UFC 238: Cejudo vs Moraes - Jun 8 🇺🇸

[wandshogun09]

Just got done with the weigh in. Haven’t caught much of the build up for this at all, just the odd Embedded and some interviews. As always though, the weigh in always does the trick of getting me that bit extra hyped up. 

Henry Cejudo vs Marlon Moraes should be fantastic. It goes to show how awesome a fight Ferguson vs Cowboy is that this fight has been pretty much completely overshadowed. This should be quality though. Both men are absolutely on fire at the moment. Both at the top of their game and coming off their best career wins. You really couldn’t choose a better time for these 2 to meet. 

Moraes by KO/TKO for me. It’s a gut feeling but it’s one I can’t shake for some reason. It should be as close to a 50-50 fight as you can get but I’ve just had this feeling, from almost the time the fight was announced, that Moraes catches him with something nasty and puts him out. Could be wishful thinking but usually I’m a pessimist when it comes to that. Granted, Moraes has never faced a wrestler the level of Cejudo before, obviously. There just aren’t any other Olympic gold medalists knocking about in MMA. But Cejudo has kind of fallen in love with his hands and seems to be buying into his own hype a bit lately to me. Plus he’s going up in weight for this, which is a big factor that nobody is even talking about. Look at that staredown, Moraes is noticeably the bigger man. And he’s got legitimate KO power. Yeah, won’t be at all shocked if Lego Boy wins but it’s Moraes by KO for me. I can just feel it. 

 

Valentina Shevchenko vs Jessica Eye is the easiest fight to call on this card for me. Jessica Eye is a huge underdog for a reason. She’s a decent fighter but you have to be a lot better than decent to beat The Bullet. Just can’t really see an avenue for Eye at all in this one. I think Shevchenko has her beat in pretty much all areas. 

Shevchenko by KO/TKO. I could see a fairly cautious and technical start and maybe Eye lands some stuff early on. But as the rounds go by I think Shevchenko will beat her down and systematically take her apart. Could be a really one-sided decision but I think Shev gets the stoppage at some point. Probably not a clean knockout but something like the ref or corner calling it to save Eye. 

 

Tony Ferguson vs Donald Cerrone is a batshit fight. Can’t see any way this isn’t some crazy war for however long it lasts. And you’d never know it watching the weigh in. They were laughing and joking, shaking hands and being all pally. Usually I’m not a big fan of that stuff but with these 2 it doesn’t matter how friendly they are. You KNOW once that cage door locks all hell is breaking loose.

The winner of this 100% deserves the title shot against the winner of Khabib vs Poirier in September. Never has the lightweight title picture been more straight forward and clear cut. Have the winners of Ferguson/Cowboy and Khabib/Poirier face off in December. But watching the weigh in, you could hear Cerrone saying something to Dana during the staredown like, ‘So the winner of this is undeniable, right? Right?’ And Dana just smiled awkwardly and never said anything. Fat prick. They’re going to give it to McGregor aren’t they? 

Anyway, Ferguson on points. It’s a complete shot in the dark though. I think Ferguson wins but fuck knows really. We don’t know how Ferguson has handled his personal problems away from the cage but everything has been looking good on fight week. If he’s on point, I find it hard to picture Cerrone beating him but stranger things have happened in MMA and it’s not like Ferguson never gets hurt in fights. And Cowboy is one of the best finishers in the game. If he gets you hurt, you’re usually fucked because he doesn’t let you recover. I don’t know. I’ll stick with Ferguson on points in a barnburner. 

 

Jimmie Rivera vs Petr Yan is a great fight that everyone is overlooking. These are 2 of the real darkhorses in the 135 division, especially Yan. Rivera has had mixed results of late but he’s still a fucking handful and was on a long winning streak until Marlon Moraes ended his fun. And Yan is ace. I really think we’ll be seeing him challenge for the title fairly soon. If he wins this, and in impressive fashion, I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s next in line actually. 

I’ll go with Yan by decision. I wouldn’t be massively surprised if Rivera outworked him to a points win but I like Yan here and I just think it’s his time. I think he can handle what Rivera throws at him in the grappling and on the feet I think he’s a different class.

 

Tai Tuivasa vs Blagoy Ivanov, I’m not that sure what to make of. Tuivasa is coming off his first loss so we’ll see how or if that effects the way he approaches this one. He doesn’t seem the type to mentally unravel but we’ll see how it goes. 

