UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs Pena - Jan 28

[wandshogun09]

We're back on Big FOX on January 28th. And the UFC returns to Denver, the scene of UFC 1! It's a pretty tidy looking card as well.

 

Check out the old school throwback poster!

 

 

FOX MAIN CARD

Valentina Shevchenko vs Julianna Pena

Donald Cerrone vs Jorge Masvidal

Andrei Arlovski vs Francis Ngannou

Alex Caceres vs Jason Knight

 

FOX SPORTS 1 PRELIMS

Nate Marquardt vs Sam Alvey

Raphael Assuncao vs Aljamain Sterling

Li Jingliang vs Bobby Nash

Luis Henrique da Silva vs Jordan Johnson

Eric Spicely vs Alessio Di Chirico

Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs Jeremy Kimball

 

FIGHT PASS PRELIMS

Eric Shelton vs Alexandre Pantoja

Jason Gonzalez vs JC Cottrell

 

There's been stronger FOX cards but this one ain't bad at all. Some really good stuff on there.

 

 

Shevchenko vs Pena is most likely a number one contenders match. I'm very interested to see how this one goes.

 

Shevchenko is 13-2 in MMA and she's coming off the biggest win of her career against Holly Holm in July. She looked great in that fight as well. A lot of people were sleeping on Shevchenko going into that fight and writing her off as a stepping stone fight to build Holm for something bigger. She came in and beat Holm at her own game - counter striking, timing and precision striking. It shouldn't have been a huge shock either. She's got an extensive background as a striker. From Kickboxing to Muay Thai to Taekwondo to Boxing. And she's a black belt in Judo on top of that. Her only UFC loss is to Amanda Nunes but she took Nunes to a decision, which is almost a moral victory in itself. She's nobody to overlook.

 

Pena is 8-2 and is also coming off her biggest career victory over Cat Zingano at UFC 200. Before that she outpointed Jessica Eye who's also a solid fighter despite her crap UFC record. Where Pena's excelled most in her fights is her takedowns and top game.

 

So on paper, you'd think there's a clear strategy for both here. It looks like a typical striker vs grappler matchup. Pena will throw on the feet but she's very sloppy in the standup. If she stands with Shevchenko she's going to be outgunned big time. And who knows? With Shevchenko's Judo background maybe she can hang with, or at least nullify, Pena in grappling exchanges. Good fight this, I'm leaning towards Shevchenko.

 

 

Cerrone vs Masvidal is this card's ***WAND'S ONE TO WATCH***. Can't really go wrong. Masvidal has been much better to watch since going up to welterweight and Cowboy's Cowboy. Cerrone lobbied hard to get on this card and Masvidal had called him out. Masvidal is coming in off back to back wins over Ross Pearson and Jake Ellenberger. And Cerrone just kicked Matt Brown's head off at UFC 206 in an incredible fight. Can't see any way this doesn't deliver. Both are on top form and both want to fight each other.

 

 

Over/under on Arlovski vs Ngannou going past a round? This is the litmus test for Ngannou. Say what you want about Arlovski and he's had some bad losses recently but he's still handy and his striking is always dangerous. I've got a good feeling about Ngannou though. He hasn't fought anyone good yet but he's done what he was supposed to do to the level of guys he has been in with. There's good reason to be optimistic about him, IMO. If Ngannou can beat Arlovski who's a former UFC champion, a big name and a bit of a legend then he's arrived and it's time to pull the trigger and start putting him in big fights. I love Arlovski but I actually hope Ngannou shines here. I like the big lump and fuck knows the Heavyweight division needs him!

 

 

Marquardt vs Alvey is a fun fight. Not really sure what Marquardt has left at this stage. If fighter years were measured like dog years, Marquardt would be about 325 now. He's 37 so he's not really that old but he's been around forever. He's had a long ass career. Patchy win one, lose one recent record but he stopped Tamdan McCrory last time out. There's some fight in the old dog yet. And Alvey was mega active in the second half of last year and won his last 3 fights. Could go a few ways with this but I could see it potentially stealing the show.

