UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski - May 8th

[Egg Shen]

i have to disagree a little Jim, i believe Glover got caught due to a smart strategy from Bader. Bader came out and shot a take down almost immediately, that would immediately have Glover second guessing his standup as from that point on he was prepared for Bader's shot, that Bader caught him with a punch is more a testament to Bader's attack rather than showing a gaping hole in Glover's game.

 

Glover didn't look great, but Bader came out like a house on fire and it ultimately cost him. Glover's stock for me stays the same.

[jimufctna24]

Not sure where Glover is, but his style for me remains very Pit-like. He is not a carbon copy of Liddel, but fight quite a bit like him, very loose and slightly unrefined.

 

EBB- You have a point, the bullrush at the start from Bader was smart, and did succeed. But Glover has been tagged before, and Bader did not show me much on his feet technique wise that indicated mush of a improvement, other than a half decent jab that landed a few times which would have had Jones licking his chops.

 

Pierce is one of the most underhyped fighters in MMA, he beat Hendricks and lost a close verdict to Koscheck. He should maul Palhares, who has been exposed in recent outings.

 

Only thing that really interests me on the above card is Erick Silva, Kim offers a stern test. The Jason and Maldonado fights should be entertaining, but neither are relevant for prospect development or contendership position.

 

Matt Hamill involved in anything in 2013 makes me jaded, the Main if it is boring could be a good laugh like that Heavyweight clash on the prelims last weekend. I hope Maia wins though.

[Egg Shen]

gotta remember Palhares is going to 170 though, fuck knows how that's gonna go but he could be an absolute tank at that weight. He's got a tough first gig in Mike Pierce.

 

Im with you on Hamill though, his return was strangely depressing. The main event is either gonna be really interesting, or really boring. I'm hoping to see a Maia masterclass.

 

It looks a fun card outside of that.

[jimufctna24]

gotta remember Palhares is going to 170 though, fuck knows how that's gonna go but he could be an absolute tank at that weight. He's got a tough first gig in Mike Pierce.

Palhares at 170 does not solve his problems though, being he has shit cardio and a limited game. His striking his sub-par, and now that people have figured out how to defend his leg locks, he not the threat he was once thought to be.

 

Even if he is a tank, I cannot see him being able to throw a grappler like Mike Pierce around or even control him.

 

I reserve the right to be wrong though.

[wandshogun09]

Palhares might struggle with the weight cut as well. He was a shortarse middleweight so the drop makes sense, but he's ridiculously thick. He's a funny build. He'd probably be better suited somewhere in between 170 and 185. Like if they had a 177lb division or something. There was very little fat on him at 185 and he looks like he has the kind of build that might be hard to drop bulk from.

 

I love Palhares though. And Pierce always comes off like a dick to me, so I hope Palhares rips his leg off.

 

 

Between these two, no limb is safe.

[jimufctna24]

I want Palhares to win also, and I am no great lover of Pierce, but it really does not look good.

[Egg Shen]

has cardio been a problem for him? (genuine question) Palhares fights tend to end with a round.

[jimufctna24]

has cardio been a problem for him? (genuine question) Palhares fights tend to end with a round.

He wears out quickly, see the Belcher fight. All those submission attempts are bound to gas him out with the amount of muscle he carries. He is quite easy to hit also, which is why his fights do not tend to last long.

 

He either gets his sub, or slows down and is easy prey.

[Egg Shen]

kill or be killed

[David]

Glover has to be next for Jon Jones, im not convinced he'll win, but the streak he's on means he has to be next.

I love how we're all completely dismissing Gustafsson as though he doesn't even belong in there with Jones. Whilst I'm definitely taking Jones as the favourite, I think Gustafsson gives him his toughest challenge yet.

 

Jacare may have just sent down a marker. If Weidman beats Anderson I see do Jacare vs Weidman.

I said when Jacare first signed with the UFC that he would pose the biggest threat to Anderson Silva, and that I thought he was the man to beat him. Obviously Weidman got the win first, but I still pick Jacare as the guy who could really beat Anderson properly.

 

His striking is improving beyond belief, and his ground game is obviously phenomenal.

 

As for the event on October 9th...

 

I just can't get excited about Shields fights at all, can anyone?

There was a time, back when Shields was considered a top contender, that I did enjoy watching him fight. His bouts with Robbie Lawler, Dan Henderson and Mayhem were decent enough.

 

Since he's arrived in the UFC though, he hasn't been worth watching. The fight with St-Pierre was a crushing blow to him, and I honestly don't think his heart has been in it since his dad died, after which he got crushed in less than a minute.

 

I fully expect this fight to go the distance, and I can see Shields grinding out a narrow decision win. I honestly don't know what Joe Silva was thinking putting these two guys together at all, never mind as a headliner.

 

I'm actually quite interested in a lot of the other bouts on this card, with some fighters I'm looking forward to seeing including Erick Silva, Rony Jason, Maldonado, Palhares & Damm.

 

I wasn't aware that Matt Hamill was still with the company. I know everyone seemed to get behind him because he was deaf and suchlike, but I've never rated him, even if he is the only man with a victory over Jon Jones!