I don’t know, got a feeling Ivanov wins on points. I’d like to see Tuivasa back in the win column but Ivanov is a difficult rebound fight. He’s tough, he’s more experienced, he’s gone 5 rounds with JDS etc. I can see Tuivasa starting well but if he doesn’t end it early I reckon Ivanov pulls ahead and takes a decision in a lumbering brawl. 

 

Tatiana Suarez vs Nina Ansaroff could be a big fight in terms of title shot implications at strawweight. Michelle Waterson is most likely next in line but you’d have to assume the winner of this is next after that. 

Suarez by submission for me. Ansaroff is on a solid 4 fight streak herself but she’s never faced a grappler like Suarez and I think that’s going to be the story of this fight. I don’t think Suarez is unbeatable but that wrestling game is going to be hard to stop at 115. Unless she gets sloppy on the feet and gets caught, I see her overwhelming Nina here, and finishing it with a choke at some stage. 

 

Aljamain Sterling vs Pedro Munhoz is a real sleeper on this card for me. Could turn out to be a bit of a tactical chess match but I think it’s more likely to become a proper good scrap. Munhoz has showed a few times now that he’s not afraid of biting down on the mouthpiece and throwing bombs. We saw that in his knockout over Cody Garbrandt in his last fight. Sterling could be tricky though, especially if it’s more of a ground battle. 

Munhoz by decision though. I just think he’s more consistent and he’s in a good place now. He seems more confident than ever, but not overconfident, and I think he does enough to take it on the judges cards here. 

 

So full predictions;

Marlon Moraes by KO/TKO. 

Valentina Shevchenko by KO/TKO. 

Tony Ferguson by decision. 

Petr Yan by decision. 

Blagoy Ivanov by decision. 

Tatiana Suarez by submission. 

Pedro Munhoz by decision. 

Karolina Kowalkiewicz by decision. 

Calvin Kattar by decision. 

Xiaonan Yan by decision. 

Darren Stewart by KO/TKO. 

Grigory Popov by KO/TKO. 

Katlyn Chookagian by decision.

[jimufctna24]

The Ferguson vs Cerrone fight was ace while it lasted. It's a shame that Ferguson hit Cerrone after the bell. That stunt tarnished what was an amazing performance from Ferguson. Even if Cerrone had not blown his nose and closed his eye between rounds, the fight might have been stopped anyway. If not, I suspect that Ferguson would have continued to carve Cerrone up in the third frame and eventually forced the stoppage. Rogan and the boys just said that Dana is considering a rematch. Whatever, I am still holding out hope for Khabib vs Ferguson.

Cejudo put in an exceptional performance. I didn't see him winning after the first round. Yet, he showed his class in the subsequent rounds. It's a shame that he's a such cringe-worthy prick when he opens his mouth. I get that he wants to be in money fights (what fighter doesn't) but some of the fights he proposed were either not feasible or downright stupid. Does anyone want to see Cejudo vs Faber in 2019? Cruz is out until the end of the year at least. By that time he won't have fought in three years. Garbrandt is on a three fighting losing streak, and was stopped in all three fights. 

Edited June 9, 2019 by jimufctna24

[wandshogun09]

Did the show not record on Sky for anyone else? I set everything to record and even checked it again late last night to make sure nothing had vanished from the list of scheduled recordings (which UFC shows have a habit of doing). It was all fine. Got up today and sitting in my planner were the pre-fight show, the prelims and the post-fight show. Just no cunting main card. 

Does this happen to anyone else? I get that a show might disappear from the ‘scheduled to record’ list when a fight drops out or the main event changes or something, because the show title or info changes. But there was no reason for it this time. It just vanished. It’s happened a few times now and only with UFC/BT Sport stuff. I never get this with Boxing and Bellator on Sky Sports, or any other show for that matter. And BT want to charge extra for 239 next month? I can’t even watch the shit that’s included in my bastard subscription. 

Worst of all, in trying to find the fights to watch online I spoiled the main event for myself so just ended up looking up the results. So yeah, this was a balls-up on all fronts for me. 

Fuming is an understatement. I’ll have to catch the repeat later, which BT will have probably butchered. Smashing. 

[wandshogun09]

OK, found the videos and finally got to see the rest of the show. Think that was probably the best show of the year so far, to be honest. 