 

 

Assuncao vs Sterling is a cracking fight. It was originally scheduled for the Black Beast Fight Night in December but injuries ballsed it up. I'm glad they rescheduled it though. Although they're both coming off losses this feels like a relevant fight in the bantamweight division to me. I think the winner could get themselves back in the mix pretty quickly if they have an impressive showing here.

 

 

Lombard vs Tavares is another good one. Tavares is a tough Hawaiian scrapper but I can't really see him holding up too long to Lombard's firepower. We'll see though. Lombard has been more beatable since USADA came in and he failed that test. Still fun to watch but he doesn't look an unstoppable now. I still think he probably wins this one though. In violent fashion.

 

Looking forward to this show a lot.

[ColinBollocks]

Tell you what, this is a great card. I want to see everything on it, which is rare. The main event has me all kinds of excited. Sheva has come on a treat the past year and Pena has shown she's worthy of a title shot several times.

[Philjax]

Pena for me. If she hadn't got injured for two years I'd have already had her as champ. Rousey would have been exposed years ago.

[WeeAl]

Thanks for posting all these Wand, you really have me geared up for the next couple of months when I was starting to feel it might be a bit of a downer after the last run of events. Your preview threads have reminded me there are a lot of exciting fights on the horizon. Cowboy v Masvidal could be a barn burner.

[Egg Shen]

yeah, much appreciated wand. these things are always a nice little read.

 

Quick thing you forgot to mention though. John Phillips debuts on the undercard, the 3rd Welshman to join the UFC. He's been around a while but he's gonna be fun to follow, 18 KO's in 21 wins, there ain't gonna be many people in the UFC who will want to stand and bang with him. From what i can gather the fight will be at 205lb, Phillips has campaigned at 185lb previously but shockingly missed weight by 13lb for his last BAMMA title fight (he was the champ!). Surprised the UFC even picked him up after that if him honest but they have!

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B8Rmih0HBbQ

 

the nickname "The White Mike Tyson" has got to go though.

[Chunk]

Thanks for posting all these Wand, you really have me geared up for the next couple of months when I was starting to feel it might be a bit of a downer after the last run of events. Your preview threads have reminded me there are a lot of exciting fights on the horizon. Cowboy v Masvidal could be a barn burner.

 

Likewise.

 

Love that throwback promo poster too - great stuff.

[Egg Shen]

Cerrone/Masvidal is the "main event" here for me, i feel Pena/Shevchenko are being given the slot to give them that big time rub because they are priming those two for the title shot against Nunes.

 

I have no issue with that but i feel Cerrone/Masvidal is gonna be the kind of fight where we'll be begging for two extra rounds.

[wandshogun09]

Pena for me. If she hadn't got injured for two years I'd have already had her as champ. Rousey would have been exposed years ago.

I don't see that at all. Pena is a good fighter but I don't think she'd ever have been the one to stop Rousey. I get that it's popular now to act like everyone would've beat Rousey but I really don't see it with Pena. I think her aggression would've played right into Ronda's game back then, she's mostly a grappler which also would've benefitted Ronda and her striking is sloppy as fuck. It's not like she has a tricky counter striking style like Holm or brutal and accurate striking like Nunes. I think she'd have been in the armbarred inside a round gang myself.

 

I could see Shevchenko giving Ronda grief back then if she'd come along sooner though. Although she mightn't have had the power to really put it to Ronda, I think she could've potentially outpointed her with a counter strike gameplan.

[Carbomb]

I got into a debate with a friend of mine who's one of those holding the opinion that Ronda was never really any good, because all she had was her judo and the psychological advantage of everyone else being scared of it.

 

I argued him down a bit, using the Royce Gracie example (although he did try to shift the goalposts a little by saying he thinks that Royce was a great competitor, but never a great fighter), but the main thrust of his point was that nobody had to evolve their skills or physical condition to beat Rousey, they just needed someone like Holm to lay out an anti-Rousey blueprint. Basically, he was saying that most of the top-level people Rousey beat already had all the tools beat her, they just didn't have the gameplan or the psychological edge to apply them. He also reckons that the actual blueprint itself was so simple, it's indicative of Rousey not being any good. Additionally, he doesn't think the "she was dominant in an early era for WMMA" argument doesn't hold because that only applies to the male competitors, who didn't have any precedents to guide them, whereas women have the men's game to refer to.

