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Crypto Currency


MPDTT

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2 minutes ago, gmoney said:

Sorry to hear that mate. Did you buy in at the top of the market? I hope you weren't unbearably smug about how you were about to make millions when it was riding high. It's a good lesson on investment, when tech bros on twitter , people in pubs and cab drivers all talking about an investment as if it's easy money, you know the bubble is about to burst.

To be honest, I've only lost about $3k in 2018. I've spent much of the second half of the year in tether. I'm just getting interested again as the BTC chart is increasingly making me believe that we bottomed on December 15th. Since then it has rallied by $1000 and whilst its still countertrend, if it continues another month, we'd be in an uptrend again.

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8 minutes ago, MPDTT said:

I'm just getting interested again as the BTC chart is increasingly making me believe that we bottomed on December 15th.

What makes you think that though? We saw a lot of dips and rises over 2018, none of which signalled an uptrend.

BTC is currently sitting at around the $4,000 mark today. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that it won't crack the channel between $3,500 and $5,500 throughout 2019. Lots of people seem to think that this was a Bitcoin crash.

It wasn't, this is it finding its level. The days of $20,000 per coin are long gone, and they won't be back.

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When I was housesharing about a year ago, this right fucking twat came in to live there. Never done a days work in his life and was driving a £100k Range Rover, flashy clothes etc (why wouldn’t you rent your own home if you had that kind of money?...well quite)

Anyway, told us he had been trading bitcoin and did we want in. I don’t have a pot to piss in so said no, my landlord said go on then as he was fairly well off and the chap said he could turn his £1000 into £30,000 in 21 days...cool. 

3 weeks passed and my landlord, a big lad, asked for his £30,000. “The market was a bit shit this month”. So my landlord gave him a slap in the kitchen whilst I was making cheese on toast, and said if he didn’t get his £1000 back in 5 minutes he’d call the police. Turned out he was into all kinds of dodgy shit, drugs, racketeering, extortion. 

So I’ve always loved bitcoin as it gave me the opportunity to see a 6’7” 25st man cry as he got a slap* and it was the most deserved slap I’ve ever seen, the man was a cunt.

*violence isn’t cool though kids 

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3 minutes ago, David said:

What makes you think that though? We saw a lot of dips and rises over 2018, none of which signalled an uptrend.

BTC is currently sitting at around the $4,000 mark today. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that it won't crack the channel between $3,500 and $5,500 throughout 2019. Lots of people seem to think that this was a Bitcoin crash.

It wasn't, this is it finding its level. The days of $20,000 per coin are long gone, and they won't be back.

It wasn't, this is it finding its level. The days of $20,000 per coin are long gone, and they won't be back.  Agreed, at least not in 2019. I do personally believe that the future lies in crpyto and blockchain however. I don't think Bitcoin will win out eventually. Ripple has a high chance of being successful, as does Binance Coin. I may just but some and put in cold storage and forget about it.

BTC is currently sitting at around the $4,000 mark today. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that it won't crack the channel between $3,500 and $5,500 throughout 2019. Lots of people seem to think that this was a Bitcoin crash. I suspect we will get to $4700 in the next week, maybe higher. The problem is there is (a) no 'new' money is entering crypto and (b) there are far too many shitcoins that serve no purpose and need to die off. I suspect a strong move above $5k and commentators speculating the bottom is in might start to bring in new money, in which case a move back to closer to $10k. But who knows......institutional Investment could see all-time highs by the end of 2019 or BTC could continue to drop to $1k!

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I don't think we'll see as much by way of institutional investment as was once thought.  

There's already major financial players who have recognised the true value of Cryptocurrency, and it's not the currency, it's the tech that it's run on. Blockchain is where we're going to see a lot of investment, with Ripple tech such as xCurrent already being used today. XRP as a currency won't amount to much more than a conversion store used between the transfer of funds from one traditional currency to another.

When people say that crypto is the future of money (not saying that's what you've said here) I have to laugh a little, because all signs point to that not being the case. Of course, that's not what the commentators and industry insiders will tell you, because their jobs rely on people buying into crypto and using the various exchanges that are around. If they told you the truth, which is that the current financial heavy hitters are stripping back the technology that makes crypto what it is and looking for ways to apply it to the current financial system to improve it, then the average Joe wouldn't be as quick to hand over his dollars to Binance or whatever their preferred exchange of choice is.

The number one thing that we're going to see come out of this crypto bubble is a much improved financial system, that boasts lightning fast currency transfer times and a level of transparency never seen before.