Cejudo vs Moraes - Hell of a fight. Watching the first round I really thought I’d nailed it in my predictions. Moraes was putting it on him and I thought the size and power differential were going to prove too much. But Cejudo came out for round 2 and stepped it up a couple of levels. As much as I find him irritating, I can’t deny that this was a fantastic performance. And as a Muay Thai bummer I bloody loved him bringing back those knees from the clinch. It seems like every time we see Cejudo he’s learned a new trick. Remember when everyone was shocked the first time he came out with a Karate stance looking like someone shrunk Lyoto Machida in the wash? Now here he is going all Pride Wanderlei. But this is an Olympic gold medalist in wrestling. It’s cool to watch him adding all these different weapons to his game.

Still a walking cringefest though. 

Shevchenko vs Eye - The result everyone expected. I think Eye realised from very early on that she was in way over her head here. She’d talked a lot in the build up and I think she was genuinely confident and believing she would win. But those first few body kicks were brutal and then when Shevchenko took her down she had a look of shock on her face like ‘what the fuck is happening?’ I said before the fight that there was nowhere to go for Eye in this fight, no safe place. Shev was always way superior on the feet and even in the grappling she just ragdolled Eye and almost got that kimura late in the first. Then the second round started and...

Fucking hell.

She set it up beautifully as well with the body kicks. The classic tactic of going to the body to get the opponent to lower their hands, then coming up high. 

🙂 🇭🇷 

I fucking love Shevchenko. The way she fights and her whole demeanour and the way she carries herself. Like after the KO here, she wasn’t running around going mental and screaming. She wasn’t surprised at what she’d just done. She was just casually strolling around the Octagon. Expressionless, emotionless. Just another day the office. Standard. She’s such a badass. She’s like Joanna Jedrzejczyk but even better and without the unlikeable bully traits. 

Ferguson vs Cerrone - Chaos. Just like everyone expected. It’s a shame how it ended because it was really shaping up to be a serious contender for FOTY and I think we were in for even more mayhem if we’d got a third round. Like Jim says though, I think Ferguson was on his way to stopping Cowboy anyway. He’s a machine. There’s nobody else quite like him in the sport. These last 2 fights against Pettis and Cerrone were both wars that ended on a kind of anti-climatic note but Ferguson is just made of different stuff and it’s the opponent who generally falls apart first. Pettis’ hand, Cowboy’s eye. Yet Ferguson always seems to come out of the other side wanting an extra round. He’s a fucking maniac. Must be a bloody nightmare to fight against. Dangerous as fuck, powerful on the feet, lethal on the ground, unpredictable as fuck, never stops moving, never gets tired and doesn’t give you a nanosecond to catch your breath or adjust or even just think. 

Jessica wasn’t the only Eye that got destroyed last night. 

I see Dana is on about doing Ferguson vs Cerrone 2. Usually I’d be all for that but you know why Dana wants that. So they’re both tied up and he can give his boy Conor the next title shot against the Khabib vs Poirier winner. Fuck. Off. Give Ferguson his damn shot. 

Yan vs Rivera - Thought this was really good. Yan rightly got the decision. I felt like he was in control for most of it and the knockdowns sealed it. But Rivera didn’t disgrace himself at all. He proper went for it and fought his arse off. Yan is an animal though. Mad what he’s managed to do within one year of signing with the UFC. I’d like to see him get a title shot but with Cejudo’s mad callouts it’s probably not likely. Failing that, Yan vs Moraes would be fucking awesome. Especially if they gave them 5 rounds. I know it might not make sense with Moraes coming off losing here but I think him and Yan would be an all-out war.

Suarez vs Ansaroff - Well, fuck. Worrying signs for Suarez here. Those first 2 rounds she looked every bit the monster she’s been hyped as. The relentless pace, the takedowns, the suffocating grappling and control from the top. The third round was a real eye opener though. She looked knackered and I really thought Ansaroff might get the finish when she started really tagging her at the end. Hopefully this was a case of inexperience and something Suarez can fix, if not it doesn’t look good when she starts getting 5 rounders against the top girls. I still think her wrestling is going to give most of the division fits and she’s young enough that she can tighten up her weaknesses. I like that she’s calling out the champ but I’d like to see her take a fight or two more first. At 28 and 9-0, there’s no real rush and she’s only going to get better with more experience. It was still a good win, but it’s one that she probably didn’t raise her stock that much in due to that bad third round. 

