicle all races/horses. This will tell you what the ground was, the distance it ran over, whether it made the running, whether it jumped well etc. That way, you can take a look at a horse running and say "this horse cannot win today as it's never even placed over as far as three miles. What's more, it's put up all it's best performances on good ground, and as it's pissed it down for the last week or so the ground today is very soft".

 

With the big meetings like Cheltenham or Aintree, I use previous trends to pick the winners. If you search through this thread for April last year, you'll find that this actually worked for the Grand National - I've no idea to post the link, but it's only about five pages back (EDIT: on page 179 of the thread). Using this method, you effectively eliminate horses who cannot win due to age/weight carried/inexperience etc. The bets I've put up this week are also using this method - but they've been pretty wank thus far. Sometimes the difficulty is that you get more than one qualifer in each race.

 

I'll put up today's selections now (but actually 'show my working'). I'm more condifent today than the last two days.

 

RACE ONE

 

Slightly difficult as this race has only existed for the last four years in its current guise. But, three of the four winners were trained in Ireland. Eight of the twelve top three finishers over the years won their previous start. Also note horses who had run well at the Festival before. This leaves a shortlist of:

APACHE STRONGHOLD (5/1)
VAUTOUR (7/4)

 

RACE TWO

 

Initially looked a minefield. Twenty Four runners. Horses over the age of 8 have won the last seven renewals. But, horses aged 10 or over have only a 3% strike rate at the Festival overall. So you're looking for an 8 or 9 year old. This particularly race is a final - a series of qualifiers are run throughout the season. Qualification is gained by earning a top eight finish in one of these qualifiers. The qualifier run at Cheltenham in October has provided the winner on a number of occasions. Shortlist:

BIG EASY (14/1)

KATKEAU (33/1)

SYRABITE (20/1)

 

RACE THREE

 

16 of the 20 winners and runners up (last ten years) had won at Cheltenham before. Six the race was upgraded to a Grade One race, 6 of the 7 winnes had already won a race at that level. No Irish trained winner to date from 28 runners. There are only two course winners in the field who have won at Grade One level - but they are quite big priced. Not expecting miracles in this race.

TAQUIN DE SEUIL (14/1)

UXIZANDRE (22/1)

 

RACE FOUR

 

Nine of the last ten winners had won on their previous start. No five year old has ever won. The last 14 winners started in the first four in the bettong (not a race of outsiders). No winner aged 10 or over since 1998. No horse that finished unplaced in this race last year has ever come back to win.
LIEUTENANT COLONEL (9/1)

SAPHIR DU RHEU (13/2)

 

RACE FIVE

 

Another potential pin job. 24 runners. 25 or the last 27 winners were rated 141 or lower (which relates to a weight of 10-12 in this race). 19 of the last 23 winners had run well at the Festival before. Front runners do well.

ATTAGLANCE (12/1)

CHAMPION COURT (25/1)

MONETAIRE (15/2)

 

RACE SIX

 

No real trends in this one to speak of. The best ones are: Last 6 winners carried more than 11-6. The last 15 winners ran over 3 miles last time out. 21 of the 24 win and place positions of the last six years have been filled by non claiming jockeys (this is a race for amateur jockeys - and a non claiming jockey means that the jockey has ridden a certain number of winners and is therefore more experienced)

GRANDAD'S HORSE (33/1)

CLONDAW KNIGHT (20/1)

GOLD BULLET (11/1)

 

Because I only play to relatively small stakes there's no point in backing short price favs. Therefore today I've dabbled on:

 

APACHE STRONGHOLD - 5/1

KATKEAU - 33/1

SYRABITE - 20/1

TAQUIN DU SEUIL - 14/1

UXIZANDRE - 22/1

SAPHIR DU RHEU - 13/2

ATTAGLANCE - 12/1

CHAMPION COURT 25/1

GRANDAD'S HORSE - 33/1

CLONDAW KNIGHT - 20/1.

 

But if it winks at you, you're really in.

Edited March 12, 2015 by Max Power

[shaneojack]

 

Because I only play to relatively small stakes there's no point in backing short price favs. Therefore today I've dabbled on:

 

 

I had a few hours on my hands and a couple quid in my account left so I stuck 10p each way on the 10 horses you suggested.. i'm on £2.60 profit so far. Cheers haha. 

[Callum1993]

Made £164 today! Got £72 on Call the Cops. Then £92 on some random American race.

[Hounds Of Justice]

Any tips for tomorrow's races please Max Power ?

