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UFC 220: Miocic vs Ngannou


wandshogun09

Who wins and how?   

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I have time for Schaub, and i do enjoy The Fighter & The Kid but his fight analysis is terrible. I think because he's confident and not afraid to voice an opinion it sounds like he knows what hes talking about, but for anyone listening who follows the sport closely you realise quickly that a lot of the time he doesn't have a scoobies.

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10 hours ago, ColinBollocks said:

The game plan was definitely to end it in the opening round. Like a lot of people, they seemed to completely underestimate what a beast Stipe is, expecting him to wilt as Ngannou swung with everything he had. However, to not have even bother or expect a plan B shows incredible stupidity and hubris from his coaches.

Ngannou said it himself post-fight. It seems its another case of someone buying into their own hype...which whilst stupid, is understandable given the buzz around him and the video packages/documentaries made leading in.

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For those that give a care (HEY!), Luke Thomas just said he's heard this did something in the 200k PPV buy bracket, which is obviously a big disappointment (and again highlights why CM Punk is getting another chance). Interestingly the UFC raised the PPV price for this show too.

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The Punk thing just seems desperate. Like Dead Mike said in the other thread, the minuscule shred of intrigue that was there when it comes to Punk in MMA is long gone. I can't see it doing anything special in terms of PPV numbers because who's going to pay to watch Punk get James Toney'd again? It's at the point now where it's a bit of a no-win situation because if he gets crushed again (which is obviously the most likely outcome) then what's the point? And if he somehow wins then people are probably going to cry fix. There's nothing to gain, except probably a very modest increase in buys from the norm. Is it really worth it? 

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It is definitely desperate, but it highlights the trend they're on with buyrates and ratings.

Honestly, it seems like they're paying a bit of a price for fucking about with their rankings and championships for 18 months, or so. I loves a big fight for the sake of a big fight, but some of the scenarios are just becoming silly now. Particularly the whole Interim title for the sake of it bollocks.

I mean, star power will always be king, that will never change on PPV, but they've done such a terrible job with everyone else. If the draw is just champ v no. 2, why should anyone care? The rankings are only worth anything when the UFC say so.

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Im not sure how much an interim title boosts a buy rating, for Romero/Rockhol it just seems a nice piece of window dressing to spice up the event. Im reading that Whitakers in a pretty bad way after a staph infection so he may be out for some time so it might not be as rash a decision to bring in the interim title as first expected.

As you said though, star power is the main thing that drives sales and thats what they are missing.

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Apparently, the new owners want title matches to headline PPVs, because. It's why we get so many random interim titles.

Proper daft move because, as you type Egg, I'm not sure it makes too much of a difference (particularly given how low buy rates are these days). All it does is devalue titles and the already wonky concept of an interim champion.

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He makes some interesting points, but he comes across like someone trying to do damage control for being made to look like a tit for his previous cheerleading.

I daresay Ngannou has a lot of work to do, and that it won't be easy getting his defensive wrestling and grappling up to a point where he can compete at an elite level, but come on - the guy clearly has ability that can be built on in shorter order than most other fighters. In this particular case, I think Schaub is talking him down because he's looking at Ngannou with himself as a lens; because he didn't have any stand-out, freakish talents like Ngannou's power, and had to work hard at everything (and that's not a knock on him at all), he's of the opinion Ngannou will have the same trouble.

I get that it's unwise to ignore Ngannou's failings, but it's just as unwise to completely downplay his strengths. Ngannou doesn't just have power, he has a whole audience of people and fighters who've seen his power. Consequently, he's built up in potential opponent's minds a picture that will make them hesitant to stand and bang unless their boxing is good, and even then they'll be reluctant to test that out for too long. When you have a weapon that people are on the look-out for and are nervous about, it means you have an advantage in that you know where the match is likely to go, and thus can plan your training and fight tactics accordingly. Of course, Ngannou could still be stupid and fail to do so from now, but to say he has no potential for an elite career seems ludicrous, and just as Kool-Aidy as what Schaub and Rogan were doing before. I could be wrong here, but I got the impression that there was no aspect of the game where Schaub terrified anyone, so whilst he does offer some informed and nuanced perspectives in general terms, I think his analysis is too reliant on his own understanding of himself as a fighter (and let's face it: it took Rogan savaging him on air to get him to really acquire that in the end).

