Max Power Posted April 5, 2014 Share Posted April 5, 2014 Here's your Grand National winner: Â Firstly, no teenager has won since 1923 (none even placed since 1969), so dear old TIDAL BAY is eliminated. As is SWING BILL. Then at the other end of the scale, the drought for seven year olds is almost as long (1940), so bye bye TRIOLO D'ALENE and KRUZHLININ. On a similar note, only one eight year old has won in the last twenty years (the reason probably being that they lack experience of big fences and lots of runners) so ta ta DOUBLE SEVEN, BUCKERS BRIDGE, OUR FATHER, VINTAGE STAR, TWIRLING MAGNET, VESPER BELL and ROCKY CREEK. Â That's over a quarter of the field zonked due to their birth certificates. Onwards and upwards... Â The next Fonzie stat to take note of is horses arriving here who haven't run in a while. This usually means that they're revved up and mad keen as they haven't been out their stable yard in a while. Using two months (1981 the last time a winner hadn't run for more than this) as the cut off, this eliminates BATTLE GROUP, PRINCE DU BEAUCHENE, THE RAINBOW HUNTER, ROSE OF THE MOON and ALVARADO (note, some horses are in more than one of the categories so far, but as they're already eliminated I can't be arsed to type them again). Â The next thing to look at is stamina. Has the horse won over at least three miles before? Every winner since 1970 already had done so. Three mile virgins include WALKON, LAST TIME D'ALBAIN and HUNT BALL. Â Similarly to stamina, the amount of weight carried is also an issue. Only two runners in the last 18 years have carried more than 11 stone to victory, so I'll wipe off everything above this weight. Ta ra LONG RUN and QUITO DE LA ROQUE. Â The final negative trend to apply, is can they jump? Even though the fences have been modified recently, there's still 30 of them to navigate. Horses that have fallen on three or more occasions in their careers so far are not for me - COLBERT STATION and GOLAN WAY are discarded. Â So I've elimiated 23 horses, leaving me to work with 17 (deep breath), which is still a long list. To streamline this, 16 of the last 24 winners were aged in double figures, so anything aged nine is getting the elbow here. MONBEG DUDE, BIG SHU, MOUNTAINOUS, HAWKES POINT, RAZ DE MAREE an ONE IN A MILAN. Â Down to 11. Â BALTHAZAR KING WAYWARD PRINCE MR MOONSHINE TEEFORTHREE ACROSS THE BAY LION NA BEARNAI BURTON PORT CHANCE DU ROY PINEAU DE RE THE PACKAGE SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM Â What I will do now is eliminate horses who have never raced over the Grand National fences before - either this race, or thr four others ran over the fences during the year. This ciao's WAYWARD PRINCE, LION NA BEARNAI and BURTON PORT, leaving us with 8 - which is still probably 2 or 3 too many for a shortlist to be backing them now. Â The final round of cuts will be the three horses who have run in the race before (going against a trend I know), and blatantly did not stay. BALTHAZAR KING, SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM and ACROSS THE BAY have all run well before in this race for at least one lap of the course, but then faded late on when their stamina ran out. (Having said that, I would not be suprised if Balthazar and Shakalaka improve this time as they are now both aged ten, and so were running in the race before when they were young and perhaps did not have the required stamina). Â FINAL SHORTLIST Â MR MOONSHINE TEEFORTHREE CHANCE DU ROY PINEAU DE RE THE PACKAGE Â All are decent each way prices (apart from Teaforthree) and with a bit of luck, all should give you a good run for your money. As an added bonus, I'll even give you the order in which they finish. Â THE PACKAGE (finished third at Cheltenham and the two horses who beat him both won yesterday) TEAFORTHREE PINEAU DE RE CHANCE DU ROY MR MOONSHINE Â Even if 13 year old top weight Tidal Bay wins I'll not mind, because this has killed a lovely hour of work this morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members Arch Stanton Posted April 5, 2014 Paid Members Share Posted April 5, 2014 Well that's exactly what I was looking for, thanks! I've gone with your tips, but even if I don't win anything I appreciate the effort the effort you've gone to there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rey_Piste Posted April 5, 2014 Share Posted April 5, 2014 I stuck a fiver on The Package at 18/1, it was 30/1 yesterday, but I never got a chance to get to a bookies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members Arch Stanton Posted April 5, 2014 Paid Members Share Posted April 5, 2014 Nice work Max Power! