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UFC 216: Ferguson vs Lee


wandshogun09

Who wins and how?   

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1 hour ago, David said:

Seriously? I wouldn't mind seeing another bout between Aldo and McGregor before I saw Alvarez/McGregor again. 

completely forgot about Aldo 😂 chuck him on the list aswell.

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Given how Aldo looked against Max, I think McGregor would deal with him quite easily in a rematch. Aldo is an all-time great, but I suspect his best days might be behind him. Despite only being 31, he has a lot of miles on the clock. He's had a lot of injury issues, and has been in the game for over 13 years. Plus, McGregor is really really good; especially on the feet where the fight would likely be contested. 

 

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Lighter weight fighters tend to have a shorter shelf life than fighters in heavier divisions. Look at some of the greatest lighter weight fighters in MMA history; Gomi, Penn, Barao all had relatively short runs on top. Those divisions evolve quickly, as their is a high turnover of talent. Also, lighter weight fighters don't tend to age well. Again, look at what Penn and Gomi are like in their late 30's. It's not like Light Heavyweight and Heavyweight, where fighters can remain in their pomp and sometimes peak in their late 30's. 

Brazilian fighters in particular struggle with age/longevity. Werdum is an exception, but he has the novelty of being a Heavyweight. Werdum wasn't really known for getting into wars early on his career either, as he thrived on getting the fight to the ground (he was a shit striker in his early days, and I mean really shit) Elsewhere, Shogun, Wanderlei, and Big Nog were all past their physical peak in relatively early stages of their career. I wonder if it is something to do with how Brazilian fighters train. Most of us have heard stories about the gym wars that Chute Boxe fighters used to have. 

In short, the odds really stack up against Aldo. Especially as Max and Conor are now about; who are two exceptional talents. 

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2 hours ago, jimufctna24 said:

Given how Aldo looked against Max, I think McGregor would deal with him quite easily in a rematch. Aldo is an all-time great, but I suspect his best days might be behind him. Despite only being 31, he has a lot of miles on the clock. He's had a lot of injury issues, and has been in the game for over 13 years. Plus, McGregor is really really good; especially on the feet where the fight would likely be contested. 

Given how Aldo looked against Edgar previous to that fight I think how he looked against Holloway may have more to do with how good Holloway is now than Aldo slipping. Unless Edgar is really slipping, of course. 

For what it's worth I think Holloway beats McGregor at this stage, he's looking like the complete fighter that he's threatened to become for the past few years. I fully expect him to make Edgar look old and past it.

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2 minutes ago, David said:

Given how Aldo looked against Edgar previous to that fight I think how he looked against Holloway may have more to do with how good Holloway is now than Aldo slipping. Unless Edgar is really slipping, of course. 

For what it's worth I think Holloway beats McGregor at this stage, he's looking like the complete fighter that he's threatened to become for the past few years. I fully expect him to make Edgar look old and past it.

I think you underrate McGregor's ability at times David. Some of the hyperbole surrounding him is asinine, but he's still an elite level MMA fighter. I think he would deal with Ferguson, Diaz (at lightweight), and Aldo. I would also slightly favour him against Holloway. Khabib probably beats him, and Edgar is a nightmare style match-up for him on paper.

Aldo did indeed look very good against Edgar, but McGregor and Holloway are different styles of fighters. They are completely different match-ups. Aldo doesn't hold an outright edge in striking over either, which was the primary advantage he held over Frankie. Aldo might have good takedown defence as well, but that's unlikely to help him against McGregor in a rematch. 

 

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I'm about as big a Max Holloway fan as there is on here. I was saying he was something special back when he hadn't even really beat anyone and I really had nothing to base it on. Just always had a good feeling about him. But I don't see Holloway making Edgar look old and past it. People have been speculating on and predicting Edgar's imminent decline for a while now and he keeps looking awesome. It was the same before the fight was Yair Rodriguez with people predicting Edgar to suddenly fall off despite showing zero signs of it. And he fucking took Yair to school. I kind of get why people are doing it, Frankie has miles on him and has been in wars. It's got to catch up eventually. But I don't know why it'd necessarily be now. I'm leaning towards a Holloway win myself but that's because Holloway is fantastic himself and I really think he's one of the best on the entire roster right now. But until Edgar actually starts looking old and fading I'm not buying it. He looked tremendous against Yair in May. I don't know what would happen between May and December to make him decline. If Max wins I think it'll be simply because Max is so good and dialled in right now.

Regardless I can't fucking wait to see that fight. I'm not even exaggerating when I say I'm looking forward to Holloway vs Edgar more than Bisping vs GSP. 

I'd kill to see Holloway vs McGregor 2 as well. That's probably a way off though, if it even happens at all. But maybe if McGregor hangs onto the 155 belt after this Ferguson/Diaz/Khabib thing gets cleared up, maybe we get a McGregor vs Holloway champ vs champ fight. That's a lot of ifs and maybes though. And sadly I can't see McGregor coming through Ferguson AND Khabib with the belt still intact. 

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If Holloway somehow stops Edgar he's got to be high in the P4P discussion then for me. And in the running for Fighter Of The Year. Stopping Aldo and Edgar in back-to-back fights in the same year would shoot him to the top of all the lists. 

Edgar has never been finished. And if you look back at his 5 losses he's only ever lost to 3 men. Jose Aldo twice, Benson Henderson twice and Gray Maynard. The first Aldo fight was very close, the second Bendo fight was very close and the Maynard loss he avenged. He's very rarely been bettered in the cage. If Max wins at all it's a massive victory. But if he actually gets a finish, I think as an achievement it'll be understated but it shouldn't be. That'd be a mega impressive accomplishment. 