In all, it just seems like his bandwagon ran into a wall of cacti, so he just turned it right around and has gone full pelt in the opposite direction, without even checking there might be cacti at the end of that road too. It's this kind of ludicrousness that erodes his credibility as a pundit, for me; even if he ends up being completely right about Ngannou, it's difficult to believe him now because of the hyperbole he's indulging in. He's articulate, intelligent, and relatively charismatic, but so's Dominick Cruz, and he's way more informative and measured. Schaub should take a page out of his book.

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The truth is, we really don't know what's next. We'll get a proper look at the future of Ngannou in his next couple of fights. However, you don't KO someone like Overeem in a round if you're as shit as Schuab is trying to now paint Ngannou as. Maybe he lacks the all round game to beat a Stipe (in the same way Rumble couldn't beat DC), but he's still very dangerous.

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And again, some of Ngannou looking so shit was down to Stipe. I doubt there's many heavyweights who could've done to Ngannou what Stipe did. They might have a decent takedown but would they have the cardio to keep it up for 5 rounds? Would they have the skills to evade Ngannou's first round thunder? Would they have enough power themself to keep him off and get his respect as Stipe did at points? There's probably other guys in the division with these strengths to give Ngannou grief, but do they have the combination of all of them like Stipe did? 

There are definitely some concerns on Ngannou and things he clearly needs work on coming off this loss. But some people are way too quick to write him off and it's a shame it's become mostly about how bad Ngannou looked instead of crediting Stipe. Because I don't see many other heavyweights who could've put in a performance like that against someone as lethal as Ngannou. 

Schaub's talking wet as usual. 

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5 hours ago, wandshogun09 said:

Would they have the skills to evade Ngannou's first round thunder?

Exactly. 

Ngannou is a very good 3-5 minute fighter, which in turn makes him a very dangerous heavyweight. A lot of heavyweight showdowns end up being shootouts anyway, so his limitations will often be irrelevant, even if he doesn't develop as a fighter. 

 

 

 

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It's kind of the old Rumble thing, isn't it? Everybody knew that if you could somehow survive that first round, were in with a shot. You'd have to eat a lot of leather and maybe a bit of shin but if you came out the other end then Rumble could be beat as he'd get slightly less scary as the fight went on. There was always a blueprint on Rumble. But how many guys were successful at implementing it? It's one thing knowing what needs to be done, but another thing entirely executing it. Cormier did it twice but had to walk through hell both times. Even Gustafsson couldn't weather the storm. 

If Ngannou amounts to nothing more than a heavyweight Rumble Johnson then he still takes out most of the division. Granted, he doesn't have the wrestling base Rumble did but you get my drift. It's easy for people to criticise after such a one sided defeat but honestly how many of the current UFC heavyweights, not named Stipe Miocic, do you actually see beating Ngannou? Maybe Cain? If he's healthy. Maybe Werdum? But he's inconsistent. As much as I love them both I don't see today's versions of JDS or Hunt leaving the cage vertically if they face Big Francis. 

People need to calm down on writing people off post-fight. It's as silly as going overboard with the hype pre-fight. I'd like to blame it all on Schaub but it's not just him. Fucking Ratface Florian was saying Ngannou doesn't even deserve to be in the UFC based off his performance against Stipe! And disappointingly Ray Longo, who I have a lot of time for, agreed with him. He lost to the baddest man on the planet and that means he's shit? Nah. Criticism is fine, healthy even, but some of the bollocks being said and written since Saturday night is a bit much. It's like people were just waiting for him to lose so they could pile on but I didn't see any of them calling it going on, they were all on his dick. 

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10 minutes ago, wandshogun09 said:

It's easy for people to criticise after such a one sided defeat but honestly how many of the current UFC heavyweights, not named Stipe Miocic, do you actually see beating Ngannou? Maybe Cain? If he's healthy. Maybe Werdum? But he's inconsistent. As much as I love them both I don't see today's versions of JDS or Hunt leaving the cage vertically if they face Big Francis. 

Aye, that's more or less my read on where Ngannou currently stands. I was about to conduct a similar analysis in response to Schaub saying it would be generous to rank Ngannou 5-6. I would favour him to beat anyone but Miocic and Cain; perhaps Werdum as well. Overeem, Hunt and the current version of JDS are favourable match-ups for him. 

A Heavyweight version of Rumble Johnson sounds about right. 

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