Sterling vs Munhoz - This was a quality fight. The bantamweights really brought it on this card. This was Sterling’s best performance yet for me. His striking has never looked better than it did here. He’s improved a lot if you compare it to some of his earlier fights. Munhoz is a madman and just kept coming at him, and the leg kicks were nasty. Sterling just outworked him in the end though. The right man won, 

Grasso vs Kowalkiewicz - Another really good scrap. Enjoyed this a lot. Easily Grasso’s best showing to date. The kind of performance many have been waiting for out of her since she signed a few years back. If she can build off this and really put it all together, there’s still time for her to make some real noise. She’s got a lot going for her. She’s still young at 25, she’s got an exciting style to watch, she’s Mexican, she’s pretty, she could catch on if she keeps winning and having fights like this. Kowalkiewicz is floundering at this point though sadly. She looked like a proper contender at one point but she’s getting beat up a bit too much for my liking these days. I don’t think she’s shot, but it’s starting to get that little bit harder to watch. 

Kattar vs Lamas - This turned out to be a complete showcase for Kattar. I had a feeling he’d win and possibly get a stoppage but I didn’t see him just blowing through Lamas in a round like that. I think I said in the opening post that I think Kattar has been a tad underrated. He’s looked really good pretty much every time I’ve seen him, especially in boxing exchanges. Looking forward to seeing what’s next for him. 145 is pretty stacked so there’s plenty of choice. 

Didn’t watch the Fight Pass/ESPN+ prelims but saw clips of Eddie Wineland vs Grigory Popov and Wineland was really looking sharp. Looked like he put a bit of a beating on Popov. Saw Joanne Calderwood lost to Chookagian on points as well ☹️ had a feeling it might go that way. Chookagian is very awkward. 

Top stuff pretty much throughout this one. Ferguson vs Cerrone predictably stole the show but I thought Cejudo vs Moraes was brilliant too. And you had really excellent fights like Yan vs Rivera, Sterling vs Munhoz, Grasso vs Kowalkiewicz on there which all likely would’ve got FOTN on most cards. All that plus Shevchenko busting out one of the knockouts of the year. This is in the lead now for me as the show of the year. 

[ColinBollocks]

Sheva with maybe the knockout of the year. DC did a great job explaining how beautifully she set it up. Of course the execution was sickening.

Cejudo is incredible. The speed of his improvement since the first DJ fight is mad and it appears he's still got more to learn too. 

[WeeAl]

I wonder does Jessica Eye remember her date of birth yet? She looked half past dead when she fell like a tree following that kick, her feet all curled up like Alistair Overeem's after big Francis removed his head from his shoulders. 

I was unable to find a working version of the show anywhere online and I only have access to BT via the app, which of course didn't have the fights uploaded this afternoon when I first went looking for them, instead they had the results spoiled. So I knew the results of the main card, just not how they won.

From what I've managed to see, Cejudo absolutely changed the game in that fight. He knew what wasn't working and backed himself to win a slugfest brawl. Marlon couldn't handle him once he got in close. What a resume Henry has now built up. An amazing fight too.

Cerrone Vs Ferguson was a complete war as expected. Cerrone took the first round but Tony was just getting warmed up, as shown by the second round. He's like The Terminator. I don't know how you stop him - and I guess that's why he'll not be getting the title fight. He's such a threat to both Khabib and McGregor. Tony needs to keep himself available, but I imagine he wants to stay active with the setbacks he has had the past couple of years when it comes to fighting regularly. 

Calvin Cattar, Alexa Grasso and Aljamain Sterling all looked great on this show too. I haven't seen the Tuivasa/Ivanov fights or Yan/Riviera, but might try and catch them tomorrow if BT have their act together and have them uploaded on the app, as I gather both were entertaining. 

[wandshogun09]

That’s the face I think we all made when Eye got her head booted off. 

It might be the knockout of the year so far. But although similar, i think the Rakic headkick on Manuwa in Sweden last week might’ve been even scarier. 

[David]

On 6/7/2019 at 9:12 PM, ColinBollocks said:

Cejudo appears to exists solely to wind up David.

My secret is to not watch him saying or doing anything except fighting. It makes it easier to stomach him, as he's a good fighter, but his patter is rank and his hair is ridiculous.

I may be way off, but I think Cerrone blew his nose on purpose at the end of that round. Someone if his experience doesn't make that mistake, not a fucking chance. He also seemed far too upbeat after the fight was called.

I think he knew he wasn't winning that fight.

[FourtyTwo]

1 hour ago, David said:

My secret is to not watch him saying or doing anything except fighting. It makes it easier to stomach him, as he's a good fighter, but his patter is rank and his hair is ridiculous.