 

I basically told him that's a load of shit. Fight tactics and gameplans are all part of the package for a fighter, it's not separate from physical attributes or skills. If Rousey was beating Zingano and Tate, it's because her game was better than theirs; their abilities and prowess don't mean anything if they can't apply them effectively. Klitschko's clearly a better boxer than Fury in almost every respect, but Fury was able to use what he had to confound Wlad and make him pay. The blueprint being simple is bollocks too - it took long enough to figure out, and it would've meant nothing if Rousey had had the right attitude, dumped Edmond and gone to a decent gym to plug the holes in her game; her failure to evolve doesn't mean she wasn't ever any good.

 

He might have a point about the male competitors already providing a template for effective MMA, but then her competitors are just as much at fault for not following it well enough to be able to beat her, thus making Rousey still the best in her division during her dominance.

 

I am no fan of Rousey, but some of the shit people are coming out with is ridiculously hindsighty.

[Polish Dad]

People also tend to only focus on Holm's counterpunching & headkick finish.

Ronda got past that, but couldn't take her down. In Holm we saw someone do what others hadn't and that's stop Rousey from taking her to the ground. Ultimately, that feels like more of what won her the fight.

[Carbomb]

Yep. Holm's strategy wasn't just to use her best weapon, it was to stop Ronda using hers.

[Philjax]

I would never say that Rousey was never any good, and anyone that would is insane. She does however have a massive hole in her game, that of which appears to be is that her jaw is made of polystyrene.

 

The biggest shock of that early run though is still the Zingano fight who really looked like she had the tools to beat Ronda but completely blew it by running in like a maniac and getting taken down when she should have kept her distance and picked out a few shots, which now everyone knows is the way to beat her.

[lambyUK]

I would never say that Rousey was never any good, and anyone that would is insane. She does however have a massive hole in her game, that of which appears to be is that her jaw is made of polystyrene.

 

The biggest shock of that early run though is still the Zingano fight who really looked like she had the tools to beat Ronda but completely blew it by running in like a maniac and getting taken down when she should have kept her distance and picked out a few shots, which now everyone knows is the way to beat her.

 

See I don't buy this for one second.

 

She showed in the Holm fight, and the Nunes and Tate fights for that matter, she can take a crack. The shots she took would take out the majority of women in that division.

 

Rousey's problem was that she had absolutely no decent head movement at all. She took those shots flush and still wasn't KO'd cold. She basically got hit over and over and eventually couldn't take any more.

[ColinBollocks]

Aye, Philjax is being a little harsh and very much underrating the power Nunes has in her hands. Rousey got a battering in her last two fights, of course, but it was a brutal and perfect head kick that got her the first time, while a culmination of some heavy shots ended the last one. Nunes has shown during the last couple of years that her hands are to be feared, because only 2 of her 8 UFC opponents made it out the first round. Nunes has only lost one UFC fight too, against the incredible Cat Zingano - and how impressive is her comeback win with hindsight; different level of toughness.

 

Luke Thomas does a good job breaking down everything wrong with Rousey's defence during the fight. A punch or two in, Rousey essentially had all the movement and posture of a punching bag.

[wandshogun09]

Yeah, someone who had a bad chin wouldn't have been able to eat that many flush shots from someone like Nunes and still stay on her feet. She got fucking destroyed no question, but she took how many unanswered punches? Must have been in the double figures, and she still never went down. That's the opposite of a bad chin. Her chin doesn't seem too bad. It's her defence, head movement and footwork that's terrible.

 

I saw an interview with Herb Dean the other day and he said that Nunes undoubtedly has the most powerful punch in the whole division. And he's probably the best guy to listen to on that because he's probably reffed every woman in the division at one point or another so he's actually been in the cage up close to see and hear the impact. Nunes is an animal. For Ronda to eat that many of her punches clean and still be awake suggests that while there's plenty of problems where Ronda's striking is concerned, her chin isn't one of them.