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I had Edgar winning the 2nd fight with Bendo quite handily. I haven't watched it back since then, but I recall quite a few people saying it was a robbery. It balances out though (in a way), because I had him losing against Penn in their first fight. 

Overall, no fighter has ever comfortably had the measure of him. He's lost decisively a few times (Bendo 1st fight, Grey 1st fight, etc), but at some point he's been very competitive with every fighter he has faced. For example. he was very competitive with Aldo in their first fight. It's safe to say that he can give anyone issues. As great as Max is - and he is great - I expect Edgar to take him to the limit. 

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19 hours ago, jimufctna24 said:

I think you underrate McGregor's ability at times David. Some of the hyperbole surrounding him is asinine, but he's still an elite level MMA fighter. I think he would deal with Ferguson, Diaz (at lightweight), and Aldo. I would also slightly favour him against Holloway. Khabib probably beats him, and Edgar is a nightmare style match-up for him on paper.

Aldo did indeed look very good against Edgar, but McGregor and Holloway are different styles of fighters. They are completely different match-ups. Aldo doesn't hold an outright edge in striking over either, which was the primary advantage he held over Frankie. Aldo might have good takedown defence as well, but that's unlikely to help him against McGregor in a rematch. 

I don't underrate McGregor all that much now. We've seen enough of him to know what he's good at, and what he isn't so good at. He's a top class striker no doubt, has functional kicks although not devastating, is a fantastic evaluator of distance and his cage awareness is top notch. He has no real ground game that we've seen, and has a questionable gas tank. He's done well to steer well clear of top class wrestlers, save from one fight where he faced Mendes after he'd been brought in on less than two weeks notice. That first round before Mendes ran out of gas was pretty telling.

That's not a knock on him, by the way, and never has been. I have no doubt that back in the day if the UFC had matched him with a Frankie Edgar, or a full-camp chad Mendes he'd have gone for it. I think it has more to do with the UFC looking to kind of protect their main attraction as best you can in a competitive environment.

We can all talk about Khabib's inactivity and suchlike, but we know that if given the choice, that's the fight that neither the UFC nor Conor wants. Why would they? The guy is a fucking wrestling machine, a legit killer. There's really no upside from that fight that can't be matched or bettered by taking on someone who has less damaging tools in his toolbox.

I also think he's relatively unproven at lightweight. One fight against Alvarez doesn't convince me as yet, and I think he has a ways to go before he proves himself to be a legit force at the weight. He was fast-tracked to a title shot, as it made sense at the time, but that doesn't change the fact that he essentially bypassed the dangerous obstacles that usually stand in the way of a shot at that title.

I'll happily admit that I've never really warmed to Conor as a person. He strikes me as ignorant and offensive. I don't care for his dodgy remarks about Nazi's, Cholo's and other uneducated bullshit that he comes away with. I think they get swept under the carpet by a lot of his fans because it's convenient for them to do so. I also don't really care for his constant touting how much money he has. I've seen it said that when someone of colour in the US does that they're derided and considered bad role models and so on, yet when someone like Conor does it it's funny and "just part of the persona."

That said, I don't underestimate him as a fighter now I don't think. I think he's a top five lightweight, and someone who could beat anyone on any given night. I don't think he's an all-time great, or even good enough to put together a run in the division though. He simply hasn't got the tools to do that, but I've said before that he could easily create some form of in-cage legacy trading wins with some of the best out there.

Sadly, I don't think he does that. I think he plays it extremely carefully, calling the shots that make the most sense to him financially and which carry less risk. Smart from his point of view financially, but as a fan I don't care how many cars he can buy, I want to see the top guys fighting each other.

This conversation has been done to death, but still. That's where I stand on the UKFF's favourite MMA fighter.

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6 minutes ago, David said:

I think he plays it extremely carefully, calling the shots that make the most sense to him financially and which carry less risk. Smart from his point of view financially, but as a fan I don't care how many cars he can buy, I want to see the top guys fighting each other.

He doesn't always play it carefully. He took on Diaz at Welterweight twice. If McGregor was being extremely careful, he would have only accepted the rematch at Lightweight, where he would have held a distinct advantage. Instead, he took Diaz on at Welterweight again, which was quite risky. I seem to recall you confidently predicting that Diaz would win the rematch. 

13 minutes ago, David said:

We've seen enough of him to know what he's good at, and what he isn't so good at. He's a top class striker no doubt, has functional kicks although not devastating, is a fantastic evaluator of distance and his cage awareness is top notch. He has no real ground game that we've seen, and has a questionable gas tank.

I agree with most of this. 

I particularly hold reservations about his gas tank. 

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46 minutes ago, jimufctna24 said:

He doesn't always play it carefully. He took on Diaz at Welterweight twice. If McGregor was being extremely careful, he would have only accepted the rematch at Lightweight, where he would have held a distinct advantage. Instead, he took Diaz on at Welterweight again, which was quite risky. I seem to recall you confidently predicting that Diaz would win the rematch. 

I'm saying he plays it carefully now, not pre-Mayweather. He has the financial clout that allows him to dictate how things go now to an extent that he didn't have before.

I did predict Diaz to win the rematch, simply because I didn't think McGregor was savvy enough to use the time-tested blueprint that any decent fighter uses to beat a Diaz brother. He proved himself a bit smarter than I gave him credit for, based on his absolutely ridiculous approach to the first fight.

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