[Max Power]

Yesterday was pretty good - Uxizandre winning at 22/1 left me well up, and Apache Stronghold placed too. Same criteria today, using past trends to eliminate horses. Can't be bothered to type everything out, but the qualifiers today are:

 

RACE ONE - Hargam/Kalkir/Top Notch

RACE TWO - Dormello Mo/Max Dynamite/Ebony Express

RACE THREE - Blaklion/Martello Tower/

RACE FOUR - Road To Riches/Carlingford Lough

RACE FIVE - No Loose Change/Paint The Clouds

RACE SIX - Noble Endeavour/McKinley

RACE SEVEN - Blood Cotil/Dresden/Grumeti

 

I reckon if you pick any of the above, they should give you a run for your money at decent prices. It's pissed it down overnight though at Cheltenham, so it may pay to double check which of the above prefer soft ground (which I haven't done yet). As I'm out on the lash all day today, I've put my bets on now.

 

KALKIR - 22/1

MAX DYNAMITE - 16/1

DORMELLO MO - 33/1

BLAKLION - 14/1

CARLINGFORD LOUGH - 11/1

PAINT THE CLOUDS - 9/2

McKINLEY - 12/1
BLOOD COTIL - 9/1
DRESDEN - 25/1
GRUMETI - 20/1

[Van Dammer]

For those who bet horses. Has analytics hit the sport in the same way it has many others over the last 5 years?

 

It's something I've never bet on, besides from the national for fun, and just interested in how people pick horses.

 

What kind of analytics go into the choosing, is there a whole database with various horses, weather conditions, times. Stuff like that? Or is it more like the Ladbrokes advert where the guy looks into the eyes of the horse and chooses him?

 

It really seems like an interesting sport to bet on if you had all the data at hand.

 

 

The shrewd punters wil have very complex databases with stats and info that just isnt readily available. I used to have a client who would record the timings of every horse in a particular race as well as wind speeds, the incline of the track amongst other very anal things. He then created some algorithms to come up with a selection process and he became very successful with it. People like this wont be sharing their info or databases though as its a painstaking process to do it al

There will also be trading syndicates who do similar and make a living off it and will be very thorough with the info they keep and will always be looking for new and different angles that others havent look at yet. Generally with Horse Racing, if you like it enough to be prepared to look at it in incredible detail and basically do it as a full time job in some cases, you will make money from it.

 

Of course there are also people like that awful Ladbrokes advert and its those mugs that keep the bookmaking world spinning.

 

The reason I dont like horse racing though is that its such a secretive world. Owners, trainers, jockeys and stable staff know so much about their horses, trainers regularly send their horses out to lose or with no hope of winning to boost its price for a later date so they can lump on. There was a situation not so long ago with a very famous former owner (cant believe im struggling to remember his name), he basically got 4 or 5 horses home in the same day and made millions from backing them all in multiples and accas but he did it by sending them out constantly for months before and having them pull up injured, fall, tail off last and basically put in a bad performance so that in one day all of those horses would be much bigger prices than they should have been and they all hacked up. What was ridiculous about that day was that general punters thought it was great that he was sticking it to the bookies but in actual fact they were the ones that paid for it as theyd been backing all of his horses on the previous runs when they had no intention of winning.

 

Barney Curley, that was it:

http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2014/mar/03/barney-curley-2m-betting-coup

[Ron&Hermione]

Wow, that's actually amazing to hear about how owners/trainers do that. Not really surprising given how secretive that world seems.

 

Anyway, for those who play poker, just a heads up that the Sunday Million this week has a $9million guarantee, so top spot is going to be over $1million.

 

It's quite easily the best tournament with the greatest value ever. If you can play anywhere near competently then you have to play it, it's that great of value.

 

If you don't want to pay the $215 to buy in directly then there are thousands of satellites to play from like $1 or whatever.

 

I can't hype this tournament up enough, it's going to be a blood bath but at the same time $1million from a $215 buy in? That's just too good to pass up playing.

[Hounds Of Justice]

Clawed back all my losses from Friday and today on Burnley beating Man City lol.