Basically, the blockchain technology will bring about a financial revolution of sorts, but it won't be of the type that the trad-currency anarchists are hoping for, it'll basically be the same as what we have now except even better.

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I've got a little Ripple held, somewhat in the red but the monetary amount is so small it's not worth cashing in. I'll just leave it forever and see if it rises. Unfortunately during the mass rise of the cryptos I was trying to play uber trader and fucked up more than made money which was sad as if i'd held the Bitcoin I bought in 2016 through to end of 2017 I would've been able to pay for my wedding and honeymoon out of it. 

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3 hours ago, simonworden said:

I've got a little Ripple held, somewhat in the red but the monetary amount is so small it's not worth cashing in. I'll just leave it forever and see if it rises. Unfortunately during the mass rise of the cryptos I was trying to play uber trader and fucked up more than made money which was sad as if i'd held the Bitcoin I bought in 2016 through to end of 2017 I would've been able to pay for my wedding and honeymoon out of it. 

That's a smart move in my opinion, as XRP is probably the one cryptocurrency that has the most going for it at the moment. As I mentioned above, the technology behind it is actually being used in traditional finance, and it will most likely be incorporated as the temporary store used by Ripple technology when currency exchange is taking place.

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  • 5 months later...

Again, I don't know what kind of logic is being used to claim that the "bottom is now in" when it comes to Bitcoin? What would make anyone think that?

Bitcoin has seen a rise for sure recently, but it's worth looking at the potential catalysts for that before we all declare that the good times are here again.

The reward that miners earn for mining new blocks is set to drop by 50% next May, from 12.5 Bitcoin to around 6.25 Bitcoin. We've seen in the past that when this kind of thing is set to happen the price of Bitcoin rises due to supply and demand principles. Halving occurs every four years, and in previous instances we've seen the price of Bitcoin rise during a post-halving bull run, but it didn't rise by as much or as quickly as people thought it would.

There's a belief that less rewards for miners will result in a chunk of them turning off their machines, meaning that Bitcoin becomes scarcer than before, causing a prise rise. This is the basis on which I'm operating as far as my Bitcoin trading goes. I've been slowly increasing my Bitcoin portfolio since the start of this year when it was sitting at just above $3,000, and will continue adding to it until May next year, just before the halving event takes place. 

There will be those who buy in late on the lead up to this event, looking for the price to rise substantially in the weeks following the halving event, which it may do. Personally, I'll be dumping about 60% of my Bitcoin holdings roughly around a few days before the event itself, as this is when the price will be at its highest I think (in a predictable sense), with people arriving late to the game anticipating that post-halving event bump.

The last two halving events haven't seen meteoric rises immediately afterwards. It took months for the price to rise, and I believe that in todays crypto climate of casual investors believing it's a way to earn fast money that after they buy in pre-halving event and sit there refreshing their balance once it all takes place, they'll inevitably be disappointed that the huge rise didn't happen immediately. 

If it does take place I'll still have 40% of my holdings to ride the wave somewhat, but if it doesn't, as I predict, I think we'll see a week or so go by before impatient casuals start to offload their coins in disappointment. This will kickstart a price drop, which will then result in other casuals losing their nerve and dumping as well.

At that point I'll re-purchase my 60% once the price drops, and will then wait it out until a few months pass and the scarcity effect actually starts to kick in, which is when we'll likely see a reasonable rise, boosted at that point by the usual types who buy in to something if they see it rising.

As for the "bottom is now in" talk though, that's absolute nonsense. The rise from around $4,000 to $5,000, then over that hump has happened in the last few months, with no levels in the meantime really being retested, so how we can say the bottom is in I don't know. 

I still think $3,000 to $5,000 will be the level that it eventually evens out at, save for the odd rise and dip due to events such as the halving event next year. When it will even out is a good question, as it's still incredibly volatile.

Looking at the technical analysis though, following the huge crash from $20,000 it's spent five months in the channel between the numbers I mention. If we see another dump in the future and it returns to that channel for a prolonged period of time then I'd be confident in saying that is its real value.

Anyway TL;DR - If you've been buying Bitcoin regularly since the start of the year, continue buying in regularly until May next year. If you're coming in fresh then the best time to start buying is yesterday. But don't hold all of your Bitcoin beyond the halving event unless you've got the stomach for a short-term drop immediately following. I'd advise selling off around half before the halving event, and holding the rest beyond the storm.

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