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelEdge Posted April 5, 2014 Share Posted April 5, 2014 Officially done with betting on the National! Never won a penny on it from 15 years of annual bets, but that was fucking painful! Backed Rocky Creek to win and had an each-way on Mr Moonshine. Rocky was first and Moonshine was 2nd with 3 fences left, and they finished 5th and 7th! Gutted! My return would've been around Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Callum1993 Posted April 5, 2014 Share Posted April 5, 2014 Got Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Power Posted April 5, 2014 Share Posted April 5, 2014 1st 6th 12th 15th Fell. Â Four out of the five were still in contention coming round the final bend. Also, Balthazar King who finished 2nd was only eliminated late on when I was struggling to whittle it down to five. Worth the effort, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Power Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 It's Masters week!  Every winner since the year 2000,  - Made the cut the previous year. - Top 10 finish at either Pebble Beach or Blue Monster, Doral or Torrey Pines in the same season. - Aged between 25-39. - More than one top 10 finish so far this year.  Also,  - Since 1948, nobody has won the Masters without previously winning on tour (so no debut winners) - 8 of the last 9 winners finished in the Top 25 in the previous years USPGA tournament. - 13 of the last 14 winners all average more than 290 yards off the tee (it plays like a long course)  Shortlist.  Only one man fits ALL of the above trends, DUSTIN JOHNSON. He's a serial choker and he's just withdrawn after round one this week. But there's no point in doing all this work and then ignoring it. The following people appear in five out of the six lists:  Adam Scott Rory Mcilroy Jason Day Sergio Garcia Zach Johnson Jason Dufner Henrik Stenson Marc Leishman Charl Schwartzel Brandt Snedeker  Can discount some of the above though on other grounds. Rory is too short a price, Day has been injured and hasn't played for a month. Winners rarely go back to back, and Scott is too short anyway. Garcia hasn't got any balls in a tight finish. Dufner isn't in any form at all (he falls down on the stat of not finishing top ten at the tournaments outlined in point two above), same goes for Leishman. That leaves me a short list of:  D Johnson Z Johnson H Stenson C Schwartzel B Snedeker.  All the above finished in the top 35 last year, all the correct age, all have a top ten finish in either Pebble, Doral or Torrey this year, all have won on the tour before, all finished in top 25 of USPGA last year. Only DJ and ZJ fit all those mentioned, but ZJ doesn't average 290 off the tea.  Happy punting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoKonjic Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 FFS I scribbled shortened versions of the horses Max gave and when I got to the shop I ended putting my cash on Prince De Beauchene. Michael Fox on a bumper car has better handwriting then me. I want to cry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members Devon Malcolm Posted May 22, 2014 Paid Members Share Posted May 22, 2014 Stylin_and_Profilin - any tips for the BMW PGA? You're my personal golfing tipster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stylin_and_Profilin Posted May 22, 2014 Share Posted May 22, 2014 Sorry mate only just saw this. I didn't look too much at it but Kaymer was playing very well on the US PGA tour the past few weeks including the Players' which he won. I see Bjorn has just smoked a -10 opening round to equal the course record which is frightening on such a hard course; will be hard to keep that level up over four days and Kaymer is still 12/1 on live betting and only six strokes behind. Â On the PGA tour this week one i really like the look of iis Dustin Johnson for the Crowne Plaza Invitational. Been very steady tee-to-green the last few weeks i've been watching without finding that little bit of luck you need on the greens. He is 28/1 best priced at Coral last time i checked with 1/4 odds for 5 places each-way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members Devon Malcolm Posted May 23, 2014 Paid Members Share Posted May 23, 2014 Cheers mate, might have a pop at that Dustin Johnson bet. Much appreciated! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Power Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 It's World Cup time! Â Anyone done anything yet? I'll put mine up later, just having a bit of a neb on oddschecker to work out the best prices. A bloke I work with has Belgium at 125/1. He'll probably end up with nothing, but it's a hell of a price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Whole Show Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 Done a tenner on Argentina and Spain. Â Golddenboot picks thus far, Messi, Neymar, Aguero and Rooney. Â Potentially going to stick some cash on Higuain and Dzeko. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PBWFan Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 Dzeko looks a bargain at 100/1 with Paddy Power...plus 1/4 odds on being placed in top 4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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