[wandshogun09]

Yeah Hamill seemed a bit of a prick on TUF 3 as well to me. Bit of a spoiled twat. He really seems finished to me. He was never elite but there was a point where he was a solid midcard fighter. His headkick KO over Mark Munoz is probably his career highlight and he had a pretty good fight with Jardine as I recall. But he's looked done for a while now.

 

I agree with the Jacare stuff. I was saying myself that I thought Weidman and Jacare were the two biggest threats to Anderson at 185. It's not really the fight to make now but I'd like to see a Jacare-Rockhold rematch at some stage. I thought Jacare actually edged the first fight but it wasn't a robbery. I always thought he was the better fighter though and I think he'd win a rematch handily.

 

We are all overlooking Gustafsson, but is it any wonder. As good as he is it's hard not to look past him. He has good striking which is something Jones has proven more than capable of dealing with. His wrestling hasn't looked great in the past which Jones can exploit. He's been choked out before, Jones has great chokes. All he brings that the others didn't is height. And he's only got 1 inch on Jones in height. Jones still has nearly 10in of reach on him. It's just hard to see what Gusty does here. He could always land a big one but how likely is that? Jones has way more ways to win.

 

I realise I'm dismissing two excellent fighters here but I'm predicting right now - Jones submits Gustafsson in a couple weeks, TKOs Glover in early 2014, then maybe one more fight at 205 over the summer (Cormier maybe?), then heavyweight by the end of the year.

 

I think Cormier would actually be the toughest of the three but even then, it'd be a hard weight cut for him and Jones' track record against wrestlers is very good.

[jimufctna24]

I wasn't aware that Matt Hamill was still with the company. I know everyone seemed to get behind him because he was deaf and suchlike, but I've never rated him, even if he is the only man with a victory over Jon Jones!

I think its truly inspirational that a deaf athlete has found a success in MMA, I will never take that away from Hamill. As a fighter, he is the one of the most hard to watch and enjoy fighters I have observed. There is nothing slick of fluent about his work, and all his fights are very rough and sloppy to watch.

 

His last fight seemed like it came from a time warp to the days of UFC in 1999-2000, and I do not mean because Hamill was showing the skills of Frank Shamrock, more some of the lower tier fighters who would have a stinker on the undercard with their limited and unrefined skills.

[wandshogun09]

I've gone with Maia on points, Silva by KO and Pierce on points. Silva-Kim is the hardest to pick for me, because we've seen that Silva can be outworked on the ground before but he's also beat a bunch of strong wrestlers and will no doubt have improved since the Fitch loss. I've just got a feeling he might catch Kim early like Condit did.

[wandshogun09]

Maia vs Shields tomorrow then.

 

Few changes to the lineup;

 

Rony Jason vs Jeremy Stephens is off. Both are injured. Palhares vs Pierce has been bumped to the main card in its place. Also, Rodrigo Damm vs Hacran Dias has been scrapped because Damm was pissing blood or something.

 

Card now looks like this

 

MAIN CARD - (FOX Sports 1/BT Sport) - 12am

Demian Maia vs Jake Shields

Erick Silva vs Dong Hyun Kim

Thiago Silva vs Matt Hamill

Fabio Maldonado vs Joey Beltran

Rousimar Palhares vs Mike Pierce

Raphael Assuncao vs TJ Dillashaw

 

PRELIMS - (FOX Sports 1/BT Sport) - 10pm

Ildemar Alcantara vs Igor Araujo

Yan Cabral vs David Mitchell

Chris Cariaso vs Iliarde Santos

Allan Patrick vs Garrett Whitely

 

With the pullouts, there are no Facebook prelims for this now so we're getting all of it televised. And to be fair, main event aside, I think that's a pretty solid card. The prelims aren't getting my nipples hard but the main card is very good. If you took out Maia-Shields and replaced it with say, next month's Belfort-Hendo fight, I don't think anyone would be knocking this as a Fight Night card.

 

It's just that main event. I'm struggling to see how it will be anything but a slow, drawn out, frustrating, 25 minute chess match. Maybe it'll be a pleasant surprise but my hopes aren't high.

 

Silva-Kim, Palhares-Pierce and Assuncao-Dillashaw should be good. Thiago-Hamill I'm pretty disinterested in just because I don't see what Hamill brings anymore. He's not UFC level anymore IMO and when he retired after Gustafsson battered him, that was probably the right move. But here he is again.

 

Maldonado vs Beltran should be fantastic. That's the obvious FOTN pick on this one. But I've got a feeling Silva-Kim might be similar to Silva-Fitch so that might be the sleeper.

[Egg Shen]

i think the main card looks great. Shields/Maia is either gonna be a proper MMA/Jiu Jitsu-purists dream or a complete dud, just gonna have to wait and see.

 

Everything else looks good to me, Beltran/Maldonado, Dillashaw/Assuancao, Kim/Silva, Pierce/Palhares, all great looking fights.

 

The only other questionable fight is Silva/Hamill, but that's based purely on how bad Hamill looked last time out, still Thiago Silva rarely has dull fights. It's gonna be a quality little show.