[icke83]

Hi, I just wondered if any one has any tips for where I can best stick a tenner this weekend on a sporting event (or a fiver on a couple of different ones)? Thanks, Arran

[drkopen]

I've gone with

 

Hearts

Celtic

Burton

Leeds

Blackburn

Tottenham

Arsenal

and Brentford

 

On an ACCA @ 83/1

 

Normally don't like different kick off times but Brentford look like money

[icke83]

Thanks for that, i'll have a punt

[Max Power]

Here's your Grand National winner: Firstly, no teenager has won since 1923 (none even placed since 1969), so dear old TIDAL BAY is eliminated. As is SWING BILL. Then at the other end of the scale, the drought for seven year olds is almost as long (1940), so bye bye TRIOLO D'ALENE and KRUZHLININ. On a similar note, only one eight year old has won in the last twenty years (the reason probably being that they lack experience of big fences and lots of runners) so ta ta DOUBLE SEVEN, BUCKERS BRIDGE, OUR FATHER, VINTAGE STAR, TWIRLING MAGNET, VESPER BELL and ROCKY CREEK. That's over a quarter of the field zonked due to their birth certificates. Onwards and upwards... The next Fonzie stat to take note of is horses arriving here who haven't run in a while. This usually means that they're revved up and mad keen as they haven't been out their stable yard in a while. Using two months (1981 the last time a winner hadn't run for more than this) as the cut off, this eliminates BATTLE GROUP, PRINCE DU BEAUCHENE, THE RAINBOW HUNTER, ROSE OF THE MOON and ALVARADO (note, some horses are in more than one of the categories so far, but as they're already eliminated I can't be arsed to type them again). The next thing to look at is stamina. Has the horse won over at least three miles before? Every winner since 1970 already had done so. Three mile virgins include WALKON, LAST TIME D'ALBAIN and HUNT BALL. Similarly to stamina, the amount of weight carried is also an issue. Only two runners in the last 18 years have carried more than 11 stone to victory, so I'll wipe off everything above this weight. Ta ra LONG RUN and QUITO DE LA ROQUE. The final negative trend to apply, is can they jump? Even though the fences have been modified recently, there's still 30 of them to navigate. Horses that have fallen on three or more occasions in their careers so far are not for me - COLBERT STATION and GOLAN WAY are discarded. So I've elimiated 23 horses, leaving me to work with 17 (deep breath), which is still a long list. To streamline this, 16 of the last 24 winners were aged in double figures, so anything aged nine is getting the elbow here. MONBEG DUDE, BIG SHU, MOUNTAINOUS, HAWKES POINT, RAZ DE MAREE an ONE IN A MILAN. Down to 11. BALTHAZAR KING WAYWARD PRINCE MR MOONSHINE TEEFORTHREE ACROSS THE BAY LION NA BEARNAI BURTON PORT CHANCE DU ROY PINEAU DE RE THE PACKAGE SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM What I will do now is eliminate horses who have never raced over the Grand National fences before - either this race, or thr four others ran over the fences during the year. This ciao's WAYWARD PRINCE, LION NA BEARNAI and BURTON PORT, leaving us with 8 - which is still probably 2 or 3 too many for a shortlist to be backing them now. The final round of cuts will be the three horses who have run in the race before (going against a trend I know), and blatantly did not stay. BALTHAZAR KING, SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM and ACROSS THE BAY have all run well before in this race for at least one lap of the course, but then faded late on when their stamina ran out. (Having said that, I would not be suprised if Balthazar and Shakalaka improve this time as they are now both aged ten, and so were running in the race before when they were young and perhaps did not have the required stamina). FINAL SHORTLIST MR MOONSHINE TEEFORTHREE CHANCE DU ROY PINEAU DE RE THE PACKAGE All are decent each way prices (apart from Teaforthree) and with a bit of luck, all should give you a good run for your money. As an added bonus, I'll even give you the order in which they finish. THE PACKAGE (finished third at Cheltenham and the two horses who beat him both won yesterday) TEAFORTHREE PINEAU DE RE CHANCE DU ROY MR MOONSHINE Even if 13 year old top weight Tidal Bay wins I'll not mind, because this has killed a lovely hour of work this morning.

 

As I've been bored today at work, and the great race is only a week away, I've appiled the above trends again. Can't be bothered to type the whole thing out, but the qualifiers are as follows:

 

REBEL REBELLION - 40/1

AL CO - 33/1

ALVARADO - 20/1

PORTRAIT KING - 66/1

 

The horses below miss out on one stat, but for various reasons it would be foolish to discount them.

 

ACROSS THE BAY (failed in this race twice, but has been unlucky)

CHANCE DU ROY (finished 6th last year)

MONBEG DUDE (finished 7th last year)

PINEAU DU RE (very rare for back to back winners)

[FUM]

Balthazar King is your National winner, lads.