I may be way off, but I think Cerrone blew his nose on purpose at the end of that round. Someone if his experience doesn't make that mistake, not a fucking chance. He also seemed far too upbeat after the fight was called.

I think he knew he wasn't winning that fight.

I wondered about something similar, especially with the strike after the bell - takes himself out in debatable circumstances, leaves the door open for a rematch, either on a later PPV or headlining one of the smaller shows - another payday.

Edited June 10, 2019 by FourtyTwo

[David]

4 minutes ago, FourtyTwo said:

I wondered about something similar, especially with the strike after the bell - takes himself out in debatable circumstances, leaves the door open for a rematch, either on a later PPV or headlining one of the smaller shows - another payday.

Yeah, normally I wouldn't second-guess a fighter, but he looked thoroughly dejected after that round, and then to blow his nose before reacting so theatrically to his eye swelling up? He's a veteran, he should know better than to do that.

I think he seemed happy enough to take the loss as a TKO and move on. Not that I'm saying there's anything wrong with that mind, if he didn't see a way to win the fight he's better off accepting the loss and living to fight another day.

[wandshogun09]

Look at these clips of Ferguson in the fight; 

The way he moves, the hand fighting, the way he rolls with punches and comes back with weird spinning shit. There’s nobody in the game quite like him is there? A striking coach would never tell you to fight like that. But Ferguson makes it work. Then you combine that with his insane conditioning and his freaky powers of recovery. He’s going to be a bastard to beat on this form. It’s Khabib I see as most likely to stop his streak. And vice versa, it’s Ferguson I see having the best shot at taking Khabib’s O. It’s why that fight has to happen at some point. If Poirier pulls it off in September, him and Ferguson would be a war as well. You can’t lose. But no doubt they’re going to force feed us a McGregor title shot and him in rematches with Khabib or Poirier don’t interest me nearly as much as the Ferguson options. Khabib vs McGregor 2 in particular doesn’t do much for me at all. We’ve seen it and I don’t think that sequel looks any different. But business bollocks, I guess. 

[David]

18 minutes ago, wandshogun09 said:

But business bollocks, I guess.

Is it good business putting Conor in there with Khabib again when he's likely to get leathered though? Surely it just diminishes his star power, no? I'd have thought giving him an attractive fight but one he could win would be better? Promote it as him "being back to his best" and all the shite that his fans will swallow online?

[wandshogun09]

No I agree completely. I think it’s really short sighted if this ends up with them throwing him in with Khabib again later this year. He’s getting fucked up every time there and 2 one sided losses to the same man would be pretty much him done you’d think. It would have to harm his stock. 

But I don’t think Dana or the current owners think long term anymore. If Khabib beats Poirier then they’ll just think ‘what makes us more money? Khabib vs Ferguson or Khabib vs McGregor 2. Conor it is then.’ But in the long term, another crushing defeat to Khabib might see Conor just fuck off for good. I’d much rather see Khabib/Poirier vs Ferguson and do McGregor vs Cerrone, Gaethje or Iaquinta. Plus if he fights one of them and smokes them then maybe you can spin the Khabib rematch a bit better and say ‘Conor is BACK’ and all that shite. 

But yeah, I think they’re going to go for the today money and they’re not even thinking about the tomorrow money. If the Fertittas were still in charge maybe it’d be different but the way things are currently I think long term planning at UFC HQ is a thing of the past. 

[Carbomb]

To be honest, given how much publicity McGregor's fucking about has had, I wouldn't be surprised if they were just thinking "Well, that's it then - he's on his way down, so let's get a pay day out of him before the Red Panties get skids on them." He's left everyone in doubt about whether he's even going to fight again with his behaviour, let alone as to whether or not he's still got enough in the way of fitness or hunger to keep him at a level to justify continuing giving him matches.

They're probably just looking to feed him to Khabib again, then fuck him off while they do the next biggest money fight of Ferg/Nurm.

[ColinBollocks]

I've long held the opinion that T-Ferg is a P4P great. His current win record is impressive regardless, but he's keeping it going in the UFC's deepest division. Who knows, Ferguson may never get a proper UFC title, but that shouldn't disqualify him from being argued in there with the very best. As wand points out, he's just a unique individual and something anyone should have nightmares about. Good shout for the best 'all-rounder' in the sport.

For me, and for a couple of years now, Ferguson v Khabib is the fight. Khabib with 27-0 v Ferguson with an unrelenting 12 fight win streak. Sadly, given the history of trying to get these two in a cage, the MMA powers will probably have one of them lose in devastating fashion before they meet.